Threat Status Correspondent Jacob Wirtschafter has a new dispatch from Istanbul examining the immediate and longer-term fallout from the United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit OPEC — and where it leaves the U.S.

With the underlying structure of the OPEC seemingly unraveling amid the U.S.-Iran war and Tehran’s closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz, Washington will need to look outside the oil cartel and its member nations. That new reality was on display almost immediately this week when Chevron signed a shale exploration memorandum with Libya’s National Oil Corp. The signing of that memorandum signals the Trump administration is hedging against Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz by accelerating production partnerships outside the Gulf.

Mr. Wirtschafter unpacks the fascinating Gulf oil geopolitics at play with the UAE’s move. But for Washington, the implications extend well beyond the Gulf. Sustained high oil prices are likely to accelerate investment in alternative supply zones, including gas projects in East Africa that had previously stalled.

Military officials and defense industry insiders now acknowledge a reality: In some arenas, the U.S. can’t outbuild China in a strictly by-the-numbers contest. But that doesn’t mean the Pentagon is ceding any advantages whatsoever to its Communist adversary.

Adm. Caudle, the 34th U.S. chief of naval operations, explains in an exclusive video interview how the Navy is thinking differently about designing force packages — or sets of naval assets — and delivering them to theaters such as the Middle East. Rethinking the approach, Adm. Caudle said, is necessary because the U.S. is not in a position today to simply build its way out of the country’s strategic challenges.

“I can’t outbuild, certainly China. I can’t outbuild the rest of the Navy’s problems,” Adm. Caudle said. “You know, that’s just not a strategy that I think is even a viable one. We do want to regenerate our Navy and get shipbuilding back. But I knew I had to actually start basically tailoring the way I create force packages.”

In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth backed away from previous indications that the Pentagon wants $200 billion to fund the Iran war. 

Mr. Hegseth, during a March 19 Pentagon briefing, seemed to confirm that $200 billion figure.

But when asked Thursday about the supplemental funding request before Congress, Mr. Hegseth balked.

“We didn’t ask for $200 billion. I don’t know where you got that number, senator,” Mr. Hegseth said when asked about the figure by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Democrat. 

Pentagon officials told Congress this week the war has cost $25 billion so far, though outside estimates put the cost much, much higher. 

It’s an ominous term: “self-blasting.” And North Korean troops, thousands of whom fought alongside Russian forces against Ukraine, still practice that gruesome military tradition of committing suicide rather than being taken captive. 

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon is following this story, which came into the spotlight this week after North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un confirmed the ancient military tradition of “death before dishonor” remains an honored practice among his North Korean soldiers. Mr. Kim praised the soldiers who took their own lives while fighting against the Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in 2024.

As Mr. Salmon notes, self-blasting has been captured on camera by Ukrainian drones. In one instance, a wounded man pulls a grenade’s pin and places it inside his body armor. The ensuing detonation ensures the Ukrainians will not take a prisoner.

Does the U.S. truly understand Iran’s goals during negotiations between the two sides? Syndicated columnist Cal Thomas believes the answer is no and that failing to grasp what is really driving Tehran’s decision-making could put Washington on the losing end of any deal.

“I have seen little evidence indicating that the U.S. knows or understands the thinking of the Iranian regime. Quite the opposite,” Mr. Thomas writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. He cites “The Art of War” to urge the Trump administration to better understand its enemy, Iran.

Mr. Thomas argues Americans fail to understand that Iran believes Allah mandates it to establish a universal Shiite society and defeat infidels such as the Americans.

“This failure to understand the enemy can mean only that we will eventually be on the losing side of any and all ‘negotiations,’” Mr. Thomas writes.

• May 4 — What’s Next for Japanese Security Policy and U.S.-Japan Relations? Perspectives from the Diet, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• May 4 — How are Ukraine’s New Partnerships and Drone Innovations Changing the War? Atlantic Council

• May 4 — Economic Security and Mega Choke Points: Japan’s Strategic Reset, Brookings Institution 

• May 6 — A Conversation with Japan’s Former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Policy Outlook and Solutions, Hudson Institute  

• May 6 — U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation, Center for a New American Security 

• May 7-9 — The AI+ Expo, Special Competitive Studies Project