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Threat Status for Friday, January 30, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino says he’s “shocked that somebody hasn’t flown a drone over a stadium that’s full of people, whether it’s a concert or football game, whatever, and done something that would [result in] a mass casualty event.”

… In an exclusive interview on the latest Threat Status podcast, the New York Republican also weighs in on whether Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s aggressive tactics in Minneapolis and other cities have crossed a line.

… President Trump said Thursday night that he’s made it clear to Iranian leaders that if they want to avoid U.S. military action, they have to “stop killing protesters” and agree to “no nuclear.”

… In the latest move in Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign on Tehran, the State Department sanctioned seven Iranians over the regime’s crackdown on protesters.

… The European Union says Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a terror group similar to the Islamic State or al Qaeda.

… Administration officials quietly hosted Israeli and Saudi officials in Washington this week for talks on possible U.S. strikes.

… SpaceX’s Starlink is working with Ukraine’s defense ministry to counteract Russian drones.

… The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces are also relying on Starlink by equipping first-person-view drones with terminals tied to the system.

… Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch and ranking Democrat Jeanne Shaheen say they’re taking “action to crack down on illicit shadow fleet ships that [Russian President] Vladimir Putin uses to fund his brutal war against Ukraine.”

… Mr. Trump has turned the United States’ critical-minerals policy into a three-pronged, state-capitalist strategy, according to a new analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

… And the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction watchdog agency is officially shutting its doors.

… Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter incorrectly identified House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino.

Inside the price tag on Trump’s use of the military in U.S. cities

Members of the National Guard patrol in front of the Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The Trump administration spent $496 million deploying military personnel to U.S. cities in 2025 to smother crime and protect federal buildings, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Starting in June, the Pentagon deployed Marines and National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles; Washington; Memphis, Tennessee; Portland, Oregon; Chicago and New Orleans.

A CBO report circulated this week said “the administration has also kept 200 National Guard personnel mobilized in Texas after they left Chicago.” National Guard troops are compensated at the same rate as active-duty personnel when they’re called to federal service. That includes base pay, housing allowance, retirement pay and health care. It costs about $95,000 per soldier annually when the part-time troops come onto active duty, according to the report.

It outlined how the monthly costs of deploying National Guard troops to U.S. cities vary from city to city. The numbers range from $28 million a month for 1,500 personnel in Memphis to $55 million a month for 2,950 military personnel in Washington.

Trump says Putin promised not to hit Kyiv

FILE- People look at the damage following a rocket attack the city of Kyiv, Ukraine, Feb. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

Mr. Trump said he “personally asked” Mr. Putin “not to fire into Kyiv” and other Ukrainian cities and towns and Mr. Putin “agreed.” While the comments may set the stage for a breakthrough in end-of-war talks, they could backfire if Russia continues with its nightly drone and missile attacks.

The president’s comments Thursday followed an uptick in the administration’s diplomatic push that has unfolded even as Russian strikes have continued. Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. held trilateral talks last weekend in Abu Dhabi, the first of their kind since Russia invaded in February 2022. The discussions focused on territorial disputes and security guarantees rather than an immediate ceasefire.

Despite the appearance of progress in the talks, it remains to be seen if Russia will halt its attacks on civilian electricity and energy infrastructure in Ukraine — strikes occurring in the midst of a freezing winter, with temperatures reaching below zero. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday there is no ceasefire agreement with Russia, but Kyiv is ready to observe a reciprocal halt on energy strikes if Moscow stops attacking first.

Podcast exclusive: Have ICE's aggressive tactics crossed the line?

Federal immigration officers deploy pepper spray at observers after a shooting Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Mr. Garbarino tells the Threat Status weekly podcast in an exclusive interview that there have “definitely been instances where things have not gone the right way, and I think some of the tactics in certain cases might have been a little too strong. 

