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Threat Status for Monday, January 19, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs on NATO allies to clear the way for a U.S. takeover of Greenland is facing serious pushback on Capitol Hill.

… Mr. Trump sent a message to Norway’s prime minister saying he no longer feels “an obligation to think purely of peace” because he didn’t receive the Nobel Peace Prize and only U.S. control of Greenland can ensure global security.

… Security analysts warn Russia may be preparing to strike Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.

… Steve Pykett, CEO of Fairbanks Morse Defense, says in an exclusive interview on the Threat Status weekly podcast the coming “Golden Fleet is going to be very UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] heavy.”

… The U.S. is accusing South Africa of “cozying up” to Tehran by allowing Iranian warships to participate in the multinational naval exercise it hosted over the past week.

… The Trump administration has approved a deal to dramatically expand Peru’s main naval base, which is 40 miles from a Chinese-built megaport.

… Washington’s increased focus on the Western Hemisphere has become a source of major handwringing among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific.

… And the Pentagon’s Central Command says a U.S. airstrike on Friday killed a terrorist operative linked to al Qaeda who was directly connected to the ambush last month that killed two American service members and a civilian interpreter in Syria.

U.S. pivot to Western Hemisphere forcing Asian allies to rethink

President Donald Trump, left, and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung attend a high honor ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyoeongju, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

The Trump administration’s shift from Europe and the Far East to focus more diplomatic efforts and military resources on the Western Hemisphere has American allies in Asia scrambling to recalibrate their own relationships with the United States. Critics say China and Russia are likely to seize on the developments, offering Moscow a tailor-made justification for its designs on Eastern Europe and Beijing a rationale for flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon examines the situation, reporting that no single alliance unites the Indo-Pacific, where Washington has customarily managed regional security via bilateral mutual defense treaties with capitals including Canberra, Manila, Seoul and Tokyo. Some, such as former Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have floated an “Asian NATO.” The idea has gained no traction. Seoul-based academic and geostrategist Moon Chung-in tells Mr. Salmon “alternative solutions” are needed. “We can create an anti-China alliance, but another alternative is the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe model.”

An OSCE-style security organization, rather than a defensive alliance, could build confidence with personnel exchanges, crisis hotlines and joint oversight of drills, says Mr. Moon, who believes it could be strengthened by cross-border economic integration as a hedge against regional conflict. He also argues an Asian multilateral body should welcome China, saying Beijing could, because of economic interests, be talked out of invading Taiwan.

U.S., Japan to boost defense cooperation with more intense exercises

This photo provided by Japan's Ministry of Defense shows the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's F-15 fighters holding a joint military drill with the U.S. B-52 bomber in the vicinity of Japanese airspace on Wednesday Dec. 10, 2025. (Japan's Ministry of Defense via AP, File)

The U.S. and Japan have agreed to increase cooperation on fielding new and more capable missiles and to step up military exercises along the so-called First Island Chain stretching from Japan south across the coast of China.

Japan’s defense ministry said in a statement following a meeting last week with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi that the moves are aimed at confronting an increasingly “severe security environment” — a reference to ever-growing threats posed by China.

Tensions remain high between Japan and China over Tokyo’s control of the Senkaku Islands, which China claims. Beijing is also fuming over recent statements by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japanese forces would defend Taiwan in a potential Chinese attack. China recently cut off exports to Japan of dual-use, military-civilian items in response to the prime minister’s November remarks.

U.S.-Iran tensions simmer as Trump and Khamenei trade barbs

A man holds a poster of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a funeral ceremony for a group of security forces, who were killed during anti-government protests, in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Mr. Trump called over the weekend for “new leadership” in Iran just hours after a social media tirade by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who blamed the U.S. president personally for violent protests across Tehran and the deaths of thousands of Iranians.

The rhetorical brinkmanship coincided with speculation that Mr. Trump may still order direct military action against Iran and potentially against the ayatollah himself. The recent U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro underscored the administration’s willingness to use military force to remove an adversary head of state.

The Iranian regime’s crackdown on protesters has been bloody. Some estimates put the death toll at well over 10,000. An exact number is difficult to pin down amid an internet and information blackout imposed across much of Iran. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said Sunday that it had verified at least 3,766 deaths.

Exclusive podcast: When will Trump’s Golden Fleet actually sail?

Ben is joined by Washington Times Correspondent John T. Seward to discuss the proposed "Golden Fleet" of battleships, the Pentagon's $1 billion stake in a solid rocket motor manufacturer, and whether the U.S. will launch new military strikes on Iran.

Last week’s annual symposium of the Surface Navy Association brought “more clarity” to Mr. Trump’s Golden Fleet initiative to revitalize U.S. Navy shipbuilding, according to the CEO of Fairbanks Morse Defense, who joined the Threat Status weekly podcast for an exclusive interview from the floor of the symposium.

“The big battleship ‘Trump-Class’ is something certainly Fairbanks Morse is very excited about,” said Mr. Pykett, reflecting on buzz around the initiative at the Wisconsin-based company, a leading U.S. defense industry provider of diesel and electric marine propulsion engines.

“The products we’ve developed and continue to develop will certainly be very closely aligned with the requirements of that battleship, so we’re very engaged in making sure we can be the first there to kind of offer our solutions,” Mr. Pykett told Threat Status. He noted that indications from U.S. officials thus far are that the “Golden Fleet is going to be very UAV heavy” — a reference to the increased focus on integrating drones into future surface-Navy platforms.

Opinion: Extend the new START treaty now

START treaty between the United States and Russia and nuclear weapons illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

U.S. policymakers “need to focus immediately on the New START treaty between the United States and Russia, which is set to expire in February,” write Abigail R. Hall and Patrik S. Ward. referring to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

“The treaty, in effect since 2011, limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems each country may possess,” Ms. Hall and Mr. Ward write in an op-ed for The Times. “It requires biannual exchanges of data regarding the size and location of nuclear forces, as well as on-site inspections. The agreement governs an estimated 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

“The impending expiration has received shockingly little attention, but this silence is dangerous,” they write. “Although the treaty may have fallen off the global radar screen amid the churn of daily chaos, its expiration risks triggering one of the most consequential policy failures of our time: a renewed nuclear arms race between the United States and Russia.”

Ms. Hall is a senior fellow with the Independent Institute in California, associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa and co-author of the book “How to Run Wars: A Confidential Playbook for the National Security Elite.” Mr. Ward is an economics student at the University of Tampa and a member of the Adam Smith Society.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Jan. 20 — The Future of Biosafety: Confronting Gain-of-Function Research, The Heritage Foundation

• Jan. 21 — Artificial General Intelligence: America’s Next National Security Frontier, Institute of World Politics

• Jan. 21 — What Happens in Geostationary Orbit Doesn’t Stay There, Royal United Services Institute

• Jan. 21 — Power, Perception and Priorities: How Americans View U.S. Global Influence, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Jan. 21 — Discovery Series: Space Force 2040 and the Future Fight, Johns Hopkins University

• Jan. 22 — Assessing the China-Russia Threat Nexus in Technology and Information Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Jan. 22 — The Arsenal of Freedom Tour and What it Means, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Jan. 27-28 — Qubits26: Quantum Realized, D-Wave

• Jan. 29 — The World, Rewired – A Geopolitical Outlook for 2026 and Beyond, Stimson Center

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.