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Threat Status for Monday, November 17, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

The Trump administration says Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is a drug cartel boss.

… Secretary of State Marco Rubio is designating “Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” saying it is “headed” by Mr. Maduro and other top Venezuelan officials. 

… Russia says it will honor its treaty with Venezuela, while questions swirl over whether or not President Trump will order direct strikes.

… Mr. Trump will push for a long-elusive normalization of Saudi-Israel relations when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House on Tuesday.

… A “shadow fleet” of tankers carrying sanctioned oil from Iran and Russia is finding safe harbor in China, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

… Director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine are slated to participate in fireside chats at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Dec. 6.

… Sources tell Threat Status that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is still weighing whether to speak at the forum.

… And Poland, which has detained dozens over suspected sabotage and espionage since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, says a rail line explosion near Warsaw on Sunday was an act of “sabotage.”

Venezuela on a knife edge

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro points at a map of the Americas during a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela, Sept 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jesus Vargas), File

U.S. Navy strikes against alleged drug cartels in the Caribbean and talk of an American invasion have Venezuelans on edge, but many said in interviews over the weekend that after years of chaos and violence under the socialist regime of Mr. Maduro, they are more worried about day-to-day survival than a conflict with the United States.

Speculation over the prospect of direct U.S. strikes on Venezuela is rising. Mr. Trump said Friday he had met with top military advisers to decide whether to continue bombing boats off the Venezuelan coast. “I sort of made up my mind,” the president said. “I can’t tell you what it is, but we made a lot of progress with Venezuela in terms of stopping drugs from pouring in.”

Some 20 vessels have been struck, with at least 80 people, whom Mr. Trump calls narco-terrorists, killed. The State Department issued a statement Sunday that it “intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” saying the cartel is based in Venezuela and “headed by Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime.”

Podcast: Can Hegseth deliver on acquisition reform?

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks to reporters before looking at a display of multi-domain autonomous systems in the Pentagon courtyard in Washington on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) **FILE**

Mr. Wolfgang and Mr. Taylor break down the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group in Latin America in the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast. They also discuss the current and future status of the Pentagon’s secretive Replicator program.

Then, Thomas Akers, founder and CEO of Zone 5 Technologies, a key drone maker and Pentagon contractor, joins the show to break down Mr. Hegseth’s recent speech on acquisition reform and his assertion that “speed and volume will rule” over the Pentagon’s approach to buying weapons and working with private contractors.

Mr. Akers tells the podcast that “moving to velocity in the acquisition system” was the most critical aspect of Mr. Hegseth’s speech. “The pace of advancement of the threat is ever increasing, and we must have acquisition processes within our defense industrial base that allow us to iterate and evolve and match the pace of the threat,” Mr. Akers says. “So the movement towards more non-traditional vendors [and] non-traditional contract vehicles is a very welcomed position.”

Exclusive video: Trump’s talk of resuming nuclear tests ratchets up tensions with Moscow, Beijing

President Trump's threat to resume nuclear weapons tests has sparked unease in Moscow and Beijing and triggered frustration among some U.S. nonproliferation experts who say the administration is sending mixed signals on an intensely sensitive global security issue.

Washington Times Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward in an exclusive video presentation examines the dynamics surrounding the great power posturing among the U.S., China and Russia over the prospect of carrying out major nuclear detonation tests that would end a moratorium that all three nations have generally adhered to for the past three decades.

The video breaks down how Mr. Trump’s threat to resume U.S. nuclear weapons tests falls within the context of the fast-approaching expiration of the only remaining nonproliferation agreement between the U.S. and Russia — the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or “New START, which is set to expire in early February. Mr. Trump’s recent comments have spurred speculation that he is intentionally instigating conversation about nuclear testing and stockpiles ahead of renegotiations for New START. 

Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and then as secretary of state in Mr. Trump’s first term, says the need to include China, with its growing nuclear weapons arsenal, in any future version of START is critical. “The world in which those treaties were originally designed was a world where there were really only two global competitors that had weapons programs at scale,” Mr. Pompeo told Threat Status. “There are now three.”

Opinion: ‘Right to repair’ provisions threaten backbone of U.S. defense innovation

Spending to modernize the United States of America's military illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

America’s military advantage “depends on cutting-edge technology and a strong, resilient industrial base, but Congress is considering ‘right to repair’ provisions in the annual defense policy bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, that could put both at risk,” writes Eric Fanning, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association.

“On paper, these provisions sound reasonable: Give the Pentagon and third parties broad access to contractors’ proprietary intellectual property to fix and maintain equipment,” Mr. Fanning writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. “This approach won’t solve our readiness problems, and it could cripple the very innovation on which our warfighters rely.

“Let’s be clear: The Pentagon already has the power to negotiate for the intellectual property it needs, contract by contract,” he writes. “If Congress forces contractors to hand over their intellectual property, it sends a chilling message to innovators and investors: Your hard-earned breakthroughs aren’t safe.”

Opinion: Trump’s Caucasus peace deal is a win for U.S.

Peace and trade between Azerbaijan and Armenia illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

On Oct. 21, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev “made a decision that could reshape the balance of power in one of the world’s most strategically vital crossroads: the region connecting Europe, Asia and the Middle East,” writes author and war correspondent Holly McKay.

“During a visit to Kazakhstan, Mr. Aliyev overturned long-standing restrictions on trade and transit across Azerbaijan’s border with Armenia,” Ms. McKay writes in a column for The Times. “That same day, a shipment of Kazakh wheat passed through Azerbaijan into Armenia. It was a small but historic act that symbolized something once thought impossible: reconciliation after decades of war.

“This move reinforces the Trump-brokered peace accords signed in August. It strengthens the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a trade and transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to its landlocked Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and beyond. The TRIPP is more than infrastructure,” she writes. ” It’s a geopolitical lifeline connecting pro-Western partners and giving the United States long-term influence in a region long dominated by Russia and Iran.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Nov. 17 — Success After Service: Careers in Tech and Cybersecurity for Veterans, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 17 — Power Under Pressure: The Fight to Protect Taiwan’s Energy Lifelines from Beijing’s Aggression, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 19 — Why U.S. Economic Security Runs Through Central America, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 19-21Defense TechConnect Innovation Summit & Expo

• Nov. 20 — Delivering Space Capabilities for Warfighting Advantage, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Nov. 20 — Countering the Criminal Drone Threat in the Americas, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Nov. 20 — Prepared, Not Paralyzed: Managing Artificial Intelligence Risks to Drive American Leadership, Center for a New American Security

• Dec. 2-3 — AI+ Space Summit, Special Competitive Studies Project  

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.