Hispanic groups warn Trump’s ICE surge could ‘nullify’ GOP’s Texas congressional goals

Republicans may not be able to make good on the five seats they hope to net from Texas’ new congressional map, according to an immigration group that says the party is counting on Hispanics, who are slipping away.

American Business Immigration Coalition Action said Texas Republicans were counting on strong Hispanic support when they drew new lines last year, but that support is wavering amid President Trump’s “enforcement first” approach to immigration and could “nullify” the Republicans’ expected gains.

“Specifically, four out of five newly drawn Republican-leaning districts would instead favor Democrats, placing two incumbent Republican Congressmen at serious risk of defeat,” ABIC Action and Comite de 100, a coalition of Hispanic business leaders, said in a memo being reported first by The Washington Times.

During a special runoff election this month in Tarrant County, Texas, a Democrat won by double digits and flipped a state Senate seat. The key, analysts said, was the Hispanic vote, which appears to have consolidated behind the Democrat.

It was a major comedown for the Republican Party, which had massive gains among Hispanics, particularly in Texas, in 2024.

“The Republican Party, they finally got the Latino vote. Well, they’re going to lose it all by the overenforcement of ICE,” Massey Villarreal, a member of both ABIC and the Comite de 100, told The Times.

He called the Tarrant County election “the first land mine that went off.”

The groups said the slide is also apparent elsewhere.

In Miami, a Democrat won the mayoral race for the first time in nearly three decades.

In New Jersey, Hispanic-heavy Passaic County swung from a 3-percentage-point victory for Mr. Trump in 2024 to a nearly 15-point lead for Democrat Mikie Sherrill in the governor’s election last year.

In the Virginia governor’s race, the city of Manassas Park swung nearly 22 points to the left from the 2024 presidential vote.

Mr. Villarreal said the problem is more than Hispanic worries about getting snared in deportation arrests. He said Texas’ economy has been damaged, with construction sites going idle and businesses struggling to fill some service jobs.

ABIC said Mr. Trump needs to reverse course.

“Latino voters are demanding action on work permits and legal standing for long-term, law-abiding residents to strengthen our economy and communities,” said Rebecca Shi, ABIC Action’s CEO. “This is a wake-up call to meet the expectations of Latino voters for commonsense solutions, not senseless deportations.”

Exit polling from 2024 showed Mr. Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said the election was a high-water mark for Republicans, fueled by antipathy toward President Biden’s economic performance, the porous border and lack of enthusiasm for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

“You put it all together, and I think it would have been unrealistic to assume Republicans would somehow retain the support among Latinos they achieved in 2024,” Mr. Jones said. “The question really is how far it will fall.”

He said a best-case scenario would be a split with Democrats. More likely, he said, Republicans will win 40% to 45% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

How that plays out with the new map and its 38 congressional seats is up for debate.

Under the old map, Mr. Trump won 27 districts. Under the new map, he would prevail in 30. Two others were shifted to make Republicans more competitive.

ABIC says a 10-point swing in Hispanic support from Republicans to Democrats would flip at least two redrawn districts leaning from Republican to Democratic and would significantly reduce the Republican advantage in two other redrawn seats.

A 15-point swing would flip four seats and imperil two Republican incumbents: Reps. Tony Gonzales and Monica De La Cruz.

Mr. Jones said one of the Republicans’ target seats in the redistricting, that of Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, was always going to be a stretch, particularly after Mr. Trump pardoned the congressman’s bribery and money laundering charges.

Mr. Jones said the outcomes of the races in some of the other redrawn districts will depend on the nominees who emerge.

He said Ms. De La Cruz is the Republican whose district is most affected by redistricting. If Hispanics vote at 2024 Trump levels, Mr. Jones said, then she will win handily. If it’s closer to 2018, the last midterm election with Mr. Trump in the White House, then she is in trouble.

Mr. Jones said immigration enforcement is an issue at the margins, but a bigger factor for Hispanic voters in South Texas is the economy. If Hispanics aren’t showing up for work or aren’t shopping as much, then immigration policy could play a role.

Mr. Villarreal said Mr. Trump needs to “moderate” his enforcement approach. He said voters are eager to see illegal immigrants with criminal records booted but want “Dreamers” and workers protected.

“We need those labor positions, we need those hospitality workers,” he told The Times.