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Threat Status for Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump told Britain’s Telegraph newspaper he’s considering pulling out of NATO because it hasn’t helped open the Strait of Hormuz.

… Mr. Trump says the U.S. could end the U.S.-Israel war with Iran in two to three weeks, sooner if Iran wants to make a deal.

… He also said Wednesday that Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire, which the U.S. will consider only after Tehran allows shipping in the Strait of Hormuz “free and clear.”

… At the same time, elite American ground forces are in position for what could be a major expansion of the war.

… China and Pakistan have a “five-point peace plan” to try to mediate an end to the war.

… Strengthening U.S.-Japan-Philippines security ties should be at the core of Washington’s approach to countering China, according to a Center for a New American Security analysis.

… NASA’s Artemis II launch is set for this evening to send humans to orbit around the moon for the first time since 1972.

… Rich Cooper of the Space Foundation, which has produced a special Moon Briefing Book, says Artemis II is a “towering mass of engineering and aspiration.”

… And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has lifted the suspension of helicopter pilots who flew near Kid Rock’s house in Nashville, Tennessee.

Elite U.S. ground units poised to take action in Iran

An 82nd Airborne Division paratrooper participates in artillery training during a field exercise at Fort Bragg, N.C., on Aug. 26, 2020. (AP Photo/Sarah Blake Morgan) **FILE**

Mr. Trump has signaled his desire for a swift end to the Iran conflict, but the Pentagon is deploying the full spectrum of military forces for “maximum optionality” in the Middle East, giving the president virtually unlimited options in deciding how far to push the U.S. campaign against Iran. Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward examines how the 82nd Airborne, 75th Ranger Regiment and elements from the fabled Delta Force are already in the region, while U.S. Navy SEALs and two Marine Expeditionary Units are also forward deployed.

The full menu of possible missions ranges from a seizure of key Iranian islands crucial to the country’s energy sector to more complex operations targeting Iran’s nuclear materials. The prolific array of specialty forces isn’t restricted to the top echelons of what are known in the military as “tier 1” units. Operations requiring the support of conventional elements that have already been deployed are also on the table.

That could indicate that a crescendo is approaching, one in which a combination of forces delivers a final, massive blow to the Islamic republic. “It feels like the administration wants to end this on a high note, a finale,” said Michael Knights, the head of research for the strategic intelligence platform Horizon Engage and an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

How Iran is bolstered by CRINK partner North Korea

A man inspect the wreckage of an Iranian missile that landed near the West Bank village of Marda, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

North Korea’s mining entities have exported counter-bombardment know-how, digging a network of underground facilities for Iran’s defense. Its arms enterprises have supplied Iran with its key long-range offensive weapons: ballistic missiles. The relationship suggests that ties binding the so-called CRINK — unofficial Western shorthand for the links among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — remain strong.

The ties defy recent setbacks. The sudden collapse of the Moscow-backed Bashar Assad regime in Syria in 2024 and the Jan. 3 U.S. ouster of President Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela, a key Chinese energy supplier, showed the limits of CRINK’s ability to defend like-minded leaders.

However, CRINK states themselves remain securely networked. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine and massively sanctioned by the Global North, has received millions of shells, rockets and missiles, as well as deployments of elite light infantry, gunners and engineers from Pyongyang. Tehran has sold drones and drone technologies, while imports of Beijing’s dual-use industrial components have soared.

Hegseth: U.S. working to counter Chinese, Russian support to Iran

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks to members of the media during a press briefing at the Pentagon in Washington, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Mr. Hegseth says the Pentagon knows China and Russia are backing Iran in the war as steps are underway to counter the support. “As far as Russia and China, we know exactly what they’re doing, what they are or are not doing,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters Tuesday while declining to provide details.

Russian support for the besieged Iranian military reportedly includes providing intelligence for Iranian missiles. Iran notably carried out a precision attack on an air base in Saudi Arabia that destroyed an E-3 airborne control aircraft, demonstrating Tehran’s long-range strike capability.

A report by the Atlantic Council stated that China facilitates the transfer of both Chinese- and Western-made navigation technology to Iran, and Russia shares satellite imagery and modified Shahed drone technology that improves navigation and targeting.

Japan deploys first long-range missiles amid rising tension with China

The Type-12 land-to-ship missile launcher is shown at the Camp Kengun in the Kumamoto prefecture, western Japan, on March 17, 2026. (Kyodo News via AP)

The Japanese army deployed its first long-range missile to a camp in the nation’s southwest on Tuesday. It’s a major security development for Japan — a key U.S. ally — amid rising tensions with China, which has expressed increasing frustration over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support for Taiwan. The Communist-ruled government of mainland China seeks to control the U.S.-aligned island democracy.

The tension with China loomed behind the recent approval by Ms. Takaichi’s Cabinet of a record defense budget plan exceeding $58 billion for the fiscal year beginning in April. The Associated Press reports that Japan aims to fortify its strike-back capability and coastal defenses with cruise missiles and unmanned arsenals.

Tuesday’s deployment featured an upgraded Type-12 land-to-ship missiles, developed and produced by Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Japanese forces also deployed a hypersonic glide vehicle designed for island defense to Camp Fuji west of Tokyo. The AP reported that additional deployment of the upgraded Type-12 missiles and HGVs to other Japanese locations are planned by March 2028.

Opinion: China trying to leverage the TSA pay crisis

Travelers navigate their way through the TSA screening process lines at Louis Armstrong International Airport in Kenner, La. near New Orleans, Monday, March 23, 2026. (David Grunfeld/The New Orleans Advocate via AP)

Chinese state media have “seized on the Transportation Security Administration’s pay crisis as emblematic of American political dysfunction,” writes Joseph R. DeTrani, a former associate director of national intelligence and opinion contributor to Threat Status.

“The long delays, up to four hours, for passengers at major U.S. airports are, according to Chinese media, visible symbols of political gridlock and systemic weakness,” Mr. DeTrani writes in an op-ed in The Washington Times. “Beijing is using this issue and others to make the case that its system of governance, an autocracy with one man and one party in control, is far superior to the liberal democracy in the U.S.

“Yet the hundreds of thousands of people seeking permission to enter the U.S. each year is a testament to the opportunities and form of governance that are most appealing,” he writes. “Indeed, there is a reason there is no large-scale migration to China.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• April 2 — Fractured Fronts: The Iran War’s Impact on the Axis of Resistance, Middle East Institute

• April 3 — National Science Foundation’s National Security Mission for the 21st Century, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• April 7 — U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the Future of Trade Policy, Hudson Institute

• April 7 — U.S.-Turkish Defense Relations and the Upcoming NATO Summit, Atlantic Council

• April 7 — A Conversation with Portuguese Ambassador Duarte Lopes: Europe, North Africa and the Mediterranean, Stimson Center

• April 9 — Same Engine, New Fuel? China’s Economic Model and the Artificial Intelligence Bet, Chatham House

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