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Threat Status for Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

The U.S. closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after Iranian drone attacks at both sites. The American consulate in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, warned of “imminent” assaults. 

… The State Department ordered nonessential workers to evacuate six Middle East nations. Tens of thousands of people are stranded. The U.S. Embassy in Israel says it cannot “directly assist” Americans who want to leave.

… U.S. Central Command says it destroyed a key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command-and-control facility.

… President Trump laid out four key U.S. objectives in the conflict: Destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, end its support for extremist proxy groups and permanently cripple its nuclear program.

… Despite all of that, the administration insists this is not a “regime-change war.”

… Mr. Trump is keeping up a whirlwind pace of media interviews to sell the war to the American public.

… The escalating conflict is shaking global energy markets and could lead to a spike in U.S. gasoline prices.

… France is increasing its nuclear arsenal and for the first time will allow the temporary deployment of nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries.

… And insurgents raided a village in a remote area of South Sudan, killing at least 169 people. Ninety of the victims were civilians, including women and children.

The case for attacking Iran

A woman holds a photo of President Trump during a demonstration in support of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Sunday, March 1, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jill Connelly)

There’s good reason why Iran is labeled the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror. The grim clerics who have ruled the country have greenlit wave after wave of bombings, assassinations and political kidnappings for half a century.

Military Correspondent Mike Glenn has a detailed look at Iran’s long history of supporting terrorism, which Mr. Trump cites as a key justification for America’s Operation Epic Fury. From the 1983 attack in Beirut that killed 241 U.S. service members to its bankrolling of Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iran has fomented violence, death and chaos for five decades. That’s why Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, dubbed Iran the mothership of terrorism.

And don’t forget that Iran-linked actors have long tried to kill Mr. Trump and other key U.S. political figures.

Does Venezuela offer a blueprint for Iran's future?

An Iranian flag is placed among the ruins of a police station struck Monday during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Notably absent from Mr. Trump’s stated goals in the Iran conflict is a plan to tear down the country’s government and build an entirely new one.

In fact, the Trump administration says it is not engaged in a regime-change operation, even as Mr. Trump would not rule out American boots on the ground inside the country.

The U.S.-Israeli operation has already killed the Islamic republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but other key religious and political figures in Iran are still alive. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with former Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, and Ali Larjiani, the secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, are still standing.

Sources tell Threat Status that there might be a reason for that. They say the administration may have identified individuals who could potentially take charge of a defanged and humbled Iran once the fighting ends.

As a blueprint, the administration could look to Venezuela, where U.S. forces removed President Nicolas Maduro from power in Caracas but left his government intact.

Iran war shakes global energy markets

In this file photo, storage tanks are seen at the North Jeddah bulk plant, an Aramco oil facility, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil, File)

The military campaign against Iran is only a few days old, but it has already significantly impacted global energy markets. And the worst could be yet to come.

Foreign Affairs Correspondent Vaughn Cockayne offers a deep dive into this aspect of the Iran story, including how Iranian missiles and drones targeted key energy sites in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two of the world’s largest energy exporters, along with oil tankers traveling in the Strait of Hormuz. State-owned QatarEnergy announced Monday that it would pause its liquefied natural gas production after Iranian drones struck facilities within the vast Ras Laffan industrial complex.

The conflict with Iran has also reignited tensions over the Red Sea, as Houthi rebels — key Iranian proxies in Yemen — vow to retaliate against vessels off their coast.

Oil ticked 7.6% higher on Monday, rising from $65 a barrel on Friday to just over $72. Politically speaking, this could be very bad news for Mr. Trump, who may preside over a significant jump in consumer gas prices.

Opinion: Trump's war on Iran will reduce Middle East violence over long term

Trump and Iran illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

There’s a political debate unfolding about whether Mr. Trump, by ordering major attacks against Iran, has violated his pledge to voters to keep the U.S. out of new wars. But over the long term, could the U.S. operation actually lead to less violence and death?

Cal Thomas a syndicated columnist, lays out a case for why Mr. Trump could ultimately be viewed as the leader who finally dealt with the root cause of terrorism in the Middle East.

If you want to look at it this way, President Trump is keeping his promise to end wars by taking out the Iranian regime, which has made war on us and underwritten terrorism throughout the Middle East and the world since its 1979 revolution,” Mr. Thomas writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times.

There is a chance, Mr. Thomas says, that the conflict eventually leads to the turnover of Iran’s government to leaders who will no longer promote terrorism, the restoration of women’s rights and the repair of relations with the U.S. All of those things would lead to a more stable Mideast — and boost Mr. Trump’s case as a peace president.

Opinion: Israel, Ukraine, the Iranian people fight for the West's soul

Freedom in Iran illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Ukraine’s fight against the invading Russian army. Israel’s fight against extremist forces who don’t believe the Jewish state should exist. And the Iranian people battling a regime that has proven its willingness to slaughter its own citizens by the thousands.

Each of those struggles is not confined to a single geographic region. Instead, they represent a broader fight for the very soul of the West and its values, according to former Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie. In a new op-ed for The Times, Mr. Wilkie says that too many in Europe and on America’s political right “refuse to understand what Russian ruler Vladimir Putin and Iran’s dark-age theocrats are fighting for.

“The Kremlin and the mullahs are the fount for every totalitarian, Islamofascist, sadist and neo-Nazi dream on the planet,” Mr. Wilkie writes. “Each of those malevolent forces wants America (and the rest of the West) dead.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• March 3 — War in Iran: What Happens Next? Brookings Institution 

• March 4 — Surveying Foreign Influence in Artificial Intelligence Tools, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• March 4 — Securing America’s Critical Mineral Supply Chain: A Conversation with Rep. Rob Wittman, Virginia Republican, Hudson Institute

• March 5 — U.S.–Israel Strikes on Iran: What Next for the Middle East? Chatham House

• March 5 — Navigating a New Era in Syria: Strategic Opportunities for the U.S. and Turkey, Atlantic Council

• March 10 — European Strategic Readiness in Turbulent Times, Royal United Services Institute

• March 11 —  The Re-Making of International Security: Arms Transfer Trends in a Changing Global Order, Stimson Center

• March 24-26 — Global Force Symposium & Exposition, Association of the U.S. Army

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.