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Threat Status for Wednesday, November 12, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

America’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group arrived in the Caribbean on Tuesday amid a belief in some national security circles that U.S. attacks on Venezuela increasingly look like a matter of when, not if.

… The U.S. now has a great deal of firepower in the region. The Ford carries more than 4,000 sailors and dozens of tactical aircraft. Eight warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft are already in the Caribbean. The Trump administration says the moves are meant to support its campaign against alleged drug-smuggling boats in the region.

… Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his military commanders are reportedly planning a strategy of guerrilla warfare in the event of a full U.S. assault.

… President Trump marked Veterans Day by laying a wreath at Arlington National Cemetery. 

… China sent nearly 800 representatives to this week’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil. The U.S. sent no high-level officials to the gathering. 

… Russian forces are making gains in Ukraine, while Moscow also signaled it is prepared to restart peace talks with Kyiv.

… Iran is reportedly smuggling arms to terrorist proxies in the West Bank.

… Inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency have not been allowed to examine Iran’s damaged nuclear enrichment sites since June, according to a confidential report circulated to member nations. 

… And Serbian protesters want to block the construction of a $500 million luxury compound by a company linked to Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Britain stops sharing intelligence on alleged Caribbean drug boats

In this image provided by the U.S. Air Force, an Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bomber flies with Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II aircraft in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility, Oct. 15, 2025. (U.S. Air Force via AP) ** FILE **

There’s more news from the increasingly controversial U.S. military campaign against alleged drug boats. The Trump administration’s strikes on those vessels could be sparking a significant rift with one of its key allies.

Washington Times Reporter Vaughn Cockayne has more on reports that the U.K. stopped sharing intelligence with the U.S. about alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean over concerns the Pentagon’s strikes on the vessels may be illegal. CNN first reported the development.

This could be a major new twist to the story and could indicate that key U.S. allies are now moving to pressure the administration to rethink its approach. The U.K. for years shared intelligence with U.S. forces to combat terrorism and drug trafficking in the region. Britain has its own significant military presence in the Caribbean, including in the Cayman and the Turks and Caicos islands.

Typically, the U.K. would share intelligence with the Joint Interagency Task Force South, based in Florida as part of U.S. Southern Command, which would pass along relevant information to the U.S. Coast Guard so it could apprehend suspected drug-trafficking vessels. 

Exclusive: DHS catching more terrorism suspects at border — and that's a good thing

Concertina wire lines the interior of a border wall, one of two separating Tijuana, Mexico, from the United States, June 4, 2025, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)

The Department of Homeland Security closed out the fiscal year with its best border numbers in 50 years, showing major drops in every significant category but one — the number of terrorism suspects detected crossing. That figure shot up nearly 30-fold this year, hitting more than 950 suspected terrorists in September alone.

The Times’ Stephen Dinan has an exclusive report on why the administration says that’s actually good news for U.S. national security. There aren’t more terrorism suspects coming, but because of the administration’s decision to classify Mexico’s biggest smuggling cartels and several international gangs as terrorist organizations, their people are now being flagged in the Terrorist Screening Data Set, better known as the terrorism watchlist, when they do cross the border.

Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott told The Times that the new figures are “the result of properly identifying the dangerous actors who were always there.”

Russian troops gaining ground in Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers with the Kraken 1654 unit prepare a Vampire drone before a demonstration for The Associated Press, Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025, in Kharkiv oblast, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The Russian military is making gains in Ukraine in what could be one of the biggest battlefield shifts in recent months. The Russian army overran three settlements in the southern Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, military commanders in Kyiv acknowledged. The Kremlin boasted that it “liberated” those towns and killed more than 1,000 Ukrainian troops in the process, but those figures were not independently confirmed.

Separately, there are fierce battles raging in the besieged Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, in the eastern Donetsk region. Russian troops — some riding motorcycles — have used dense fog to help them advance into the town, which analysts fear is on the verge of falling entirely under Russian control.

Analysts say the rate of the Russian advance remains relatively slow. But the gains still could be viewed by Russian President Vladimir Putin as proof that his forces have the upper hand. The Kremlin is indicating it’s prepared to restart peace talks with Ukraine, perhaps with the belief that battlefield gains have given it more leverage at the negotiating table.

Opinion: Iran is cornered and that makes it even more dangerous

Ayatollah and Iran illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Its nuclear program was set back significantly by U.S. airstrikes in June. Its proxy network across the Middle East has been devastated. Its economy is deeply fragile. But could all of those factors actually make Iran even more dangerous?

Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired Israeli brigadier general and current head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, explores that possibility in a new column for The Times and argues that Iran’s leadership could decide to take an aggressive tack, rather than be viewed as weak. It could, among other things, attack Israel or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.

“The regime is resisting the path of compromise because it doesn’t want to appear weak, either to the world or its own people. Hard-liners could instead move the regime toward increased aggression as a way out of its paralysis,” Mr. Kuperwasser writes. “Time is running out for the ayatollah to decide which path to pursue, and that means things could come to a head in mere months.”

Opinion: Don't ignore the Christian genocide in Ethiopia

Christian genocide in Ethiopia illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Former Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie writes in The Times that “America risks its soul and security by doing nothing” in response to the deaths of Christians in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where more than 1 million people have been slaughtered since 2020.

Mr. Wilkie argues that the dire situation unfolding there goes far beyond a civil conflict. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime, he says, is backed by China, Iran and Russia as it wages its campaign against Tigray.

“If we lose Ethiopia, we lose one of Christianity’s oldest strongholds and a vital partner for the West in a region already teetering between tyranny and terrorism,” he writes, calling on the Trump administration to formally label the situation in Tigray a genocide, impose sanctions on the Ethiopian regime and begin delivering humanitarian aid to the region.

“The people of Tigray are not asking for American soldiers,” Mr. Wilkie writes. “They are asking for America’s voice. We should raise it now before one of the oldest Christian civilizations on earth vanishes, and with it a cornerstone of faith and freedom.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Nov. 12 — Space Force Association Washington Fall Social, SFA D.C. Chapter

• Nov. 13 — 10 Years of Arms Trade Treaty Transparency, Stimson Center

• Nov. 13 — U.S. Policy and the Path to Democracy in Venezuela after Maduro, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 13 — The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: Anthony Vinci on Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics and the Future of Espionage, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 13 — Meeting the U.S. Defense Imperative: Challenges and Opportunities in the Development of the Defense Industrial Base Workforce, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Nov. 17 — Power Under Pressure: The Fight to Protect Taiwan’s Energy Lifelines from Beijing’s Aggression, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 19-21 Defense TechConnect Innovation Summit & Expo

• Nov. 20 — Prepared, Not Paralyzed: Managing AI Risks to Drive American Leadership, Center for a New American Security

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.