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Threat Status for Tuesday, November 25, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

China’s propaganda drive against Tokyo has hit a new high, with one Chinese Communist Party-controlled media outlet suggesting nuclear missile strikes on Japan.

… The white-hot rhetoric out of Beijing comes on the heels of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose a survival threat to Japan and could spark military intervention.

… China joins the U.S. and Russia as a leading world power openly discussing the resumption of nuclear weapons testing or the actual use of such weapons.

… President Trump will visit China in April and will host Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit later in 2026. 

… Kyiv says it has reached an agreement with the U.S. on the core terms of a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, though some details have yet to be ironed out.

… The Pentagon says it is investigating Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, a retired Navy captain, after a video in which Mr. Kelly urged troops to refuse unlawful orders. 

… Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll’s political stock is soaring amid his high-profile role in the Ukraine peace talks.

… Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine traveled to Puerto Rico this week amid the U.S. military build-up in Latin America and possibility of strikes against Venezuela. 

… And the Treasury Department says it imposed a $4.7 million fine on an American real estate investor for violating U.S. sanctions on Russia. The individual was identified only as “U.S. Person-1.”

Army Secretary Driscoll sees his stock soar after debut on world stage

President Donald Trump waves as Secretary of the U.S. Army Daniel P. Driscoll watches at Pope Army Airfield at Fort Bragg, Tuesday, June 10, 2025, in Fort Bragg, N.C. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) ** FILE **

Mr. Driscoll’s profile has gradually risen throughout the year, to the point that he — not Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — played a central role in the Trump administration’s high-level negotiations with Ukraine over the weekend. He also met with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday, proving his appearance in Geneva was not a one-off but rather evidence that the White House now sees him as a major international power player. 

And Mr. Driscoll seems to enjoy something else lacking across the upper echelons of the administration: respect and admiration from at least some Democrats.

Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward offers a deep dive into the background of the 38-year-old Mr. Driscoll, the youngest Army secretary in the nation’s history, a veteran and an accomplished businessman. His stock is rising even as his boss, Mr. Hegseth, sees his own political capital diminishing in some circles. 

Whether Mr. Driscoll is being groomed for a higher position has become one of the hottest topics of conversation in national security circles. If he is, Mr. Driscoll would enjoy a level of bipartisan respect that has eluded other top Trump administration officials, one Democratic lawmaker told Mr. Seward.

“He’s a serious guy who is willing to have a conversation in a way that is both professional and shows he has a cogent worldview,” the lawmaker said.

Pentagon takes aim at Sen. Mark Kelly

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., speaks during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, at the Capitol in Washington, Jan. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/John McDonnell, File)

The feud between the Trump administration’s Pentagon leadership and Mr. Kelly is escalating quickly. Mr. Hegseth tore into Mr. Kelly in a lengthy post on X, blasting the video made by the Arizona Democrat and five other Democratic lawmakers as “despicable, reckless and false.” He referred to those lawmakers as the “seditious six.”

Military Correspondent Mike Glenn unpacks the entire ordeal and where it might go from here, including the potential for Mr. Kelly to be recalled to active duty and face court-martial proceedings under 18 U.S. Code Section 2387, which makes it a crime to engage in activities affecting the U.S. armed forces that promote insubordination or disloyalty within the military.

Mr. Kelly wasted little time in firing back

“If this is meant to intimidate me and other members of Congress from doing our jobs and holding this administration accountable, it won’t work,” he wrote on X. “I’ve given too much to this country to be silenced by bullies who care more about their own power than protecting the Constitution.”

Territory concessions sticking point in U.S.-Ukraine talks

A residential building is seen heavily damaged after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

Russia and Ukraine traded military strikes on Tuesday even as the U.S., with Mr. Driscoll in Abu Dhabi to meet with a high-level Russian delegation, continued its peace push.

But it’s not clear whether the three sides can find consensus on the major sticking point at the center of Mr. Trump’s plan: The notion of territorial concessions from Ukraine to Russia, including parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, along with Crimea, which Russia has controlled for more than a decade.

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators indicated that they made significant progress in bridging the gaps on other facets of the plan. A top Ukrainian official said the two sides have agreed to the core terms of a deal. But Ukraine said the matter of territory can be decided only at the head of state level. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he intends to discuss the issue with Mr. Trump, perhaps as soon as this week.

Opinion: Trump's Ukraine peace plan will encourage future wars

Illustration on relations between Putin and Trump by Linas Garsys/The Washington Times

The long-awaited Ukraine-Russia peace proposal put forward by the White House will have the opposite effect Mr. Trump intends, according to syndicated columnist Cal Thomas, who argues in The Washington Times that the plan cedes so much to Russia that the Kremlin will inevitably feel vindicated and pursue new conflicts in the future.

The proposal has gone through significant changes after days of intense U.S.-Ukraine negotiations. But at its core, the plan hinges on territorial concessions from Ukraine to Russia and severe limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities and its ability to join NATO. Mr. Thomas and other observers have little hope Russia would abide by the terms of the deal, including the creation of a “buffer zone” between the two warring nations.

“There is so much potential for Russia to violate the proposed agreement and so little effective response outlined if it does. These include more sanctions, which so far have not worked,” Mr. Thomas writes. “Mr. Trump likes to say he wants to end wars. This agreement will only encourage Mr. Putin’s voracious appetite to start new wars and eventually finish the one against Ukraine.”

Opinion: Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs vital for national security

Steel and aluminum tariffs to power the United States of America's economy illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

They’ve generated plenty of political controversy and sparked division between the U.S. and its close ally to the north, Canada. But Mr. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum are actually vital for American national security, specifically to ensure reliable supply chains for the manufacturing of key military equipment.

Retired Army Gen. Michael Flynn, who served as Mr. Trump’s White House national security adviser during his first term, makes that case in a new piece for The Times.

“Depending on imported steel and aluminum to produce our tanks and planes makes America less safe. In an emergency, our inability to ramp up domestic production represents a clear and present danger to U.S. national security,” Mr. Flynn writes. “Mr. Trump recognizes that allowing unfairly traded imports to hollow out our manufacturing supply chains will make America vulnerable.

“The simple reality is that we must be able to assemble tanks, fighter jets, planes, ships and even cars in the U.S. using American-made steel and aluminum. A strong and secure manufacturing supply chain, even down to the semi-finished parts suppliers, is critical to American greatness,” he says.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Nov. 26 — Iraq’s 2025 Elections: What Comes Next? Chatham House

• Dec. 2 — Strengthening U.S. Alliances and Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, Brookings Institution

• Dec. 2 — Keeping China Grounded: Ensuring Long-Term U.S. Tech Leadership in Low Earth Orbit, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Dec. 2-3 — AI+ Space Summit, Special Competitive Studies Project  

• Dec. 4 — The FIFA World Cup and National Security Resilience: Private-Sector Perspectives, Atlantic Council

• Dec. 5 — Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic Path: Regional Security, Energy Opportunity and Democratic Resilience, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 6 — 2025 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.