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Threat Status for Friday, March 6, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Operation Epic Fury has cost $3.7 billion so far, a new estimate says. It’s one of the first detailed price tags for the military campaign against Iran, which President Trump has said could last a month or longer.

… The most eye-popping figure is $3.1 billion spent on munitions, according to the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The White House will pressure top defense companies at a meeting today to speed up production of those munitions, including missile system components.

… The Trump administration says Iran can barely defend itself amid crushing airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel.

… Mr. Trump told NBC News he has names in mind for future leadership posts in Iran and the U.S. will ensure they aren’t killed.

… That seems to confirm what sources told Threat Status earlier this week: The administration wants certain key political leaders in Iran to survive the conflict and then govern Iran the way the administration desires.

… The U.S. and Venezuela reestablished diplomatic ties two months after the U.S. captured the country’s then-President Nicolas Maduro.

… Mr. Trump predicts that Cuba’s communist regime won’t last much longer

… The president fired embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. He named Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma as her replacement. 

… Islamic militants attacked the town of Ngoshe in northeastern Nigeria on Friday, abducting more than 300 people, local officials said. 

… And shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended key routes due to the Middle East conflict.

Claude AI being used in Iran operation, despite Pentagon-Anthropic feud

President Donald Trump walks past Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as he exist the East Room of the White House following the Medal of Honor ceremony, Monday, March 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Defense officials tell Threat Status that Anthropic’s Claude AI tool is being used in the U.S. war against Iran, despite the Pentagon formally labeling the San Francisco-based company a “supply chain risk” to national security.

Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward is tracking the latest developments in the Anthropic-Pentagon saga. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei confirmed that the Defense Department informed his company it is now considered a supply chain risk. That means no other companies can do business with Anthropic if they want government contracts.

Still, Mr. Amodei said his company is back in negotiations with the Pentagon and is looking for a path forward. Rival artificial intelligence firm OpenAI, meanwhile, says it has its own deal with the military — one that addresses the mass surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns that led to the Anthropic-Pentagon feud in the first place.

All of this comes as defense officials tell Mr. Seward that Anthropic’s AI models are playing a key role in U.S. military operations in Iran.

As Iran war escalates, West Asia faces major stress test

A man carries an Iranian flag to place on the rubble of a police facility struck during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Key energy corridors are under fire. Aviation networks are stretched. And political alliances are facing new tests.

The fallout from the U.S.-Iran war has spread across West Asia, where days of Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf cities have turned what Washington described as a limited decapitation campaign into a widening stress test for the region.

Washington Times Correspondent Jacob Wirtschafter is following the aftershocks, from the Strait of Hormuz to India’s financial markets and Pakistan’s streets. Here’s just one example: India’s civil aviation ministry said carriers canceled more than 850 Gulf-bound flights across two days after Dubai International Airport and Hamad International Airport suspended operations. The India–United Arab Emirates corridor ranks as the fifth busiest in global aviation.

Russia cracks down on social media as it readies possible military draft

Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Head of the Federal Treasury Roman Artyukhin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon order another military call-up to replenish Russia’s manpower losses in Ukraine. Ahead of that possible draft, the Kremlin has begun quietly tightening its control over phones, internet access and social media across the country — all in the hopes of quashing domestic dissent.

Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak in Ukraine has a new dispatch from Kyiv that dives into Moscow’s preparations for a possible military mobilization. Mr. Putin this week signed a decree expanding the size of Russia’s armed forces to nearly 2.4 million personnel, including roughly 1.5 million active-duty troops.

Publicly, Moscow has repeatedly denied plans for another mass call-up, wary of the backlash triggered by its partial mobilization in September 2022. But behind the scenes, clear signs show Moscow is taking steps to put down another backlash before it starts.

Among other actions, the Kremlin has moved aggressively to tighten its grip on social media, particularly Telegram.

Opinion: It's time for Europe to invest more in Ukraine

The European Union protecting Ukraine from Russia illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

It is long past time for European nations to take the lead and invest more in helping Ukraine win its war against Russia.

Threat Status contributor Daniel N. Hoffman writes in a Times column that while Europe has already contributed hundreds of billions of dollars in financial, military, humanitarian and refugee assistance, more work remains.

“First, Europe needs to treat Ukraine as an ally, with deeper commercial and military ties, including cutting-edge GPS and drone technology,” Mr. Hoffman writes. “Europe also should double down on purchasing from the U.S. arsenal of democracy the air defense and long-range artillery to stop Mr. Putin’s army in its tracks.”

Mr. Hoffman, a retired CIA Clandestine Services officer, offers several other specific steps he believes Europe can and must take to help Ukraine.

Opinion: Two traps facing Trump on Iran

President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office at the White House, Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)

Mr. Trump faces two potential traps as the U.S.-Iran war unfolds, according to Times columnist Tom Basile.

The first, he writes, is that the administration allows itself to be pulled into a technical — and unwinnable — argument over how much enriched uranium the Iranians possessed or how close they were to having a nuclear bomb. 

“The better option is to stay focused on the regime’s record as the largest state sponsor of terrorism, its killing of American forces, human rights violations, relentless pursuit of the destruction of Israel and clear cooperation with China and Russia against U.S. interests,” Mr. Basile writes. 

The second possible trap for Mr. Trump is allowing his bold domestic agenda to be sidelined while Iran sucks up all the oxygen in American public discourse.

“Americans are still keenly aware that their own personal economies and ability to achieve their goals cannot be left to languish at the expense of military or foreign policy agendas,” Mr. Basile says.

Threat Status Events Radar

• March 10 — European Strategic Readiness in Turbulent Times, Royal United Services Institute 

• March 11 —  The Remaking of International Security: Arms Transfer Trends in a Changing Global Order, Stimson Center

• March 11 —  Taiwanese Views of the United States and China: Evidence from the 2026 American Portrait Survey, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• March 11 —  Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III, Hudson Institute 

• March 17 —  Boosting U.S. Quantum Supply Chains for Enduring Advantage, Center for a New American Security 

• March 19 —  Ukraine on the Mental Map of Europe, Brookings Institution 

• March 19 —  Poland, Northeastern Europe and the Future of the Transatlantic Partnership, American Enterprise Institute

• March 24-26 — Global Force Symposium & Exposition, Association of the U.S. Army 

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.