OPINION:
Affordability offers Democrats a big club for the midterm elections.
Voters are focused on high prices for essentials such as gasoline, groceries, housing and childcare. What should count is how well wages have kept up with overall inflation and the fact that workers are doing better under President Trump.
Since January 2025, wages have outpaced prices by 0.8%. Over the prior five years, real wages were up only 2.3%, or less than 0.5% a year.
Republicans’ problem is that prices for many things voters can’t or won’t do without are up a lot. Often, no politician can solve the underlying cause.
Climate change is a big factor. Coffee and beef prices are up more than 50% since just before COVID-19. Much of our coffee comes from Brazil and Vietnam.
Those countries suffered droughts in 2024 and 2025, and Brazilian farmers are switching from Arabica, which Americans ordinarily drink, to more heat-tolerant Robusto.
Droughts in the American West have reduced cattle herds by 40% over the past half-century. Fewer animals can be maintained through grazing, which produces the lean grades of beef Americans prefer.
Nowadays, we may eat less beef per person, but Americans still like a good steak. With a much larger population, demand outstrips supply.
Since January 2020, the consumer price index has been up 27%, but lettuce prices have soared 38%.
California growers are plagued by climate-change-driven floods and drought, diseases and labor shortages.
We can’t blame the heat for labor shortages.
During the first Trump and Biden administrations, the economy grew by 2.5% a year, with significant contributions from immigrant workers.
The labor force added 3.7 million native-born Americans and 5.0 million foreign workers.
Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House and implemented mass deportations, the availability of foreign workers has declined. That creates headaches for California fruit and vegetable farmers, meatpackers, home and commercial builders, and the child- and eldercare industries.
Immigrant labor shortages are likely raising prices for most domestically produced food products by raising labor costs for farmers, food processors and grocers.
Mr. Trump has conceded that perhaps his deportation campaign has gone too far; the administration should just confine itself to criminals and others posing threats. According to a February Washington Post/ABC News survey, 58% of Americans agree, up from 48% a year ago.
Yet U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is converting a fleet of warehouses into detention centers capable of accommodating 92,000 guests.
If I were a young Democrat running against an incumbent House Republican, I would film a commercial alongside one of those warehouses and say, “Congressman Smith wants to store your cleaning lady here — then ship her out.”
Similarly, Mr. Trump has raised the average tariff on imports from 2.6% to 13%. Those increase the costs of materials by about $10,000 per new home.
Ninety percent of the burden of tariffs is falling on U.S. businesses and consumers. As tariffs fully pass through into consumer prices, they will cost the typical household $1,000 a year.
According to Kalshi, the Democrats have an 86% chance of winning control of the House but only a 50% chance of wresting control of the Senate.
Unfortunately, so much of what Democrats propose to address affordability comes down to raising taxes on more entitlements, repackaging liberal hobbyhorses and chasing boogeymen.
For example, Obama-Biden administration economist Jared Bernstein says restoring Biden-era food support and childcare subsidies would help.
Both would lower out-of-pocket costs for low-income families but create demand without solving underlying supply constraints.
In the end, those would raise prices for middle-class families, just as Mr. Trump’s tariffs do.
A favorite donkey-headed idea is price controls because Democrats see monopolists and exploitive pricing practices in the least likely places.
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is moving ahead with rent controls, and Mr. Bernstein advocates price caps for hospital and doctor fees. Medicare already does that for seniors, but many doctors won’t take Medicare patients who weren’t with them before turning 65.
A liberal friend recently told me that cattle are so few because ranching is overconsolidated and monopolized.
We have more than 700,000 beef growers.
Grocers are another bunch of conspirators. Within walking distance of my home, I have Harris Teeter, Safeway, Trader Joe’s and Balducci’s. Within a short drive, add Target, Lidl, Giant and Whole Foods.
It’s hard to find a monopolist in a world of so many choices.
Democrats talking about affordability reminds me of Etruscans explaining lightning. They would attribute it to the gods speaking, whereas the Romans looked for something more scientific.
Democrats had better hope that they don’t pull off an upset to control the Senate, because then, in 2028, they would have to explain why they didn’t solve the affordability crisis.
That would create a pathway for either Vice President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to run independently from President Trump, allowing the Republicans to hold on to the White House and win back the House.
• Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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