Nationwide redistricting brawl nears the end Tuesday in Virginia referendum

Virginia’s redistricting referendum next week marks the beginning of the end of a nationwide battle to use mid-decade redistricting to help gain control of the U.S. House.

The fight is drawing to a close in nearly a dozen states that have gerrymandered, or plan to gerrymander, new congressional district lines for partisan advantage ahead of the November election.

House Speaker Mike Johnson and former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin last weekend rallied Republican voters in deep-red Rockingham County, Virginia, ahead of an April 21 special election that would let Democrats redraw district lines and cut out nearly all of the state’s Republican representation in Congress.

“This monstrosity has been created to overwhelm and overcome the voice of the people,” Mr. Youngkin told the crowd, urging them to vote and bring their neighbors along to the polls.

Democrats say Texas Republicans triggered the multi-state redistricting brawl last year by redrawing their state’s legislative map to give the GOP five more House seats.

Republicans have gained a three-seat net advantage so far in redistricting that has taken place in California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Utah, according to Ballotpedia, which is tallying the redistricting fight.

Redistricting efforts in Georgia, New York and Louisiana remain subject to litigation and court decisions.

The showdown will likely conclude this month with the closely watched referendum in Virginia and legislative action in Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis plans to convince state lawmakers to redraw Florida’s congressional maps to create up to five additional Republican-leaning districts.

The Democrat-led Maryland General Assembly gaveled out this week unable to agree on new district maps that would have eliminated the state’s only remaining Republican district.

In Democrat-led Virginia, polls and early voting tallies show voters nearly evenly divided on whether to allow a mid-century redrawing of congressional district lines.

Early turnout in Virginia has so far been slightly lower than in the 2025 gubernatorial election that put Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the governor’s mansion. But more than 65,000 ballots were cast in person on Saturday, a huge surge that marked the highest daily turnout so far.

More than 111,000 ballots have been cast in early voting so far in Democrat-leaning Fairfax County, but Republican-leaning districts have produced higher early turnout overall, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, which is tracking the numbers.

In the five Republican congressional districts, 514,694 ballots have been cast as of Tuesday, compared to 468,617 ballots cast in Democratic districts.

Final in-person voting takes place in the April 21 special election.

Virginia’s General Assembly approved congressional lines aimed at countering Texas’s redrawn GOP-leaning districts.

The new map would make it likely that Virginia elects 10 Democrats and just one Republican to the U.S. House.

The map would wipe out four of the five Virginia congressional districts now held by Republicans, but it can be enacted only if voters approve a constitutional amendment in the special election.

The state’s mid-decade redistricting battle is an abrupt about-face from the recent creation of the bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission. In an overwhelming bipartisan vote in 2019, the General Assembly moved to amend the state Constitution to give the map-making job to a commission. Virginia voters approved the change in November 2020.

Previously, the legislature drew the new district maps and approved them through the normal legislative process.

The ballot question seeks to allow the General Assembly to temporarily redraw new congressional districts “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections.” The amendment would return Virginia to the standard redistricting process every decade after the 2030 census.

Strong opposition to President Trump and the GOP agenda is expected to drive voters to the polls in Democratic-leaning districts. Republicans have rallied voters in deep-red areas, warning the new lines would leave them without representation in Congress.

Democrats see a chance to erase the GOP’s two-vote margin in the House and reclaim the gavel, which would give them the power to put the brakes on the Trump agenda and open an array of investigations into his administration.

“We have one of the smallest margins in U.S. history,” Mr. Johnson told voters in Bridgewater, Virginia. “The eyes of America are on you. You have the power to say no to this.”

Mr. Johnson’s Democratic counterpart, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, stumped in Democrat-heavy Richmond last weekend, telling voters a “yes” vote on redistricting “will help us stop the MAGA power grab so we can end this national nightmare.”

Florida may have the final say in the GOP’s bid to get the upper hand in the redistricting fight.

Mr. DeSantis is expected to reconvene the state legislature this month to coerce lawmakers to redraw district lines in the GOP’s favor for the second time in four years.

On Tuesday, Mr. DeSantis said he may postpone the session, which was scheduled to take place April 20.

State lawmakers have yet to come up with a new congressional map. Currently, 20 seats are held by Republicans, and eight are held by Democrats.

Waiting to convene a special session until after Tuesday’s special election in Virginia would give Mr. DeSantis an idea of how many seats to redraw in favor of the GOP, but he denied that Virginia had anything to do with the delay.

Florida law prohibits partisan gerrymandering.

“I saw some reports that somehow Virginia’s doing something,” Mr. DeSantis said when asked if the session was delayed to wait for the Virginia results. “I have no idea where that came from.”