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Threat Status for Friday, October 31, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

President Trump’s surprise directive to the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing alarmed watchdogs and added a potentially volatile new dynamic to America’s foreign policy.

… Mr. Trump said it’s necessary “because of other countries’ testing programs.” No country has tested a nuclear weapon since North Korea in 2017. But Russia reportedly used its nuclear-capable 9M729 missile in recent attacks against Ukraine, and that may have contributed to Mr. Trump’s decision. Moscow also tested a new atomic-powered, nuclear-capable underwater drone.

… The FBI says it foiled a potential terrorist attack in Michigan.

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth raised “serious concerns” about Chinese military activities in the Pacific during his first face-to-face meeting with Adm. Dong Jun, the Chinese defense minister.

… New polling shows a strong majority of Republican voters favor the sale of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

… Iran is searching for allies to help it evade Western economic sanctions.

… King Charles III stripped his brother Andrew of all titles and honors. 

… And the U.S. and India signed a landmark defense agreement on Friday.

Exclusive: GOP lawmakers fear new Pentagon policy cuts off Congress from military

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth looks at Bryn MacDonnell, left, acting chief financial officer at the Department of Defense, as he fields questions on the Pentagon budget from the House Armed Services Committee, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, June 12, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) **FILE**

There’s deep concern on Capitol Hill that crucial functions — authorizing U.S. military action abroad, overseeing complex programs across the Defense Department and getting quick answers to questions as lawmakers draft the nearly $1 trillion budget of the armed forces — are about to get a lot harder.

The Washington Times spoke with 13 members of the Senate Armed Services Committee and multiple members of the House Armed Services Committee about a Pentagon policy shift to funnel most communication with Congress through the Office of Legislative Affairs under Mr. Hegseth. That means that senior military officers, all the way up to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, can’t talk directly with lawmakers without first coordinating with Mr. Hegseth’s office.

That’s a significant change from past practice, in which relevant congressional committees communicated freely and frequently with the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force and combatant commands such as Southern Command, Central Command and Cyber Command.

Some Republicans say the new policy could restrict congressional committees’ ability to oversee the military. And they worry that the Office of Legislative Affairs isn’t capable of handling the massive volume of inquiries it’s about to get from Congress.

Podcast exclusive: Are the Trump administration's drug boat strikes legal?

President Trump said Friday, Sept. 19, 2025, that the U.S. military had carried out its third fatal strike against an alleged drug smuggling vessel this month. Trump said in a social media post that the strike killed three and was carried out against a vessel “affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization conducting narcotrafficking in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility.” Since then, the U.S. military has issued more strikes. (Screen grab of Truth Social video) ** FILE **

The Trump administration’s strikes on suspected drug-trafficking boats might be legal, scholars say, but the administration hasn’t offered a clear and convincing legal case for its targeting of the boats off the coasts of the Americas.

On the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast, Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Charlie Dunlap, the executive director of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security at Duke University Law School, delves into the complex legal questions swirling around those strikes and the administration’s argument that the U.S. is engaged in armed conflict with drug cartels.

Mr. Dunlap explains that such an argument becomes complicated when the enemies in question aren’t attacking the U.S. with traditional weapons but are instead moving drugs into the country.

“International law requires that there be sufficient organization of these non-state actors, as well as a certain intensity of the conflict, and here’s where we get into some pretty complicated legal thoughts,” he said. “Is this an armed conflict? I think a case could be made … that drugs are in essence an arm.

“They certainly are intending to harm people, especially with cocaine, they want to create addicts,” Mr. Dunlap said of the drug cartels allegedly targeted by the U.S. strikes.

Hegseth says new defense strategy to keep focus on China

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks to U.S. troops during a joint press conference with Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi in Tokyo on Oct. 29, 2025. (Bill Gertz/The Washington Times)

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz is traveling with Mr. Hegseth this week in Asia and has more from his interview with the Pentagon chief. Mr. Hegseth pushed back on the narrative that the Trump administration’s forthcoming National Defense Strategy will downplay the threat posed by communist China in favor of prioritizing homeland defense and a focus on the Western Hemisphere.

Mr. Hegseth called that a “wrong characterization” of the document and said the Trump administration is fully committed to both goals: Deterring an increasingly aggressive and capable China while also focusing on our own hemisphere. 

On China, Mr. Hegseth said the U.S. has to remain vigilant and prepared for a future confrontation by increasing training and working together with allied militaries in the region. The goal is to “ensure that China understands that we have a credible deterrent,” he said.

Threat Status also has more details on Mr. Hegseth’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart.

Inside Turkey's landmark Eurofighter deal

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer review an honor guard during a welcome ceremony prior their meeting at the presidential palace, in Ankara, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (Ugur Yildirim/Dia Photo via AP)

Correspondent Jacob Wirtschafter has an in-depth dispatch from Istanbul about Turkey’s $10.7 billion agreement, finalized this week, to buy 20 British-built Eurofighter Typhoons. It’s a deal that serves both nations: For Turkey, the jets fill an urgent capability gap as its aging F-16s approach retirement; for Britain, the sale sustains 20,000 jobs and restores a measure of industrial prestige.

But there are other dynamics at play here, and the deal represents much more than just a weapons purchase. It’s a recalibration of Ankara’s place in Western defense, an assertion of independence from Washington and a signal that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intends to remain indispensable to NATO.

Still, some analysts cast the Eurofighter Typhoons as a consolation prize for Turkey and for Mr. Erdoğan specifically. Turkey has long sought U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets and for a period was a key partner in the Pentagon’s F-35 program. But Ankara was expelled from the program in 2019 after it purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system.

Opinion: How loyal are Xi's generals?

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, meets with representatives of military personnel stationed in Urumqi in northwestern China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP) ** FILE **

Could deep disagreements over Taiwan erode the trust between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his top military commanders? Threat Status contributor Joseph R. DeTrani examines that question in a new piece for The Times, zeroing in on the recent purges of senior military officials inside the People’s Liberation Army.

Mr. DeTrani argues that internal disputes over the island democracy of Taiwan, and whether China should use military force against it, could be fueling major dissension in Beijing.

“Given the importance of Taiwan to Mr. Xi and the Communist Party, a disagreement with senior military officials over Taiwan could develop into an issue that affects the inner workings of the party,” says Mr. DeTrani, former associate director of national intelligence and former member of the Senior Intelligence Service of the CIA. “Mr. Xi has consistently refused to renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and continues to conduct military exercises near Taiwan.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Oct. 31-Nov. 2 — International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue 2025, International Institute for Strategic Studies

• Nov. 3 — China’s Economic Priorities: The Fourth Plenum in Review, Brookings Institution

• Nov. 3 — Rep. Rich McCormick on Securing American AI Leadership, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 3 — Israel 2040: Benny Gantz’s Vision for Security and Cooperation, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Nov. 4 — Drones and Deterrence: Building Taiwan’s Asymmetric Capabilities, Center for a New American Security

• Nov. 5 — Containment Redux: Persian Gulf War Lessons from Iraq for U.S. Strategy Toward Iran, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Nov. 11 — Free showing of the award-winning documentary “Honor in the Air: Remembering Captain Scott Alwin and the 68th Assault Helicopter Company,” Washington Policy Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.