Threat Status for Tuesday, December 23, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
The U.S. Space Development Agency has announced roughly $3.5 billion for four companies to build the next generation “tracking layer” satellite constellation.
… President Trump says the Navy will build a new “Golden Fleet,” with the first large battleship to be armed with hypersonic missiles, nuclear cruise missiles and high-powered lasers.
… The Pentagon says U.S. forces hit another drug-smuggling boat off South America.
… A Russian drone and missile barrage hit 13 regions of Ukraine overnight, causing widespread electricity outages amid freezing temperatures.
… Ukraine’s military is facing a major recruiting shortage and desertion crisis.
… Russia is hosting Syria’s foreign minister in Moscow in a bid to lure Damascus into closer ties.
… Denmark and Greenland are rejecting U.S. territorial claims following Mr. Trump’s appointment of a special envoy.
… U.S. counterterrorism officials say they helped arrest a Jalisco New Generation Cartel affiliate in Mexico who’s accused of gunning down a Texas teenager.
… And North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is touting new luxury hotels for elites near his country’s border with China.
The underpinnings of a new Trump foreign policy doctrine are becoming clear as the president closes out the first year of his second term with a push toward what analysts describe as a 19th-century-style “spheres of influence” approach exemplified by the administration’s focus on Venezuela and greater Latin America taking center stage.
Many analysts agree that the administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy, released in November, cemented the reality that the spheres of influence approach is in full swing. Some argue the approach could have massive economic and security consequences for the Western Hemisphere. At a minimum, the new strategy indicates the U.S. now officially views Latin America as its backyard and is determined to push geopolitical rivals, namely China, from the region.
National Security reporter Vaughn Cockayne examines the situation, noting that spheres of influence became the dominant approach to foreign policy in the 19th century as imperialism expanded and nations sought to carve out pieces of the globe for themselves. The practice fell out of favor in the aftermath of World War II as nations promoted open markets around the world.
Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak in Ukraine writes from Kyiv that as a fourth winter of all-out war unfolds, Ukrainian forces face acute recruiting shortages, soaring desertion figures and a steady outflow of draft-age citizens to Europe, leaving the military struggling to hold the front against a Russian army that maintains a consistent manpower advantage.
More than 21,600 cases of Ukrainian military desertion were recorded in October alone, a wartime record, according to one account. Another says the number of soldiers actually absent is roughly 150,000. The government in Kyiv has responded with a mix of punishment and pragmatism. On the one hand, lawmakers have stiffened penalties for desertion and commanders have launched periodic crackdowns on draft dodging in major cities.
Moscow, meanwhile, shows no sign of manpower fatigue. British officials estimate Russia’s total casualties at close to 1 million since 2022, yet the Kremlin continues to sign 50,000 to 60,000 recruits every month, buoyed by lucrative cash bonuses, subsidized housing and the mass incorporation of prison inmates.
Space has already been weaponized, and Washington needs to work diligently with its partners to ensure U.S. superiority in the final frontier, according to Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force John F. Bentivegna, who tells the Threat Status weekly podcast that the service has correctly identified space as a key warfighting domain.
“Space has absolutely been identified, and we consider it a warfighting domain. The foundational purpose of the Space Force is to provide space superiority for the nation,” he said. “When you think about what’s on the ground, whether it be lasers or electronic warfare, trying to jam GPS, trying to jam satellite communications … our competitors and adversaries have been investing in how to negate this advantage that we have as a nation.”
Chief Master Sgt. Bentivegna, who joined the Space Force in late 2020, advises Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman on the employment, training, education and development of the Space Force. The race for dominance in space has only heated up since the chief master sergeant began his tenure. China has launched hundreds of successful missions since 2020 and has launched at least 90 of its G60 communications satellites to low-Earth orbit that will become part of Beijing’s Qianfan mega-constellation project.
Each service cleared its specific recruiting goal and achieved its best recruiting numbers in 15 years, according to the Pentagon. The Army had a goal of 61,000 recruits and hit 62,050. The Navy had a goal of 40,600 recruits and hit 44,096. The Air Force had a goal of 30,100 recruits and attained 30,166. The Space Force had a goal of 796 recruits and hit 819, and the Marine Corps met its goal of 26,600 recruits, officials said in a press release.
Officials said all reserve components also hit the mark, except for the Army Reserve, which met 75% of its recruiting goal. Pentagon officials are drawing a direct line between the political shifts of the 2024 presidential election and the surge in recruiting.
The blockbuster recruiting figures will bolster the argument made by Mr. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the approach of the Trump administration — specifically the push to roll back what critics view as left-wing “woke” policies inside the Pentagon embraced by the previous administration — is resonating with young Americans.
The mandate is contained in a section of the $900 billion National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law by Mr. Trump on Thursday. It requires the secretary of defense, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and commander of the Indo-Pacific Command to complete within three months a comprehensive study on mobilizing the reserves.
Another provision of the law requires the Pentagon to report to Congress on addressing critical shortages of munitions for weapons and the propellants needed to conduct conflicts in two geographical locations. Both legal measures reflect bipartisan concern in Congress that growing tensions with China could ignite into a major conflict.
Mr. Hegseth warned U.S. allies during a speech in Singapore in May that the threat of a conflict with China over a military advance on Taiwan is real and “could be imminent.” The military currently includes 1.3 million active-duty troops in all services, plus about 800,000 to 1 million reserve and National Guard members.
• Jan. 14 — A New Direction for Artificial Intelligence and Students: Findings from the Brookings Global Task Force on AI and Education, Brookings Institution
• Jan. 15 — 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026, Chatham House
• Jan. 20 — The Future of Biosafety: Confronting Gain-of-Function Research, The Heritage Foundation
• Jan. 21 — Artificial General Intelligence: America’s Next National Security Frontier, Institute of World Politics
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