OPINION:
It looks like Democrats won Tuesday in Virginia with the narrow passage of their gerrymandered congressional district map — but did they, really?
Voters approved the map by a slim 51.5% majority, ditching a far more accurate 11-district configuration of six Democrats and five Republicans in favor of one with 10 Democrats and only a single Republican seat.
The close vote proved how extreme the gerrymandered map truly is. Even though it barely squeaked through, it will hand control of 91% of Virginia to one party.
Before the election could be certified, however, a state court declared the referendum unconstitutional and struck it down. This places the matter in the hands of the Virginia Supreme Court, which declined to get involved before the election.
We can only speculate about what the court will do, but the vote totals themselves give us clues to what this might mean nationally in the midterms.
Aside from the specific congressional seats in question in Virginia, what does this say about the big picture and control of Congress?
James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff who has stepped outside the administration to run President Trump’s midterm operation, broke it down on CNN and made a convincing case that the numbers weren’t encouraging for Democrats despite the win.
Mr. Blair pointed out that the referendum passed by only 3 percentage points, a dozen points behind Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s 15-point blowout win for Virginia governor just five months ago.
It was also 5 points behind the Democratic winner in the state attorney general race last year.
Democrats prevailed Tuesday only because they own Fairfax County, the densely populated stronghold that will anchor no fewer than five of the new districts that reach deep into rural Virginia.
People opposed to the gerrymander actually managed to win three of the new districts, came within 0.3% of winning the notorious one shaped like a lobster, and kept two others to within 5 points.
So, yes, the Democrats won, but even they have to be wary of the margins.
“If Republicans perform anywhere near on average the way they did in Virginia, we not only add seats to the Senate, but we add seats to the House,” Mr. Blair said on CNN. “And we have a historic midterm.”
Though you won’t hear it discussed much by their allies in the news media, it’s undeniably true and not just spin that Democrats ran behind their recent benchmarks in Virginia this week.
It’s because of the policies they pursue once elected, but they will never acknowledge it to themselves.
Just look at what has happened to Ms. Spanberger in Virginia.
She sailed into office with a mandate to follow the moderate course she had charted during her campaign. Yet as soon as she took the oath in January, she veered sharply left and got rolled by the most extreme elements of her party, who seized control of the agenda at the Capitol in Richmond, making it known that they were in charge.
As a result, Ms. Spanberger went from winning by more than two touchdowns to holding the worst early-term approval ratings of any Virginia governor dating back decades.
You think that didn’t hurt the referendum at the polls? You bet it did, and she became unpopular because of her party’s policies.
The reason is clear: Democrats are wrong on the issues that voters care about, and Republicans are right.
Polls say people trust Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans over Democrats on the important issues that move people, and that’s what the midterms are going to be about.
Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans have a record of keeping taxes low and rescuing the economy from Democratic excesses. Voters understand that Democrats’ policies caused inflation to skyrocket.
People know that Democrats support open borders and will refuse to enforce immigration laws if they gain power in Congress.
They have witnessed Democrats happily turn violent criminals loose in communities, costing the lives of law-abiding Americans and threatening the safety of all citizens.
They also have seen Democrats side with transgender activists and place our children at risk while they are at school.
Democrats have been giddy about the politics in Virginia for a while now, and they still publicly discuss the governor as a model for other candidates to emulate in the coming elections. Still, they are oblivious to the fact that Ms. Spanberger exemplifies Democratic arrogance and insistence on policies people didn’t vote for and don’t want.
While they spike the football and celebrate their Virginia victory (such as it may be) this week, Democrats are failing to realize that the midterm contest is still in the first half and their game plan isn’t nearly as good as they think it is.
• Tim Murtaugh is a Washington Times columnist and founder of Line Drive Public Affairs. He served as a senior adviser on the 2024 Trump campaign and as communications director on the 2020 Trump campaign.
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