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Threat Status for Friday, March 27, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Russia is reported to be sending drones and other equipment to Iran.

… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia this week was reportedly focused on inking a deal to supply counter-drone assets to the kingdom.

… The Islamic State’s targeting of a Chinese mine in Congo proves the group is a resilient threat, according to the Long War Journal published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

… France 24 English has a video report on how Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency recruits spies inside Iran.

… Israeli officials accused Hezbollah of violating a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with the recent discovery of a tunnel system beneath a Christian church in southern Lebanon.

… President Trump now says April 6 is his new deadline for Iran to agree to a deal to permanently end its nuclear ambitions or face continued military bombardment.

… The Washington Times has an exclusive deep dive from Cairo on efforts by Egypt, Pakistan and Oman to mediate an end to the war.

… Israel says it killed the head of Iran’s navy and that strikes on Tehran “will escalate and expand” going forward.

… Iran’s foreign minister is accusing the U.S. of intentionally targeting the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school.

… And the U.S. Senate has approved a partial Homeland Security funding bill, with no money for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or the U.S. Border Patrol.

Assessing the damage: U.S. faces hurdles in determining whether bombed Iranian sites truly destroyed

First responders inspect the remains of a residential building hit in an overnight strike during the U.S.-Israeli military campaign in Tabriz, Iran, March 24, 2026. (AP Photo/Matin Hashemi, File)

The U.S. faces hurdles in conducting “battle damage assessments” of its strikes against key targets in Iran, raising questions about whether the Islamic republic’s military infrastructure has been destroyed permanently or whether Tehran retains the capacity to rebuild it after the current conflict ends.

U.S. and Israeli strikes over the past four weeks have undoubtedly devastated Iran’s navy, its ballistic missile capabilities, its drone production facilities and other assets, but specialists note key distinctions between saying a particular site has been “destroyed” or merely “damaged.” Determining which definition applies in each case is difficult.

That distinction came to the forefront after Operation Midnight Hammer in June, the U.S. mission that hit three key Iranian nuclear sites. Mr. Trump repeatedly said Iran’s nuclear program had been fully “obliterated” by those strikes. The administration has made clear in recent days that removing stockpiles of enriched uranium from Iran should be part of any peace deal between the two sides, reflecting a tacit acknowledgment that key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program are still in play.

What happened to Britain’s Royal Navy? Mideast conflict exposes London’s inability to deploy ships

Royal Navy Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon at the HM Naval Base, in Portsmouth Harbour, in Hampshire, England, Tuesday March 3, 2026, ahead of being deployed to protect British military personnel in Cyprus. (Andrew Matthews/PA via AP)

On the fringes of the Iran war, a lone British destroyer arrived off the coast of Cyprus this week to help defend the drone-struck, strategic island in the eastern Mediterranean. The belated arrival of HMS Dragon, which will join a European task group, is unlikely to reassure a British public appalled that their famed Royal Navy no longer rules the waves.

The lack of naval capability holds worrisome ramifications for Britain’s potential role in a multinational naval coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically vital Gulf waterway that Iran has effectively blockaded since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic republic nearly a month ago.

Britain’s inability or unwillingness to directly assist that mission could add to the derision that Mr. Trump sometimes shows toward his British counterpart, Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The decline of the British Royal Navy, analysts say, has its roots in the post-Cold War peace dividend, when London cut back on its military spending.

DNI threat report faulted for playing down danger of China invading Taiwan

In this photo provided by China's Xinhua News Agency, drones and other armament formations pass during the military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (Liu Xu/Xinhua via AP) **FILE**

The annual report on global threats released this month by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) includes faulty assessments asserting the Chinese military does not plan an assault on Taiwan by 2027, according to China experts. The report states China this year “probably” will move ahead with setting the conditions for annexing Taiwan “short of conflict.”

The section of the report called “China-Taiwan” was drafted by David Shullman, the national intelligence officer for China on the DNI National Intelligence Council, former officials said. Mr. Shullman, a former CIA analyst, is a holdover from the Biden administration. Federal Election Commission records show that in September 2024, while he was a scholar at the Atlantic Council, Mr. Schullman donated $500 to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz digs into the situation, writing that allowing Mr. Shullman to continue on at the National Intelligence Council as the seniormost intelligence analyst for China is raising questions about the judgment of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in overseeing the intelligence community and appointing those who minimize threats.

Opinion: How the World Cup will test America’s drone defense

World Cup and drones illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

This summer, 16 North American cities will host millions of World Cup attendees. “It’s imperative that the U.S. has the right systems in place to safeguard the public,” writes former acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad F. Wolf. “Although counter-drone technology exists, the key issue is whether policymakers will act quickly enough to have them in place.

“As we have seen in recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, low-cost, commercially available drones (especially drone swarms) are now capable of precise navigation, autonomous flight and long-range payload delivery,” Mr. Wolf writes in an op-ed for The Times. 

“They are inexpensive, accessible and proliferating at a pace that outstrips our domestic defenses,” he writes, “Because of this, they dramatically increase the risk to soft targets such as an 80,000-seat stadium, an energy grid or a city’s water supply.”

Opinion: Beyond the war in Ukraine: Realism's path to peace

Rescue workers try to put out a fire caused by the fragments of a Russian drone that hit a private house during air attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

Peace has “never been easy or automatic,” writes former European Commissioner Jan Figel. “It requires responsibility, shared interests and perseverance from political leaders and societies alike. The war in Ukraine is a tragedy that has already cost countless lives and immense suffering.

“Yet history shows that even the most bitter conflicts can eventually give way to reconciliation and cooperation,” Mr. Figel writes in an op-ed for The Times. “Innovation in politics does not always mean inventing something entirely new. Sometimes it means rediscovering successful ideas from the past and adapting them to new circumstances.

“Europe’s postwar experience demonstrates that former adversaries can become partners,” he writes. “If that lesson is remembered today, then the search for peace in Ukraine may yet open the door to a renewed architecture of stability and cooperation across the entire continent.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• March 27 — How Ukraine’s Drones and Russia’s Reconnaissance Fit Into the Iran War, Atlantic Council

• March 30 — China’s Economic Slowdown: Risks, Realities and Strategic Implications, Hudson Institute

• March 30 — New Eyes on North Korea: Emerging Scholar Perspectives, Stimson Center

• March 31 — U.S. Navy Fighting Instructions with the Chief of Naval Operations, Center for Strategic & International Studies 

• April 1 — Regional Shockwaves: Long-Term Implications of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• April 1 — How is the U.S.-Israel War on Iran Impacting Energy and the Global Economy? Chatham House

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.