Women will decide the 2026 midterms

OPINION:

“The most important election of our lifetime” is an American political cliche. Yet as President Trump advances an ambitious second-term agenda with narrow Republican control of the Senate and House resting on a razor’s edge, the midterms in November could prove the maxim true.

The deciding factor, however, won’t be partisan base voters. It will be women.

In 2016, voters elected Mr. Trump to shake up Washington, but just two years later, Republicans lost the House. Overnight, much of his legislative agenda came to a screeching halt, and members triggered years of partisan investigations and gridlock.

The lesson for 2026: Midterm elections matter and can either hamstring or rejuvenate a presidency.

In his second term, much is at stake as Mr. Trump has moved aggressively on several fronts. The administration has tightened immigration enforcement, and the border is effectively sealed to unlawful activity.

The president has implemented a more assertive posture toward adversaries such as Venezuela and Iran, dealing multiple subtle blows to China’s influence and ending the menacing and murderous influence of the fanatical regime in Iran.

The U.S. economy is rebounding from the moribund Biden years as new tax policy (thank you, Working Families Tax Cut Act) and muscular trade negotiations have brought record investment and new job growth.

Trump 2.0 has rapidly begun reshaping the country’s trajectory for the better. Whether that momentum continues will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the midterms.

If Democrats, largely taken over by the radical left, regain control of Congress, then they will undoubtedly stall all of Mr. Trump’s legislative initiatives, slow or reject judicial nominees and subject the nation to more impeachment chaos.

Many Democrats have already promised sweeping investigations of administration officials and their family members. Democrats have proudly acknowledged that they will act to eliminate the filibuster in the Senate and to pack the Supreme Court.

These moves would drastically shift the balance of power in Washington.

That reality gives female voters the power to decide the 2026 midterms. Women make up a majority of the electorate and consistently turn out to vote at higher rates than men, so their votes are crucial to both parties. Recent elections have shown that women are among the most decisive, albeit least predictable, voting blocs in American politics.

Yet women are not a monolith, and treating them as one is a mistake both parties continue to make. Married and single women prioritize different issues. Suburban women may focus on the cost of living and the quality of education, while working mothers are often most concerned about economic stability, safety and the future their children will inherit.

Polling consistently shows that issues such as inflation, public safety, education and health rank among the top concerns for female voters. These are not abstract policy debates; they are kitchen-table issues that shape daily life, including the cost of groceries, the safety of women’s communities and what their children are being taught in school.

For Republicans, the path forward is clear. It is not enough to rely solely on Mr. Trump’s loyal base for success in November (though the base must turn out). Women don’t respond to the usual political sloganeering. They want practical solutions and tangible results.

Republican candidates must speak directly to female voters. The issues that matter most to them must be important to Republican candidates. The good news is that those issues are central to the Republican agenda.

Now we just need to make sure women across the country know and believe it.

It’s time for Republicans to get serious about persuading women voters on the issues. Crucial grassroots organizations such as ours are working to mobilize and activate American women to vote in November. We believe women see that Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans are building a stronger economy, restoring sanity to cultural debates, securing safe communities, shaping a stable world and prescribing a healthier future for American families.

If Republicans succeed in making that case, they will not only maintain control of Congress but will also reinforce the broader coalition that emerged in the historic 2024 elections.

If they fail, then the government will be divided, the administration’s agenda will stall, and the gridlock American voters detest will return to Washington.

The midterms in November may or may not be the most important of our lifetime, but one thing is certain: Female voters will decide what comes next.

• Martha Jenkins is president of the National Federation of Republican Women.