NATSEC-TECH THURSDAY — February 5, 2026: Every Thursday’s edition of Threat Status highlights the intersection between national security and advanced technology, from artificial intelligence to cyber threats and the battle for global data dominance.
Share the daily Threat Status newsletter and the weekly NatSec-Tech Wrap with friends who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor and Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward.
… Thursday’s expiration of New START — the last nuclear arms agreement between Washington and Moscow — could accelerate the 21st century arms race.
… Ukraine says Russian troops have lost access to the Starlink internet terminals, as Kyiv and SpaceX coordinate to disrupt Moscow’s frontline operations.
… The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s new contract with defense intelligence firm Vantor involves space-based sensors.
… The Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Initiative consists mainly of new defense industry entrants.
… House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast says he “would not sell” a fighter jet or an Abrams tank to China, so “we need to be thinking very seriously before we consider selling them any of our most advanced chips.”
… Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. says it will begin manufacturing some of the world’s most cutting-edge semiconductors in Japan.
… North Korean troops have returned to combat in the Ukraine war, firing tube and rocket artillery into Ukraine across the Russian border, Kyiv’s intelligence has revealed.
… And experts have their doubts about tech billionaire Elon Musk’s vow to put data centers in space and run them on solar power.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty known as “New START,” which was enacted in 2010, expires today, ending measures that have provided transparency into the U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons arsenals for more than a decade. The development comes amid rising U.S.-Russia tensions and against the backdrop of a Chinese nuclear arsenal that is growing rapidly.
It’s unclear whether the treaty’s expiration will help or hurt U.S. security. Mr. Seward examines the situation, with some analysts saying the expiration could offer overdue relief from outdated constraints, while others warn that an unchecked nuclear arms race could erupt, especially given recent rhetoric from top Russian officials about their willingness to use nuclear weapons if they deem it necessary.
The Trump administration is pushing for China to become involved in any discussions about future nuclear arms treaties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that any talks to impose limits on nuclear weapons should include the communist power, noting China’s “vast and rapidly growing stockpile.” A Pentagon report released in December said China aims to have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Defense intelligence firm Vantor has captured a $5.3 million contract from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to leverage AI for detecting real-time changes from the company’s own imaging satellites and space-based sensors.
“Under the contract, Vantor will use AI-powered analytics and integrate data from multiple space-based sensors — including its own imaging satellites and third-party electro-optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites — to identify changes to the Earth’s physical terrain,” said the Colorado-based company, which has offices in Europe, Asia and around the United States.
Vantor, formerly Maxar Intelligence, told Threat Status in December that the company was pushing forward with more AI-powered systems. “That’s the big transition that we’ve been doing with Maxar to Vantor,” CEO Dan Smoot said during that interview. “We’re taking this foundational data — it’s both 2D and 3D digital twin — of the entire world, but as you drive more advanced analytics, it requires additional sensor data that you have to fuse together.”
Four years of conflict in Ukraine have upended the nature of warfare — not just on the battlefields of Eastern Europe, but also around the world. Ukrainian drone pilots proved early in the war that Russia’s massive, armored assault vehicles and single-file columns of tanks and armored personnel carriers were sitting ducks.
Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak in Ukraine offers an on-the-ground exclusive, going inside a top Ukrainian drone unit, the 423rd Unmanned Systems Battalion, and its current operations against Russian forces, which now move in small squads on foot or on motorcycles to either bypass or assault Ukrainian defenses.
Formed in 2024 as part of Kyiv’s rapid expansion of drone warfare, the 423rd carries out three main types of missions: Deliveries to resupply frontline positions with food, ammunition and equipment; area denial that drops explosive charges to mine key approaches or positions; and direct strike operations using different types of munitions tailored to the target.
The U.S. could learn a lot from its Nordic allies about projecting military power in the Arctic, where the icy cold wreaks havoc on high-tech equipment and weaponry and extreme conditions can limit or render useless some key tools in the American arsenal, including drones.
“Technical equipment simply freezes,” says Minna Alander, a military analyst and fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis and the Stockholm Free World Forum. In a recent briefing on the military buildup in the north, Ms. Alander said extreme cold poses unique challenges. Even uncrewed systems are stressed to the breaking point. “Battery life is way shorter,” she said. “Engines can freeze if you don’t have specific equipment to stop that from happening. Fuel can even freeze.”
Extended periods of darkness further increase power demand, a reality that raises critical questions “that developers need to answer and address when it comes to using and developing Arctic-capable drones,” said Federico Borsari, also a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Battery capacity dropped from 100% to as low as 20% in a matter of a few minutes, given the very harsh, very cold temperatures. And this was a training exercise in Germany, for instance, not even in the Arctic.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this week that China is “weaponizing” its control over rare earth minerals critical to the manufacture of advanced semiconductors and that the Trump administration is taking steps to counter the problem. The Chinese Communist Party announced in October an expansion of restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals and permanent magnets needed for key civilian and military industrial products.
Mr. Lutnick said in a speech Tuesday that the Trump administration will use its economic power — pricing, tariffs and industrial policy actions — to bolster the security of critical minerals supply chains and keep them in U.S. and allied control. “Critical minerals is just the name that everybody understands that’s been weaponized,” he said. “We’ve made it clear to everybody that we’re going to be there across critical minerals and across all the other choke points that we are studying and we are seeking to address.”
Mr. Lutnick emphasized the intersection between rare earths and semiconductors. America, which in the past produced zero high-end chips, is currently producing 2 million high-end Nvidia Blackwell chips used in AI, he said, adding that key chemical ingredients for the chips are needed. “If you want to make semiconductors but you don’t have gallium or yttrium,” the commerce secretary said, “then you need to solve for the full bill of materials so that you’re not subject to the whims of others.”
• Feb. 10 — Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Cadenazzi on Rebooting America’s Defense Industrial Base, Hudson Institute
• Feb. 11 — ‘The Doom Loop’ and the Future of the Global Order, Brookings Institution
• Feb. 11 — Escaping the Cycle of Conflict in Libya, Stimson Center
Thanks for reading NatSec-Tech Thursdays from Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts.
If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor or Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward are here to answer them.
