Threat Status for Friday, January 9, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
The U.S. Senate is advancing a war powers measure to rein in President Trump’s military actions in Venezuela.
… Mr. Trump says he canceled a “second wave of attacks” because he sees progress in Caracas.
… The U.S. seized another tanker suspected of carrying embargoed oil from Venezuela in a predawn mission Friday.
… A key Chinese Communist Party influencer has praised Mr. Trump’s Venezuela raid and criticized Beijing for failing to conduct a similar operation against Taiwan.
… Defense industry stocks surged this week following Mr. Trump’s call for a $1.5 trillion military budget in fiscal 2027.
… The Trump administration is awarding $2.7 billion to three companies to increase domestic uranium enrichment.
… The Department of Labor has announced nearly $14 million in funding to reinvigorate and rebuild the U.S. maritime industry and workforce.
… Beijing-Seoul ties warmed during South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who seeks to drive a wedge between America’s top security allies in the region.
… The Justice Department has charged a California man with handling tens of millions of dollars in a Chinese money-laundering scheme supporting Mexican drug cartels.
… And Nadia Schadlow, a key adviser to Mr. Trump during his first term, says in a Washington Times exclusive video forum that critics are off the mark when they say the Trump administration is “retreating globally.”
U.S. forces in a two-week stretch destroyed more than 70 Islamic State targets in Syria, struck extremists in northern Nigeria and carried out a daring raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from a heavily guarded compound in Caracas. While often taken for granted, that kind of global reach and the ability to plan and execute complex, highly dangerous missions are unmatched by any other military, even in an era of resurgent great powers such as Russia and China.
The recent operations on three continents, along with other missions last year such as the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, served as demonstrations of America’s pure military power and the unique U.S. ability to fuse its intelligence-gathering capabilities around the world with cutting-edge defense technology and careful planning at the highest levels inside the Pentagon. The result, analysts say, is a military that is unrivaled among today’s global powers and stands alone in history.
Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang that U.S. forces “can reach out and touch our enemies around the world in ways that no other military can.” He adds that “you get what you pay for. … This is a result of investing in our military over the long term.”
The first “request for solutions” in the Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Initiative, a $1 billion plan to have small, expendable drones built domestically, closes Friday, as companies compete for a shot at long-term defense contracts and a chance to be part of an order for 30,000 of the deadly battlefield devices that U.S. military officials say will be placed by July.
The DDI website says the first round of product evaluations, named “Gauntlet 1,” is slated to take place in February for selected companies. Those that make the first cut will receive funding in the form of “prototype” awards that the Pentagon says “are intended to test production scale and operational use” of the designs selected.
Military officials say nearly every drone part will be required to be manufactured domestically. The Blue List, a collection of approved commercial products and drones maintained by the Defense Contract Management Agency and developed by the Defense Innovation Unit, will be a critical reference to companies wanting to participate. It was developed in 2020 after Congress prohibited drones with components, software, radios or network pieces manufactured in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea.
Iran’s theocratic ruling regime is facing an existential challenge, as widespread protests expand across most of the Islamic republic’s provinces, spurred on by a severe economic downturn in recent months. Experts at the Middle East Institute think tank said at a forum this week that the protests, inspired by Iranians’ basic needs, have become so broad it is becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to ignore or combat them.
Foreign Affairs Reporter Vaughn Cockayne notes the protests began late last year with small-scale and rare shopkeeper strikes in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. They have now expanded to 27 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The Center for Human Rights in Iran reported this week that Iranian authorities have intensified crackdowns with live fire on demonstrators, while more than 2,000 people had been arrested in connection with the protests as of Jan. 7. The regime also has shut down the country’s internet.
U.S. intelligence is watching the developments closely. It is not clear who Washington would back in Tehran, should the demonstrations topple the regime. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former U.S.-backed Shah of Iran, is urging Iranians to continue their protests.
“You saw how a massive crowd forces the repressive forces to retreat. Those of you who were hesitant, join your fellow compatriots on Friday night and make the crowd even larger so that the regime’s repressive power becomes ever weaker,” he said on social media. “I know that despite the internet and communication cuts, you will not abandon the streets.”
Maritime crime and piracy are at their highest levels in waterways around the world since COVID-19. Both the Gulf of Guinea off West Africa and the Straits of Singapore saw four-year highs for piracy in 2025, according to data published by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, which specifically notes 13 incidents of hijackings, kidnappings or other violence around the Horn of Africa — down from 18 in 2024.
Threat Status Special Correspondent Joseph Hammond examines the situation, homing in on the manner in which Somali pirates are increasingly intermingled with arms smuggling and the activities of the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group in Yemen.
Cyrus Mody, deputy director at the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau, tells Mr. Hammond that “incidents of piracy and armed robbery are often local in nature, but the consequence is felt internationally when, during the height of Somali piracy, we had a large number of ships rerouting to avoid the Horn of Africa.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin “creates the false impression that he favors dialogue with President Trump and Mr. Trump’s envoys, but Mr. Putin seeks only to delay implementation of the massive sanctions package the Senate has approved and which now awaits the president’s signature,” according to Daniel N. Hoffman, a retired CIA Clandestine Services officer and contributor to Threat Status.
“Mr. Putin also wants to direct our frustration at Ukraine — rather than the Kremlin, where the blame belongs — for failure to end the war,” Mr. Hoffman writes in a Times op-ed. “He wishes to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe, break NATO and demonstrate that the U.S. is powerless to project power in the Kremlin’s self-designated post-Soviet sphere of influence.
“Further negotiations with Ukraine are serving the Kremlin more than the cause of peace because Mr. Putin has never shown any interest in stopping his barbaric war short of Ukraine’s complete surrender,” he writes. “As a sovereign state, Ukraine should decide the number of soldiers in its army, whether to host NATO troops and when to hold elections. How hypocritical of Mr. Putin, Russia’s dictator for life, to make such demands of democratically elected Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”
• Jan. 14 — A New Direction for Artificial Intelligence and Students: Findings from the Brookings Global Task Force on AI and Education, Brookings Institution
• Jan. 15 — 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026, Chatham House
• Jan. 20 — The Future of Biosafety: Confronting Gain-of-Function Research, The Heritage Foundation
• Jan. 21 — Artificial General Intelligence: America’s Next National Security Frontier, Institute of World Politics
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