Politically Unstable: The Iranian regime's downfall is in sight

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Thursday, January 15, 2026

OPINION:

The demonstrations in Iran are at an early stage and could be what eventually brings down the regime, but the U.S. should take steps now, pressure its allies in Europe and the Middle East to express their strong support for the demonstrators and condemn the regime’s violent efforts at suppression.

Washington Times Commentary Editor Kelly Sadler is joined by Fred Fleitz, vice chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security, chief of staff of the Trump National Security Council and a CIA analyst.

[SADLER] How do these protests differ from the protests that have happened historically in Iran that never led to regime change?

[FLEITZ] There’ve been six large protests since 2009 and at least two of them spread to 100 Iranian cities. One of them resulted in over 500 killed. These protests are much larger, they spread much faster than the previous protests. We don’t know whether they’re going to succeed. This is a ruthless regime that has considerable capability with its military, with a revolutionary guard to use violence to put down the protests. But it is clearly weakening the regime even further.

I think each protest has a cumulative effect in weakening the legitimacy of this regime. And even if it does succeed in putting down these protests with brutal attacks, we could be talking about thousands killed. It really has destroyed the legitimacy of the regime. It is going to come down, hopefully in these protests.

[SADLER] Why are these protests different? What do the Iranian people see differently than they did back in 2019? What has led up to them? What has been the straw that could break the camel’s back?

[FLEITZ] Well, they started in the Grand Bazaar in late December because of the crash of the Iranian Rial, the Iranian currency. Iran’s economy has been in trouble for a long time because of mismanagement and very serious sanctions. One reason the sanctions are so serious is because the Iranian regime refuses to negotiate to end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. These sanctions increased substantially in September when the U.K., France, and Germany snapped back sanctions that had been lifted by the fraudulent 2015 nuclear deal. In addition to that, this regime was humiliated last June when Israel and the United States destroyed Iran’s nuclear missile programs, attacked government buildings, military facilities, and the Iranian military was powerless to stop them. The Iranian people know this. It hurt Iran, the reputation of the government, not just around the world, but with the Iranian people.

[SADLER] The Iranian government has imposed nationwide blackouts there. They’ve shut down the internet. It’s really hard to know what’s going on on the ground, from America, being an independent journalist. We know what the president has said. He said that if protesters are killed, there will be U.S. action. We know this week he has a meeting with his top national security advisers, the Secretary of War, the Secretary of State to discuss potential U.S. actions. The president has been supportive of the protesters. What should President Trump do right now?

[FLEITZ] Well, concerning information and electricity, this is what dictators and autocracies do. They cut information so demonstrators can’t talk to each other, so they don’t know what’s going on. So the outside world doesn’t know what’s going on. We really have to give a lot of thanks to Elon Musk for making his Starlink system available for free to Iranians so they can communicate. That’s why we’re actually seeing what’s going on in Iran, despite the government’s efforts to close off all information. And they are jamming Starlink, but there are some ways around that. It’s a satellite-based system. You have to have a receiver to use it. There are ways to jam it, but it’s difficult, and it’s frankly dangerous. They have to use microwaves to jam it.

But I think a very important aspect of these demonstrations is the strong support of President Trump. You may remember in 2009 and in 2022 when there were large demonstrations, Obama and Biden did not stand with the Iranian people. Obama was afraid to during very large demonstrations when Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent presidential re-election was protested. Obama didn’t want to offend the regime because he wanted to negotiate his fraudulent nuclear deal. President Trump’s standing with the demonstrators is very important. It shows them that they’re not alone, but the U.S. has to do more. Europe has not said nearly enough. We need to have every European leader making it clear that this is unacceptable and that they stand with these protesters.

[SADLER] One of the funny things to me is everyone stands with Ukraine, but at the Golden Globes, there was barely a mention of what’s happening in Iran. And also, from the mainstream media the biggest story heading into this week were ICE protests happening out in Minneapolis and the clash between them and the protesters, nothing really being said or mentioned about what’s happening in the Middle East, which could be very formative, no?

[FLEITZ] It’s scandalous. These are people who are risking their lives for freedom. They will be executed for protesting if the Iranian government arrests them. Unfortunately, there’s politics here. I think many on the left and the mainstream media, they don’t want to stand with the demonstrators because Trump stands with the demonstrators. It’s outrageous. And fortunately, that’s starting to change. Even with the BBC, you probably heard reports, the BBC was not putting news about this on their website. Instead, they were talking about that ICE incident in Minnesota, popular pressure in the U.K. forced the BBC to change their tune. I hope that happens in this country, too.