“But that’s me watching a video of something being replayed. I’m not on the ground. I’m never going to second-guess a law enforcement officer and the decisions they have to make in seconds,” Mr. Garbarino says on the podcast released Friday morning.

The congressman discusses a range of other matters as well, including Havana Syndrome, Mr. Trump’s Greenland push and the extent to which state and local law enforcement should have access to advanced counter-drone technology to protect against the prospect of a drone attack on a major sporting event or other large public gathering.

“I’m shocked,” Mr. Garbarino says, “that somebody hasn’t flown a drone over a stadium that’s full of people, whether it’s a concert or football game, whatever, and done something that would [result in] a mass casualty event.”

Drone incursions over stadiums have indeed happened. In June, a Baltimore man was sentenced for illegally flying a drone over M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore during a 2025 playoff game between the Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game had to be temporarily suspended.

Opinion: Extending New START treaty not in national interest

In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 2, 2024, Russian troops load an Iskander missile onto a mobile launcher during drills at an undisclosed location in Russia. Hawks in Russia have called for revising the country's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and President Vladimir Putin said the doctrine could be modified. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

New START, which is set to expire on Thursday, does “not address the fundamental nuclear challenges facing the U.S. or its allies in Europe or the Indo-Pacific,” writes Robert Peters, who notes that “China is the fastest-growing nuclear power on the planet,” as it is building “100 new warheads a year and now has more ICBM silos than the U.S. has active Minuteman III silos.

“Russia fields 2,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons that are not part of the New START warhead limits,” Mr. Peters, a fellow for strategic deterrence at The Heritage Foundation, writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. “In short, the size of the combined Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals today is more than double the size of the U.S. operationally deployed nuclear arsenal.

“New START does nothing to address these problems. Allowing New START to expire, however, gives the U.S. some options to address some of these challenges,” he writes. “If the U.S. uploaded its ICBM force with additional nuclear warheads, it would allow us to hold at risk both Chinese and Russian strategic nuclear targets, without having to deploy additional missiles, bombers or submarines.”

Opinion: Trump is right on Greenland

President Donald Trump speaks before he signs a presidential memorandum imposing tariffs and investment restrictions on China in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, March 22, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Mr. Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland “reflects a strategic foresight essential for America’s future security,” according to Emilio T. Gonzalez, who argues that “without a U.S.-controlled Greenland, we might wake up one day to discover that critical mineral mines are Chinese-owned and that strategic shipping routes through the Arctic are controlled by 45 Russian icebreakers — not to mention the threat of advanced Russian and Chinese ballistic, hypersonic and cruise missiles positioned in the region.

“As an American-controlled territory, Greenland would open a new frontier for economic investment and opportunity. From sustainable fishing and mining to high-tech research and tourism, the economic potential for its 56,000 residents is as vast as it is undeveloped,” Mr. Gonzalez, a retired U.S. intelligence officer, writes in an op-ed for The Times.

“If Greenlanders prefer to remain under Danish sovereignty, that is their right, but they should also be presented with the opportunity to accept the benefits of a new geopolitical arrangement,” he writes. “If they opt for the security, prosperity and far-reaching opportunities afforded by American citizenship, then the U.S. should make available an attractive option.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Feb. 2 — What Future After the War? Opportunities for Ukraine’s Security, Democracy and Prosperity, American Enterprise Institute

• Feb. 2 — The Results and Implications of Myanmar’s Elections, Stimson Center

• Feb. 3 — Securing Critical Mineral Supply: A Government-Industry Dialogue, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Feb. 3 — One Month Without Maduro: On the Ground Perspectives, Atlantic Council

• Feb. 3 — STARTing Over? Russo-American Arms Control at a Crossroads, Stimson Center

• Feb. 4 — Reimagining Mediterranean Security with Greek Minister for National Defense Nikos Dendias, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Feb. 5 — Bluff or Death? How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats,’ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Feb. 10 — Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Cadenazzi on Rebooting America’s Defense Industrial Base, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.