IRGC commander is ‘current decision maker’ in Iran, says think tank report

Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has emerged as Tehran’s “current decision maker,” according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War think tank.

Gen. Vahidi says Iran is winning the war against the U.S., despite the damage it has sustained since the start of the U.S.-Israeli air campaign on Feb. 28.

Iran’s latest proposal to end the fighting doesn’t address its nuclear program or claims of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Both issues are central to the Trump administration’s justification for the conflict.

The Islamic republic’s growing challenges in storing and exporting oil could be a lever to force Iran to alter its diplomatic calculations, the ISW said this week.

“Iran also faces significant pressure on other parts of its economy,” the think tank said. “It is unclear, however, whether this pressure on Iran’s economy will cause Vahidi and his inner circle to make concessions to the United States.”

Iranian officials are preparing for political protests amid economic decline and rising social pressure. Tehran’s decision to shut down the internet is accelerating unemployment, which likely will increase pressure on the regime’s stability, the ISW said.

Struggles between different factions in the government — “pragmatic” hardliners and “ultra” hardliners — indicate a power vacuum, which is allowing such disputes to unfold publicly, the think tank said.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, appears to be trying to remain a key actor in negotiations with the U.S., despite signs of opposition from Gen. Vahidi and his inner circle, the ISW said.

“Iran continues to cooperate with key U.S. adversaries, such as Russia and China, as it prepares for a potential resumption of conflict with the United States and Israel,” the ISW said.