Threat Status for Wednesday, November 19, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told President Trump that Riyadh does “want to be part” of the Abraham Accords but still seeks a two-state solution for Palestinians.
… A White House fact sheet on the summit Tuesday emphasized that Mr. Trump has “approved a major defense sale package, including future F-35 deliveries” for the Saudis.
… A Russian attack killed 20 people, including two children, in Ukraine Wednesday as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Turkey seeking Ankara’s support against Moscow.
… The Trump administration has been secretly working with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to a report by Axios.
… Friction between Japan and China over Beijing’s threats toward Taiwan is not abating.
… The congressionally backed U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s annual report has sharp warnings about the prospect of war over Taiwan.
… A trial is underway in Syria over allegations tied to the killings of nearly 1,500 Alawite minority members and more than 200 Syrian military troops in March.
… Iran has released the Marshall Islands-based fuel tanker that it seized five days ago in the Strait of Hormuz.
… And leaders from the Group of 20 rich and developing nations will descend on Johannesburg this weekend for the bloc’s first-ever summit in Africa.
Mr. Trump and the Saudi crown prince, also known as MBS, inked a historic U.S.-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement Tuesday to strengthen the more than 80-year security partnership between the two nations. The president then put icing on the cake at a White House dinner with the crown prince by announcing the U.S. is formally designating Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally.
Those were two key takeaways from the daylong summit between the two men. A few other eye-opening developments saw Mr. Trump assert that he and MBS “reached an agreement” for the Saudis to purchase F-35 fighter jets. It’s a thrilling announcement for the U.S. defense industrial base, although details remain vague beyond Mr. Trump saying the Saudis will increase investments in the U.S. to $1 trillion. Here’s the White House fact sheet on the summit.
The crown prince, meanwhile, said Saudi Arabia does “want to be part of the Abraham Accord,” which would see Riyadh normalize relations with Israel. Again, however, details on when that may happen were scarce. Finally, Mr. Trump drew criticism in the U.S. media by defending the crown prince over the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post opinion columnist, in 2018. A CIA assessment that year concluded that the crown prince ordered the killing.
The Chinese Communist Party and its military forces are preparing the entire country for a future war with the United States over Taiwan, the hot spots in the South China Sea or disputed territory near Japan, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s annual report warns. The report released on Tuesday also warns that the U.S. and allied effort to counter Chinese communist expansion and the replacement of the U.S.-led democratic system in the world is an urgent problem.
National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz digs into the report, which also assesses that China’s large-scale military modernization is advancing significantly and has not been affected by extensive purges of key military leaders. Over the past year, increases took place in nuclear warhead stockpiles, new amphibious warships, deployment of more advanced stealth fighter jets and greater fielding of drone weapons, the report states.
An alarming indicator of a potential conflict with China was disclosed in what the report called a divergence between Chinese and English language propaganda about Taiwan. Chinese statements sent to international audiences have downplayed the prospect of a Taiwan invasion. Contrary to that, Chinese domestic propaganda has stated that “provocations” by Taiwan could justify military action in the near future. The split “suggests Beijing may be taking initial steps to prepare its people for the possibility of war,” the report said.
The mission to China by Japan’s Foreign Ministry Director for Asian and Oceanic Affairs Kanai Masaaki to try to defuse Tokyo-Beijing tensions over Taiwan appears to have failed. Few details of the visit have emerged, but a video clip circulating across Chinese social media showed Mr. Masaaki apparently bowing toward his Chinese counterpart, Liu Jinsong, who pointedly had his hands in his pockets.
China’s Xinhua state news agency then carried a report saying the current friction “is rooted in the fact that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi openly made wrong remarks related to Taiwan, grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs, seriously violated the one-China principle … and undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations.”
After two weeks of friction, Tokyo is on the defensive, but experts say Beijing’s rage could be a cover for domestic problems — and may undermine the Chinese Communist Party’s multilayered attempts to portray itself as a reasonable global actor. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports that Beijing’s blustering over Taiwan has had one likely unintended effect on internal Japanese politics: Ms. Takaichi, the blunt-spoken China hawk, has seen her approval ratings skyrocket.
The U.S. Coast Guard will receive 11 cutting-edge polar icebreakers, with most being built in the U.S., under the deal to help defend the Arctic against adversaries like China and Russia. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Finland’s Minister of Economic Affairs Sakari Puisto signed a joint statement of intent on Tuesday to bolster their icebreaker fleets by strengthening industrial cooperation.
The U.S. currently has three polar icebreakers: the heavy icebreaker USCGC Polar Star; the USCGC Healy, a medium icebreaker; and the USCGC Storis, a commercial vessel that was purchased in December 2024.
As part of the new deal, Finland and Canada agreed to invest in U.S. shipyards and train American workers on the unique job skills required for a specialized project like a polar icebreaker. In September, the Canadian shipbuilder Davie announced a $1 billion plan to acquire Gulf Copper & Manufacturing Corp., a company with facilities in Port Arthur and Galveston, Texas, for building icebreakers.
Tehran is experiencing a “massive and deepening water shortage,” according to Ilan Berman, who writes in a Times op-ed that “local authorities have been forced to mandate water rationing, and the situation has become so dire that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently warned that, unless the region experiences rainfall in the coming weeks, the city may need to be evacuated altogether.
“The reasons have everything to do with the skewed priorities of Iran’s ruling clerical regime,” writes Mr. Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council think tank. “True to their revolutionary pedigree, Iran’s ayatollahs have consistently preferred guns over butter. They have poured billions of dollars into the country’s nuclear program, its burgeoning arsenal of ballistic missiles and its extensive network of terrorist proxies.
“What they have not done is make a meaningful, sustained nationwide effort to reverse the country’s worsening water situation,” he writes. “Now that the crisis has truly hit, Iranian officials are predictably trying to deflect the blame onto the Iranian people themselves.”
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