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Threat Status for Monday, October 20, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

A key vice president at Raytheon RTX tells Threat Status a major challenge for the U.S. military is how to integrate advanced new tech with allies around the world.

… The U.S. Embassy in Trinidad and Tobago says Americans should avoid government buildings on the twin-island nation just off the coast of Venezuela.

… Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are in Israel trying to salvage the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

… The Long War Journal has an in-depth look at Israel’s support for anti-Hamas militias in Gaza.

… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists Russia “is not winning” but says U.S.-provided long-range strike capabilities — such as Tomahawks — are crucial.

… Ukrainian drones hit a major natural gas plant in southern Russia over the weekend.

… Iran is poised to evade reimposed U.N. sanctions and use revenue from oil sales through China to purchase weapons and defensive technologies from Russia.

… And acting U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Joseph Yun is leaving his post and will likely be replaced by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kevin Kim ahead of Mr. Trump’s visit to Seoul at the end of October.

Witkoff and Kushner in Israel to try to salvage ceasefire

People gather to welcome freed Israeli hostage, Elkana Bohbot, who was recently released from Hamas captivity in Gaza, as he returns home from the hospital to Mevaseret Zion, Israel, Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner are in Israel Monday to try to save the tenuous Gaza ceasefire, which teetered over the weekend after Hamas terrorists killed two Israeli soldiers and Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes on dozens of targets across the Palestinian enclave.

Mr. Trump told reporters Sunday he thinks the violence in Gaza since the ceasefire went into effect a week ago might be the fault of “rebels” within Hamas’ ranks, rather than its leadership. Since the ceasefire began, Hamas security forces have returned to the streets, clashing with armed groups, including some backed by Israel.

Israel’s military said Sunday that militants had fired at troops in areas of Rafah city that are Israeli-controlled according to ceasefire lines. Mr. Kushner, meanwhile, told CBS’ 60 Minutes in an interview that aired over the weekend that the success or failure of the deal hinges on Israel and the international community creating a viable alternative to Hamas. “If they are successful, Hamas will fail,” Mr. Kushner said, “and Gaza will not be a threat to Israel in the future.”

China's senior military leaders purged ahead of major meeting in Beijing

Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a screen as Type 99A2 Chinese battle tanks take part in a parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on Sept. 3, 2015. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a closed-door meeting of his ruling Communist Party Monday, days after the party announced the ouster of nine senior military leaders in a large-scale purge within the uppermost ranks of the People’s Liberation Army.

The purge included one of the PLA’s most senior generals, He Weidong. Several of the nine ousted officers had been identified as under investigation for alleged crimes and corruption. Several were also proteges of Mr. Xi, raising speculation about a power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party.

Mr. Xi delivered a speech before presiding over Monday’s CCP meeting. State media said he focused on a five-year plan for national economic and social development, but did not provide further details. The developments come amid uncertainty in China over a persistently sluggish economy, foreign restrictions on its access to advanced technologies and high U.S. tariffs.

Exclusive video: Breaking down U.S.-China competition on biotech, rare earths, shipbuilding

National Security Editor Guy Taylor sits down with Sen. Todd Young, Indiana Republican, who has emerged in recent years as a leader on the most nuanced aspects of U.S.-China competition.

Chinese restrictions on rare earth mineral exports could have detrimental effects on the U.S. defense industry, said Sen. Todd Young, Indiana Republican and a leader on nuanced policy moves at the center of U.S.-China great power competition on a range of fronts, including rare earths, biotechnology, microchips and shipbuilding.

“This competition is currently shaping our lives in fundamental ways,” he said in a Threat Status Influencers exclusive video interview. “It is poised to shape our children’s lives in even more fundamental ways, economically, in terms of our national security and every other facet of life.”

Rare earths are critical to defense products such as advanced artificial intelligence semiconductors and parts of the newest U.S. stealth bombers. China currently controls 80% of the world’s reserves of 17 rare earth metals. “They have vast stores … that they provide into the American market,” said Mr. Young. “These are key inputs as we electrify our economy. And they’re also key inputs to other, important, manufactured goods like defense articles. We literally cannot produce our defense goods without access to rare earth minerals.”

Podcast: Are the Pentagon, defense companies leaving U.S. allies behind?

The Pentagon and Potomac River. Are the Pentagon, defense companies leaving U.S. allies behind? File photo: xbrchx via Shutterstock.

The challenge for the U.S. military of integrating advanced new weapons technology systems with key allies around the world is complex, but essential for American forces going forward, said Joe DeAntona, vice president for requirements and capabilities, land and air defense, at Raytheon RTX.

Mr. DeAntona sat down for an exclusive interview with the Threat Status weekly podcast at the recent Association of the U.S. Army conference in Washington. “Building partner capacity is a cornerstone of our national defense and our national security strategy,” he told the podcast. “As we revolutionize our army, we should do so with a keen eye that we are not leaving our partners behind. How do we bring them along? In the perfect world, they would just do what we’re doing right?”

The catch, Mr. DeAntona said, is that allied armies are sometimes designed to do different things than the U.S. military. The challenge, he said, is to “build flexibility in our revolution such that we can bring them along with us — bring their resources along with us, but also respect and acknowledge that they may not be exactly like us.”

Is the U.S. about to launch a covert invasion of Venezuela?

The country's coat of arms is displayed on the facade of a government building in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, Aug. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ash Allen, File)

A warning over the weekend from the U.S. Embassy in Trinidad and Tobago cited a “heightened state of alert” on the twin-island nation situated less than seven miles off the coast of Venezuela. The alert coincides with rising U.S.-Venezuela tension and a string of American military strikes in Caribbean waters targeting alleged drug cartel boats off the Venezuelan coastline.

In addition to stopping the flow of drugs to U.S. shores, the strikes are designed to put pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who the Trump administration accuses of facilitating drug trafficking throughout the Western Hemisphere.

Mr. Trump revealed last week that he has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela. He also said he’s weighing possible ground missions inside the country. Such missions could target drug cartels operating in the country but also could extend to the Maduro government itself in what could become a U.S.-led regime change operation.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Oct. 21 — Implications of the Military Junta’s Internal Shifts on Civil-Military Relations in Myanmar, Stimson Center

• Oct. 21 — The U.S. Enduring Human Presence in Orbit: Reflecting on the Future and Past 25 Years, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Oct. 22 — Europe’s Energy Transition: From Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine to Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’ Agenda, Brookings Institution

• Oct. 23 — The U.S. in the South Caucasus: Mapping New Strategic Opportunities, Hudson Institute

• Oct. 28 — How America Failed to Disarm North Korea: Implications for the Future, Stimson Center

• Oct. 30 — How Long Can Russia’s Weakening Economy Support Putin’s War on Ukraine? Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.