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Threat Status for Monday, April 6, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump is slated to hold a 1 p.m. press conference today to talk about the daring raid that rescued an American fighter pilot deep behind enemy lines in Iran.

… Mr. Trump is likely to double down on his threats to strike Iran’s energy grid and civilian infrastructure, after venting on social media on Sunday: “Open the F——- Strait, you crazy bastards.”

… European Council President Antonio Costa said Monday that attacks on Iranian energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure would be “illegal,” comparing such strikes to Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

… Speaking of, Russia launched a drone attack against targets in Odesa, killing at least three people and leaving thousands without electricity in the Ukrainian city.

… Ukrainian long-range drones, meanwhile, targeted Russia’s key Black Sea port for oil exports.

… Israel says it carried out a powerful airstrike on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical plant. 

… South Korean spies say North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is grooming his daughter as his successor.

… And NASA’s Artemis II astronauts are racing to set a new distance record from Earth, as they prepare to pass behind the moon’s dark side this evening.

Are U.S. troops ready to face Iranian drone swarm attacks?

A fire and plumes of smoke rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility, according to authorities, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

U.S. ground troops may be ordered in the coming days to seize key Iranian energy infrastructure sites, such as Kharg Island or smaller islands in the Strait of Hormuz. American ground forces could also be ordered to remove Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium from locations across the country.

Many of the Pentagon’s most promising counter-drone technologies — from microwaves to lasers and other directed energy weapons — haven’t seen much real-world battlefield experience, raising the prospect of significant U.S. casualties from Iranian drone attacks.

Mark Montgomery, a retired Navy rear admiral and former policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on the latest episode of the Threat Status podcast that U.S. forces may not be fully ready to counter suicide drone attacks in large numbers on the battlefield.

Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s new ‘nuclear bomb’

Ships sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz as the sun sets in the United Arab Emirates Monday, March 23, 2026. (AP Photo, File)

The aim of Tehran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear bomb was always twofold: The mullahs wanted to threaten Israel while also warning the U.S. and the rest of the world that attacking Iran would carry a cost no adversary would be willing to bear.

The joint U.S.-Israeli war has diminished the threat to Israel, but Tehran’s unbroken chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz shows that the regime doesn’t need a nuclear weapon to inflict enormous pain on the world. The strait has quickly become the focal point of the war. Iranian military forces and proxies in the region are attacking tankers and harassing shipping via a toll system.

On Sunday, Mr. Trump fired off a profane social media post capturing his frustration with military efforts to force Iran to reopen the waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes annually: “Open the F——- Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

China-Philippines thaw could undercut U.S. defense of Taiwan

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping and visiting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appear together during a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Jan. 4, 2023. (Shen Hong/Xinhua via AP, File)

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is generating a surprise side effect in the Indo-Pacific: expressions of friendship by U.S. ally the Philippines toward China. The growing global energy crisis triggered by the war recently saw Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. say he’s considering joint energy prospecting with China in the South China Sea despite longstanding territorial disputes there.

A thaw in Beijing-Manila relations could result in major blowback for the U.S., according to Asia Editor Andrew Salmon, who examines the situation in a dispatch from the region, reporting that any weakening of Filipino support for Washington would undercut U.S. military planning for a defense of Taiwan against a potential attack by China.

The Philippines is key to such U.S. planning. Recent years have seen Manila expand the number of bases accessible to U.S. troops in the area, including on islands critical to blocking a potential Chinese naval push to surround or blockade Taiwan.

Seoul spy agency says North Korean leader likely grooming daughter as heir

In this photo provided by the North Korean government, its leader Kim Jong-un attends a parade with his daughter in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 25, 2026, as the North wrapped up the Workers' Party congress. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

The head of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service says it’s fair to assess that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is grooming his teenage daughter as the likely heir to the regime he inherited from his father and grandfather. According to reports, the 13-year-old girl is named Kim Ju-ae.

NIS Director Lee Jong-seok made the assertion during a closed-door briefing with South Korean lawmakers in Seoul on Monday, according to The Associated Press. He also reportedly downplayed the notion that Mr. Kim’s sister Kim Yo-jong, who has long been regarded as the regime’s No. 2, would stand in the way of her niece’s eventual rise to power in Pyongyang.

Kim Ju-ae, who has been dubbed by North Korean state media as Mr. Kim’s “most beloved” or “respected” child, has accompanied her father to numerous high-profile events since late 2022. But personal details, including her name and age, have never been formally released by the Kim regime. Interestingly, her reported name is based on an account by former NBA star Dennis Rodman, who recalled holding Mr. Kim’s baby daughter during a visit to Pyongyang in 2013.

Pentagon upends relationship with other Washington institutions

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reflected in a window, gestures during a press briefing at the Pentagon, Monday, March 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

The Pentagon’s relationship with the rest of Washington has, to put it mildly, become complicated. With severe restrictions on media access and limits on how military officials can communicate with Congress, the Defense Department under Secretary Pete Hegseth has upended the Pentagon’s traditional interactions with other established institutions in the nation’s capital.

Think tanks, top-level academic institutions and even some leading defense contractors have been caught up in the Trump administration’s overhaul of who should have access to the Pentagon grounds, how the military conducts business, how it educates its officers and how its officials interact with civil society.

National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang offers a deep dive on the situation, writing that the extent to which the current changes outlast the Trump administration could hinge largely on the outcome of the 2028 presidential election. Analysts generally agree a Democratic administration, or one led by a more moderate Republican president and defense secretary, could reverse many of the most restrictive policies implemented over the past 15 months.

Threat Status Events Radar

• April 7 — U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the Future of Trade Policy, Hudson Institute

• April 7 — U.S.-Turkish Defense Relations and the Upcoming NATO Summit, Atlantic Council

• April 7 — A Conversation with Portuguese Ambassador Duarte Lopes: Europe, North Africa and the Mediterranean, Stimson Center

• April 9 — Same Engine, New Fuel? China’s Economic Model and the Artificial Intelligence Bet, Chatham House

• April 14 — Global Democracy under Pressure: Insights from Africa for a Changing World, Brookings Institution

• April 15 — Invisible Attacks: What’s Behind Havana Syndrome & Anomalous Health Incidents, Hayden Center

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.