If the Trump administration actually adheres to a bare-knuckle strategy of closing the strait and then keeping it closed for an extended period of time, the consequences for the wider region and global oil markets could be severe. As for the regime in Tehran, the impact could be crippling.

The blockade “will cost Iran approximately $435 million a day in combined economic damage. Being unable to offload its oil, Iran will be forced to shut down its oil wells, leading to permanent damage. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” according to Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

The lack of oil revenue is likely to crush Iranian imports from China, Turkey and other trading partners, which could spark another devaluation crisis for Iran’s rial. A previous devaluation crisis helped spark mass protests calling for regime change in January — protests that were brutally crushed by the regime’s security forces.

Mr. Trump has publicly warned China not to provide weapons to its strategic partner Iran, and questions are now swirling over the extent to which increased U.S.-China tension over the U.S. Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could once again delay the president’s planned visit to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

Mr. Trump postponed a highly anticipated visit to Beijing in April because of the Iran conflict. The announcement Sunday about the Strait of Hormuz is tied to wider U.S.-China tensions because Beijing is the top buyer of the Iranian crude oil that transits the strait. By ordering the strait’s closure, the Trump administration is essentially choking off China’s access to that oil.

China has a history of arming Iran. The U.S. has pressed Beijing for decades not to supply weapons to the Islamic republic after U.S. intelligence discovered that the Chinese military had sold supersonic C-802 anti-ship missiles to Iran. China was close to selling the Iranians more advanced CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles that are capable of defeating naval defenses before the start of U.S. and Israeli attacks. It is not known if those missiles were supplied.

U.S. military forces are set to participate in major multinational drills with allies on China’s periphery in the Indo-Pacific, even as the Pentagon remains preoccupied with the Middle East and the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. The annual Balikatan drills involving U.S., Philippine, Japanese and other forces, are set to take place from April 20 to May 8.

Japanese combat forces, which are participating in the drills for the first time, will fire a missile in a ship-sinking exercise in northwestern Philippine waters facing the disputed South China Sea, according to The Associated Press. Philippine military officials have said Japan’s defense chief has been invited to witness the live-fire drill.

The large-scale combat drills involving the U.S. and the Philippines, a longtime treaty ally, are expanding this year to include other friendly forces, such as those from Japan, France and Canada. Last year saw about 9,000 U.S. military personnel participate in the Balikatan. U.S. officials have not indicated exactly how many Americans will take part in the drills this year.

Mr. Xi “may be the most quietly resented and reviled Chinese leader since Mao Zedong,” according to Miles Yu, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute and an opinion contributor to Threat Status.

“In popular discourse within China’s vast internet user groups, Mr. Xi is often obliquely jeered as a buffoon obsessed with vainglory and power,” Mr. Yu writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. “A ‘Winnie-the-Pooh’ episode illustrates this dynamic.

“Chinese internet users began using the character as a form of satire, an indirect way to mock Mr. Xi. The state responded by systematically scrubbing references,” Mr. Yu writes. “It is a telling reaction. A system confident in its leader does not need to censor a children’s cartoon. A system that does so reveals a different kind of sensitivity.”

Preventing Iran from selling its oil, which accounts for as much as 40% of its government revenue, will “bankrupt the [Iran] and starve China of about 12% to 13% of its total seaborne crude oil imports,” writes Commentary Editor Kelly Sadler, who argues that “in a masterstroke, Mr. Trump now has huge leverage on China, Iran and the rest of the world.

“One hundred twenty-one empty tankers are on their way to the U.S., compared with 24 the week before the Iran war began in February, according to oil research firm Kpler,” Ms. Sadler writes in a Times column. “Last year, the average was 27 tankers. Kpler estimates that U.S. crude exports will reach a record 5.2 million barrels per day in May.

“Many of these empty tankers are traveling through the Panama Canal, which Mr. Trump secured from Chinese control last year,” she writes. “With Chevron now importing the equivalent of 250,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude oil a day after Mr. Trump’s ouster of dictator Nicolas Maduro, U.S. supply is abundant.”

• April 14-16 — The 41st Space Symposium for Government, Military and Industry Leadership, Space Foundation

• April 14 — Global Democracy under Pressure: Insights from Africa for a Changing World, Brookings Institution

• April 15 — Invisible Attacks: What’s Behind Havana Syndrome & Anomalous Health Incidents, Hayden Center

• April 16 — The Iran War Fallout for Financial Markets, Capital Flows and Sovereign Risk, Atlantic Council 

• April 16 — Investing in Africa Forum, Atlantic Council

• April 20 — Pakistan at the Center: A Year of Change at Home and Abroad for Islamabad, Stimson Center

• April 21 — Profiting from Chaos? Russia’s Energy Windfall from a Fragmented Middle East, Chatham House

• April 23 — The New India Conference: India’s Importance to American Interests, Hudson Institute