Democrats dare again to dream in Texas’ U.S. Senate race

The last time a Democrat won statewide in Texas was in 1994. Jeff Bezos was just launching Amazon. The sitcom “Friends” was brand new. The image of O.J. Simpson’s slow-moving white Bronco was seared into the national consciousness.

Donald Trump was giving more money to Democrats than Republicans.

Three decades of losing will wear on any party, but Texas Democrats are daring to dream again and say they have real reason to in this year’s U.S. Senate race.

Democrats have been pointing to stronger-than-expected showings in 2018 and 2020 as signs that the state is slowly moving their way. Now, they argue, the national political environment could be shifting in their favor.

Just weeks ago, a Democrat named Taylor Rehmet, a union leader and Air Force veteran, walked into a Fort Worth area state Senate district that Mr. Trump won by 17 percentage points and walked out the winner by 14 points. The entire political world took note.

“If you can squint, you can see it,” said Luke Warford, a Texas-based Democratic political strategist who ran for statewide office in 2022. “Just to be really clear, most years you can’t see it, even if you squint. This year, you actually can. That’s really meaningful. It’s really different.”

Primary wrangling

Early voting is underway in the March 3 primary.

Among Republicans, Sen. John Cornyn is fending off challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. With no candidate likely to clear a majority, the race is headed for a two-person runoff in May.

Among Democrats, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a hard-fought contest. Whoever wins will have a steep climb ahead.

Still, Democratic optimism has been building for months, fed by a mix of factors: Mr. Trump’s sagging poll numbers, voters’ sour mood on the economy, and the real possibility that Republicans nominate Mr. Paxton, a candidate who carries heavy personal baggage, including a messy divorce and allegations of an extramarital affair.

The Fort Worth upset poured fuel on the Democrats’ fire.

Independents swung hard toward Mr. Rehmet. He also picked up significant Republican voters. Democrats say they saw a notable shift in Hispanic precincts, which they see as a sign that Mr. Trump’s coalition may be starting to crack.

Another Texas-based Democratic political strategist sees something broader at work. He argues that voters are waking up to a system that feels rigged, allowing the wealthy to keep pulling away while everyone else treads water. Under Mr. Trump, he said, that frustration has found a face.

“There’s a class of people who live by a different set of rules. No matter how hard you work, you can’t get ahead. Your costs go up. Life gets harder. And then you get stopped and asked for your papers,” he said, alluding to the administration’s immigration crackdown.

Democrats’ complicated formula

Ross Hunt, a Republican political strategist in Texas, said a “bunch of things” have to align for Democrats to end their statewide political drought. The formula would require maximizing base turnout, winning more than 60% of independents and peeling off roughly 15% of Republican voters.

A Paxton nomination, he added, would give Democrats their best shot. He said Mr. Paxton is “intensely disliked” by many independents and certain Republicans.

He said that with Republicans controlling the White House, Congress, every statewide office in Texas and the state Legislature, “it is natural for there to be a pendulum swing back against us. I’m actually surprised it has taken so long.”

The Republican National Committee is less philosophical and more confident that a Republican will hold the seat.

“Texas is a solidly red state and will continue to be in 2026,” said RNC spokesman Zach Kraft. “Any Democrat suggesting otherwise is selling a pipe dream.”

“The Lone Star State will not break its 32-year Republican streak to elect a radical left-wing candidate like Jasmine Crockett or a snake oil salesman like James Talarico,” he said.

Former Rep. Allen West, chairman of the Dallas County Republican Party, was equally blunt. He said Ms. Crockett’s sharp rhetoric will make it impossible for her to build a winning coalition, and Mr. Talarico’s attempts to court Christian voters won’t survive scrutiny. “We call that woke Jesus,” Mr. West said. “And woke Jesus is not going to play well in Texas.”

He argued that Democrats’ message on the economy, immigration and energy simply doesn’t sell in rural Texas and that Democrats are overestimating their appeal in the cities.

“They’re on the wrong side of all the issues that matter here in the state of Texas,” Mr. West said.

Where’s the ‘Beto magic’?

Analysts say Democrats have real reasons to feel upbeat.

Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Democrats may be better positioned now than they were in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke captured the party’s imagination before losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.5 percentage points.

“Trump is more of a liability in 2026 than he was in 2018, and Paxton would be a notably weaker candidate than Cruz,” Mr. Jones said.

He added a caveat: Nobody is going to re-create the Beto magic. That was a once-in-a-generation convergence: the right candidate at the right moment, someone who sneaked up on Republicans before they had a chance to define him.

Democrats aren’t waiting for another Beto O’Rourke. They say both Mr. Talarico and Ms. Crockett can create their own magic.

They credit the candidates with putting distance between themselves and a national Democratic brand that doesn’t sell well in much of the state.

Mr. Talarico, who leans into his Christian faith, and Ms. Crockett, who positions herself as an anti-establishment fighter, are trying to make the case that they are not typical Washington Democrats. After Fort Worth, Democrats at least have reason to believe that pitch can work.

“We clearly see that candidates who perform the best are able to make the case like, ‘I’m a different type of Democrat,’” Mr. Warford said. “In both the Crockett and Talarico cases, there’s a leg to stand on in making that argument.”

Still, Mr. Warford openly acknowledged that the stars will have to align for Democrats to win. “But I can explain to you, rationally, how they might this year,” he said.