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Threat Status for Friday, April 10, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

The Iran ceasefire is on a knife edge.

… Vice President J.D. Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading the U.S. delegation in Islamabad this weekend to try to finalize a lasting peace deal with the Iranians.

… This Council on Foreign Relations chart explains how far apart Washington and Tehran are on nuclear enrichment, the Strait of Hormuz, proxies and other issues.

… The bipartisan policy group United Against Nuclear Iran assesses that Iran’s ghost fleet of oil tankers continues to load cargo and transit the strait toward its primary buyer: China.

… Commentary Editor Kelly Sadler writes that President Trump should walk away if Iran tries to play games on the nuclear issue.

… Ukrainian forces are now active in several Mideast nations, shooting down Iranian drones.

… Britain says it stopped Russian efforts to survey undersea cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic.

… A federal judge has ruled that the Pentagon is violating an order to restore journalists’ access to the building.

… And a reminder: The Threat Status editorial and video team will be in Colorado Springs next week for the 2026 Space Foundation Space Symposium.

Quid pro quo: Zelenskyy says Ukrainian forces active in Mideast in exchange for weapons

A Sting interceptor drone flies during drills at the Yatagan School for Unmanned Aerial Systems in the Kyiv region, Ukraine, on March 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian military personnel have shot down Iranian-designed Shahed drones in multiple Mideast nations during recent weeks. While he has not identified the countries being helped by Kyiv, Mr. Zelenskyy says the effort is part of a campaign to help partners counter the same weapons that Russian forces are using against Ukraine. 

The Associated Press reports that Mr. Zelenskyy made his first public acknowledgment of the Ukrainian military’s Mideast operations on Wednesday in remarks to reporters that were embargoed until Friday. He said Ukrainian forces took part in active operations abroad using domestically produced interceptor drones proven in countering Iranian-designed Shahed drones used by Russia in Ukraine.

In exchange, Ukraine is receiving weapons to protect its energy infrastructure, along with oil, diesel and, in some cases, financial arrangements, according to Mr. Zelenskyy, who said the agreements will bolster Ukraine’s energy stability. He also described the partnerships as something that would “be marketed” as Kyiv seeks to formalize and expand its defense export role.

As Iran ceasefire wobbles, Houthis hold next potential choke point

Houthi supporters shout slogans during a rally against Israel and the United States' war in Iran, in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

The Yemen-based Houthis — the Iran-backed proxies waging civil war against their own government while regularly lobbing missiles at Israel — are not party to any of the maneuverings underpinning the fragile ceasefire involving Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran. The temporary halt in fighting brokered by Pakistan named no Houthi obligations and set no conditions on Yemen. 

Special Correspondents Waseem Abu Mahadi and Jacob Wirtschafter write in a dispatch from the region that the Houthis have begun screening ships transiting the Red Sea by political identity, using the same selective-pressure formula that Iran applied to the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis are focused on Hodeidah, Yemen’s fourth-largest city and the country’s main port on the Red Sea.

At the same time, the Houthis have launched at least eight barrages at Israel since March 28. The last confirmed strike was a drone intercepted near Ramon Airport on April 7, the day of the ceasefire announcement. Senior Houthi political official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has said the strikes on Israel are only a first phase. The airport strikes are an irritant. What the Houthis can do from their Red Sea port at Hodeidah is much more consequential.

Podcast: Space as important new 'economic zone'

In this photo provided by the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, an unarmed Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operation test at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., on Feb. 23, 2021. (Brittany E. N. Murphy/U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command via AP, File)

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz joins the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast to discuss his recent reporting on political purges in the Chinese military and the status of the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile shield.

Then Cliff Beek, an entrepreneur and leader in the futuristic world of space infrastructure, joins the show for an eye-opening discussion on the fast-evolving intersection between space and business. Mr. Beek specifically homes in on the notion of space as a burgeoning and important new “economic zone.” 

“The capability to be in a position to … safely secure the lunar surface and areas of space is really important for our security and for the growth of life here on earth,” says Mr. Beek, the CEO of SC Solutions and co-founder of MPE Solutions. “It creates stronger disaster responses, it creates newer technologies, it creates industries and jobs on earth.”

Lessons for Tawain in Ukrainian and Iranian coastal defense tactics

Deck crew of Taiwanese navy stand by on a Taiwan's domestically made Tuo Chiang patrol ship during a simulated attack drill off Kaohsiung City, southern Taiwan, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying) ** FILE **

Iranian and Ukrainian coastal defenses have frustrated the U.S. and Russian navies in ways that offer timely lessons for Taiwan as it looks to fend off a potential attack by China.

Iranian vessels have shut down the Strait of Hormuz despite an assemblage of U.S. naval might, while Ukrainian forces in the Black Sea have embarrassed Russia’s navy by sinking its flagship. The lesson? Outgunned and overmatched nations exploiting the latest technologies can defend coastlines and thwart advances from larger, stronger navies.

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon examines the situation, noting how Communist-run China, with a fast-growing fleet that is ranked second globally behind only the U.S. Navy, has long claimed the smaller, democratic island of Taiwan as its province. The catch is that Taiwan benefits from a 110-mile-wide barrier between it and the mainland — the Taiwan Strait. That presents big problems for China and its clunky amphibious landing barges.

Opinion: Trump’s justification to blow Iran into the Stone Age

Bombing Iran back into the Stone Age illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Ms. Sadler writes in The Washington Times that “no other president has been able to hold talks with the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] with as much leverage as Mr. Trump has amassed through his military campaign.

“Still, disappointment is a possibility. Iran may be using the ceasefire as a way to buy time to rebuild and has no plans of opening the strait or giving up its nuclear program,” Ms. Sadler writes. “If that’s the case, then it should be bombs away until the strait is cleared and all of Iran’s enriched uranium is seized.

“Mr. Trump has repeatedly sworn to the American public that he wouldn’t be bullied by the rogue regime and that it would never be able to obtain a nuclear weapon,” she writes. “If he accepts anything less, then he will join the ranks of the feckless and fooled presidents that came before him, of which he has so sharply criticized.”

Threat Status Events Radar

April 13 — Adm. Daryl Caudle on the Strategic Vision for the U.S. Navy, Atlantic Council

April 13 — The Next Generation of Global Infrastructure Partnerships, Center for Strategic & International Studies

April 13-16 — 41st Space Symposium for Government, Military and Industry Leadership, Space Foundation

April 14 — Global Democracy under Pressure: Insights from Africa for a Changing World, Brookings Institution

April 15 — Invisible Attacks: What’s Behind Havana Syndrome & Anomalous Health Incidents, Hayden Center

April 21 — Profiting from Chaos? Russia’s Energy Windfall from a Fragmented Middle East, Chatham House

April 23 — The New India Conference: India’s Importance to American Interests, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.