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Threat Status for Friday, October 10, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Air Force Gen. Kenneth F. Wilsbach says China’s nuclear warhead arsenal will hit 1,500 in five years.

… Anduril founder Palmer Luckey says the disruptor defense tech firm is “kind of a gun store” for U.S. allies and partners around the world.

… Venezuelan opposition activist María Corina Machado has won the Nobel Peace Prize.

… Ms. Machado received it amid speculation that President Trump might win following this week’s approval of the first stage of his Gaza ceasefire plan.

… The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is taking shape amid jubilation on both sides, although thorny questions remain.

… The Trump administration this week ramped up sanctions targeting Iranian oil being bought by China.

… Another Russian drone and missile attack hit Ukraine’s energy grid Friday morning, the latest in Moscow’s growing campaign to deprive Ukrainian civilians of heat and electricity ahead of winter.

… And the NBA and China are trying to kiss and make up six years after a team executive’s pro-Hong Kong democracy post outraged Beijing.

China’s nuclear warhead arsenal to hit 1,500 in five years

The DF-5C liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles are included in a military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender, held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong) ** FILE **

Air Force Gen. Kenneth F. Wilsbach disclosed that the Pentagon now expects China’s arsenal of nuclear warheads to reach 1,500 by 2030, as he warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Chinese nuclear and missile threat is growing.

The new estimate for future Chinese warhead growth came in answers to questions posed by committee members made public during a nomination hearing this week. 

The Chinese “nuclear modernization and expansion will increase its ability to target our homeland with longer-range systems that can reach the continental United States, a primary reason to invest in Golden Dome,” said the four-star general, who has headed the Air Force in the Indo-Pacific region and the Air Combat Command.

Gen. Wilsbach said China has increased its nuclear arsenal from about 300 warheads in 2020 to 600 today, “with projections of 1,500 by 2030.” That amount would give Beijing a comparable arsenal to that of the United States and Russia, each of which is estimated to have about 1,700 deployed warheads.

Palmer Luckey: Anduril kind of a 'gun store' for U.S. allies, partners worldwide

Lattice Mission Autonomy software by Anduril is demonstrated at the Air & Space Forces Association Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023, in Oxon Hill, Md. Anduril and competitor Shield AI are each backed by hundreds of millions in venture capital funding. Both have a software-first approach and have obtained uncrewed drones in acquisitions or partnered with aircraft makers. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The 33-year-old founder of Anduril, Palmer Luckey, said this week that he sees his defense company “as kind of the gun store of our allies and partners around the world.”

He offered the comment in Washington, where he capitalized on his boyish charm and pop culture references at an event with the newly minted editor-in-chief of CBS News, Bari Weiss. Threat Status’ new Natsec-Tech lead reporter John T. Seward was there, reporting on how Mr. Luckey also opined on the growing number of Silicon Valley tech titans, including Mark Zuckerberg, who are open to working with the Trump administration.

Mr. Luckey, an early Trump supporter, is still seen as an outlier by many of his liberal Silicon Valley peers. But he says a shift is afoot from just a few years ago, when it seemed he and fellow billionaire Peter Thiel were the only Silicon Valley executives that he knew were backing Mr. Trump.

With his ties to the Trump administration and his outspoken willingness to build what he calls “killer robots,” Mr. Luckey has cultivated a reputation as a brilliant, creative disruptor. In 2012 at the ripe age of 20, he created the Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset. Two years later, he sold his company and the technology to Facebook for an undisclosed multibillion-dollar figure.

Trump, Finnish president close deal on icebreakers

President Donald Trump and Finland's President Alexander Stubb meet in the Oval Office at the White House, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Mr. Trump met with Finnish President Alexander Stubb Thursday at the White House to sign off on an agreement for the U.S. Coast Guard to buy up to four icebreaker ships from Finnish shipyards. The ships are crucial for the U.S. strategic posture toward Russia in the Arctic Ocean.

Mr. Trump said Finland’s shipbuilders “have almost a monopoly on ice breakers.” Mr. Stubbs noted that Finland builds 60% of the world’s icebreakers and designs 80% of the ships built throughout the world. The Finnish president pointed out that Russia has 40 of the ships.

The U.S. Coast Guard is responsible for the U.S. military’s icebreaker operations and is in dire need of additional vessels to compete with Russia and China in the Arctic. Its newest ice breaker, USCGC Storis, is a former supply and towing vessel for the oil industry. The acquisition expands the current Coast Guard fleet of Arctic icebreakers to three.

OFAC targets 'key elements' of Iran’s shadowy oil export network

This March 16, 2019, file photo shows a natural gas refinery at the South Pars gas field on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf in Asaluyeh, Iran. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) **FILE**

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control ramped up its fight against Iranian oil profits this week with a slew of new sanctions targeting 50 companies, individuals and vessels that facilitate the sale of Iranian liquefied petroleum gas.

The new punishment targets a network that Treasury says is responsible for transporting millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil via shadow fleet vessels and Chinese-based oil terminals and refineries. Washington Times reporter Vaughn Cockayne writes that the new sanctions follow three other rounds of restrictions from earlier this year targeting Chinese-based organizations that buy Iranian oil.

Tehran’s oil sales to allies, primarily China, have been a crucial revenue source for the regime despite Western economic sanctions. OFAC singled out China-based oil refinery Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, which it says has purchased millions of barrels of Iranian oil since 2023.

Is Jong-un North Korea’s most successful Kim?

This photo provided by the North Korean government, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaking during a parliament session at the Supreme People’s Assembly, which was held on Sept. 20-21, 2025 in Pyongyang, North Korea. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

It’s good to be Kim, and as dictators go, Kim Jong-un is arguably sitting prettier today than either his father Kim Jong-il or grandfather Kim Il-sung ever did. The Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon offers a deep dive on the North Korean dictator, reporting from the region as Mr. Kim oversees celebrations in Pyongyang Friday of the 80th anniversary of the founding of his regime’s Korean Workers’ Party.

Having succeeded his father after his death in 2011, King Jong-un is the third Kim to rule North Korea. He is jeered globally for his portliness, his tailoring and the over-the-top adulation he commands among his populace. However, he has been an effective leader. VIP guests at Friday’s celebrations in the North Korean capital were slated to include officials from China, Laos, Russia, Vietnam and elsewhere.

During 14 years in power, Mr. Kim has ruthlessly crushed dissent. Globally, he has proved a savvy player and risk manager, sitting down with the U.S. and earning new support from Russia and China. “KJU is the most successful [‘supreme leader’] when it comes to enhancing his impoverished nation’s international status,” says Lee Sung-yoon, author of a biography of Mr. Kim’s sister Kim Yo-jong. “He has elevated his nation’s international status from an endlessly mockable pariah state to a de facto member of the ‘International Tyrannical Triumvirate.’” 

Threat Status Events Radar

Oct. 10 — Should the United States Extend New START Limits? Center for Strategic & International Studies

Oct. 13-15 — AUSA 2025 Annual Meeting & Exposition in Washington, Association of the U.S. Army (AUSA)

Oct. 15 — Vanguard of Manufacturing: Fortifying U.S. National Security, Hudson Institute

Oct. 20 — Are Geopolitics Leading to Fragmentation of the International Financial System? Brookings Institution

Oct. 21-22 — Missile Defense Agency Small Business Conference, Tennessee Valley Chapter of the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA)

Oct. 22 — Europe’s Energy Transition: From Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine to Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’ Agenda, Brookings Institution

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