Threat Status for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
Ukraine says strikes carried out mainly with its own long-range missiles have reduced Russia’s oil refining capacity by 20%.
… A senior Russian lawmaker says Moscow should consider giving Venezuela midrange ballistic missiles.
… The Trump administration’s legal argument for military action in the Caribbean is that cartels are using narcotics as de facto weapons of war against the United States.
… The administration is expected to ask the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions on vessels allegedly used to export coal and iron from North Korea.
… Turkey says Israeli attacks in Gaza are threatening the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.
… Famine is spreading again in Sudan, according to a leading hunger monitoring group.
… The military junta leader in Guinea is making moves to try to remain in power over the West African nation.
… A British intelligence assessment says Russian kindergarteners are getting military training in schools.
… And a Kansas National Guardsman remains in custody on charges of trying to sell a high-tech radio to Russia.
The Trump administration may have a solid argument that international drug cartels are using narcotics as de facto weapons of war and are targeting the U.S. with the intent of causing physical harm, in the form of drug addiction, to its citizens. Analysts say that rationale could be the administration’s best legal defense as it strikes alleged drug boats off the coasts of Central and South America, while insisting the U.S. technically isn’t at war and doesn’t need congressional approval.
The U.S. has struck at least 16 alleged drug boats and killed at least 64 people in the process. The administration has deemed them “narco-terrorists.” The strikes have received significant criticism at home, including from lawmakers of both parties, as well as abroad. Top officials at the United Nations recently said the administration is violating international law and carrying out extrajudicial killings.
Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap, now executive director of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security at Duke University Law School, dives into the nuances of the situation in an exclusive interview on the latest Threat Status weekly podcast. He says the administration is prosecuting its war on drug boats under a “law of war regime.” That differs from the law enforcement legal regime under which the U.S. Coast Guard, for years, has interdicted boats suspected of carrying drugs.
The South Korean government’s long-held policy of refusing to sell arms to nations at war is clashing with the country’s goal of emerging as a top provider of defense equipment on the world stage. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports on South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s reference to the “great dream” of making Seoul a top defense industry power during remarks at the recent Seoul Aerospace and Defense Exhibition 2025, or ADEX.
The catch is that South Korea has declined to arm Ukraine in its three-year-old battle against Russian invaders, while clinging to ties with Moscow. This is problematic given that high-ranking military personnel from Denmark, Finland and Latvia insisted in remarks during the recent Association of the U.S. Army, or AUSA, conference in Washington that stress-tests on Ukraine’s frontlines were purchase prerequisites for their countries.
South Korea was the world’s 10th largest arms exporter from 2020-2024, commanding 2.2% of the global market, according to 2025 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. No. 4, China, is far ahead with 5.9%. South Korea is an uber-efficient manufacturing powerhouse and world-leading supplier of ships, chips, cars and digital devices, and weaponry is coming into focus. However, despite a post-2022 surge in sales of mobile artillery, tanks, multiple rocket launchers, air defense systems and jet aircraft to nations as distant as Australia, Indonesia, Norway and Turkey, South Korea’s armaments sector has a long way to go to reach Mr. Lee’s “great dream.”
A fresh wave of American-made Patriot air defense systems provided by Germany have begun to arrive in Ukraine. German authorities say they’ve sent more Patriot systems from their own armed forces than any other country and have also supplied systems with different ranges, such as IRIS-T and Skynex.
NATO is coordinating regular deliveries of large weapons packages to Ukraine. The Associated Press reports European allies and Canada are buying much of the equipment from the United States, which has greater stocks of ready military materiel, as well as more effective weapons. The Trump administration is not giving any arms directly to Ukraine, unlike the previous Biden administration.
Ukraine is seeking long-range Tomahawk missiles from Washington. President Trump has so far ruled out providing them. In the interim, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says strikes carried out mainly with Ukraine’s own domestically produced long-range missiles have reduced Moscow’s oil refining capacity by 20%. Mr. Zelenskyy says Kyiv needs foreign financial help to produce more of the missiles.
“China will soon commission its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian,” retired U.S. Navy Capt. Carl O. Schuster writes in an op-ed in The Times. The Fujian’s three electromagnetic aircraft launch systems will “ensure that the carrier can employ the full range of China’s carrier-capable aircraft, including the airborne early warning control system KJ-600, the J-35 fifth-generation stealth and the fully loaded, fourth-generation J-15T fighter/attack aircraft,” he explains.
“It is too early to tell whether the PLA Navy intends to build manned or unmanned tanker aircraft,” Mr. Schuster writes, referring to the Chinese Communist Party’s naval branch, called the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
“Despite lacking the strategic operating range and full combat capabilities of its American counterparts, Fujian adds greatly to the PLA Navy’s naval power within and along the First Island Chain,” he writes. “It marks the latest step in Beijing’s naval challenge to American sea power. Attention must now shift to China’s reportedly more capable Type 004 aircraft carrier, which is expected to be launched within the next two years.”
Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Damon Friedman writes in a Times op-ed that “despite investing $17 billion to increase veterans’ access to mental health care and an additional $583 million for suicide prevention outreach programs, the Department of Veterans Affairs continues to fall short in addressing the veteran suicide crisis for one simple reason: Its well-funded programs neglect to instill soul-level purpose and meaning after military service.
“In its budget submission to Congress,” writes Mr. Friedman, “the VA calls ‘on all partners, stakeholders, and communities to help us reach Veterans and reduce Veteran suicide. … We cannot win this fight alone.’
“I wholeheartedly agree with the VA’s analysis that ‘addressing suicide requires a comprehensive approach that focuses on community and clinical intervention,’” he writes. “Faith-based solutions are uniquely suited to address the deeper root issues of combat trauma. It’s time for the government to partner with the faith-based veteran service community.”
• Nov. 11 — Free Showing of the Award-winning Documentary ‘Honor in the Air: Remembering Captain Scott Alwin and the 68th Assault Helicopter Company,’ Washington Policy Institute
• Nov. 13 — The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: Anthony Vinci on Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics and the Future of Espionage, Hudson Institute
Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts.
