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Threat Status for Tuesday, September 16, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

A Philippine coast guard vessel allegedly rammed a Chinese ship Tuesday in a fresh clash, which one retired U.S. admiral calls “the most dangerous conflict nobody is talking about.”

… United Against Nuclear Iran has written a letter to Marriott International expressing concern that senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the Ritz-Carlton in Doha, Qatar.

… A U.N. Human Rights Council team has officially accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.

… Israel, which began a new ground offensive in Gaza City on Tuesday, says the U.N. finding is based on Hamas propaganda.

… Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who just wrapped up meetings with Israeli leaders, describes Hamas as “barbarians” and “animals.”

… Top NATO officials at the alliance’s outpost in the U.S. warn in exclusive interviews with Threat Status that much of Russia’s military might remains intact despite losses in the Ukraine war.

… The White House has not revealed details of the deal President Trump said he reached with China over TikTok.

Inside the expanding U.S. war on ‘narco-terrorists’ off Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro points at a map of the Americas during a press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Sept 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jesus Vargas)

Mr. Trump posted video footage Monday that he said shows the latest U.S. military strike that killed three “narco-terrorists” transporting drugs through international waters. The president indicated further strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats are coming and told traffickers in an all-caps warning that “we are hunting you.” The Pentagon did not immediately release details about the mission.

Monday’s strike was the second in as many weeks against alleged drug-carrying speedboats in U.S. Southern Command’s area of operation. U.S. officials have said the first strike, on Sept. 2, killed 11 members of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuela-based criminal gang that the Trump administration has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Mr. Trump did not say whether the people targeted on Monday were also affiliated with that group.

The strike is sure to spark fresh criticism from lawmakers who say the administration’s approach could put American troops in harm’s way and from scholars, analysts and members of Congress who question the underlying legal justification for such operations. It will also stoke more tension with Venezuela. Before Mr. Trump revealed the latest strike, Mr. Rubio characterized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as the illegitimate leader of a narco-state.

Fresh China-Philippines clash rocks South China Sea

A Chinese military helicopter flies close to a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic (BFAR) aircraft above Scarborough shoal on Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Joeal Calupitan, File)

A Philippine coast guard vessel allegedly rammed a Chinese ship Tuesday in a confrontation over the disputed Scarborough Shoal, the latest in a fast-moving series of developments involving Beijing, Manila and Washington. 

After Chinese forces were outmaneuvered by their Philippine counterparts in an earlier clash in August, Beijing unilaterally announced last week that the shoal was now a China-protected and off-limits “nature reserve.” U.S. officials shot back by joining Philippine and Japanese drills in the region on Saturday.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports from the region that the events highlight the risks implicit in China-Philippines skirmishes west of the archipelagic nation, which one retired U.S. admiral calls “the most dangerous conflict nobody is talking about.”

Exclusive: NATO eyes the threat of Russian attacks against North America

In this image made from video released by the Russian Presidential Press Service, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a visit to military headquarters in the Kursk region of Russia. (Russian Presidential Press Service via AP)

Much of Moscow’s military might remains intact despite its ongoing, grueling war with Ukraine, according to key NATO officials, who tell Threat Status they are in a constant state of intense planning and preparation in the event that the Russian threat could reach directly into North America.

Key NATO officials spoke with National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang in a round of exclusive interviews at the alliance’s Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Virginia, detailing how member nations are working to establish even greater interoperability with an eye toward the complex, multi-domain threats posed by Russia.

Military leaders from Britain, Finland and France said NATO is not a one-way street in which the U.S. provides significant military aid and security guarantees for Europe with nothing in return. They say the alliance is ready and willing to aid the U.S. in the event of direct attacks, including potential long-range missile strikes from Russia and Moscow’s continued use of influence operations, cyberattacks and other instances of irregular warfare.

Sen. Rand Paul blocking Trump’s nominee for key Middle East post

The headquarters of the Department of State is seen, June 27, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Joel Rayburn, Mr. Trump’s pick for assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, is having his nomination held up by Sen. Rand Paul and will not be voted on Wednesday as part of a group of high-ranking nominees, a person familiar with the matter tells Threat Status.

Spokespeople for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Mr. Paul did not respond to email requests for comment. Mr. Paul, a libertarian, has been a critic of U.S. support for Israel in its war against Hamas. During a confirmation hearing in May, the Kentucky Republican confronted Mr. Rayburn about his past relationship with former State Department envoy James Jeffries, who revealed in 2020 that he routinely misled senior government officials about the number of U.S. troops in Syria.

The effort to hide troop numbers was related to bureaucratic opposition to Mr. Trump’s decision to abruptly withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria in 2018. Mr. Rayburn testified that he was a close colleague of Mr. Jeffries but had no role in any deception by the former envoy.

Opinion: Beijing parade was a military showcase and a confession of vulnerabilities

Military personnel take part in a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

The message behind China’s World War II commemoration parade on Sept. 3 “was clear: China’s military modernization is advancing rapidly, and Beijing intends to project confidence in its rise as a global power,” writes Miles Yu, a Threat Status opinion contributor and director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute.

“Yet the display revealed as much about the PLA’s weaknesses as it did about its strengths,” writes Mr. Yu, referring to the People’s Liberation Army, China’s military. He notes that during “the week leading up to the parade, China Government Procurement Weekly announced the termination of licenses for nearly 200 weapons assessment experts for fraud, along with licenses for 116 key defense suppliers, many of them state-owned, for substandard or fraudulent products.

“The fact that Beijing felt compelled to act days before the military extravaganza underscores how deeply corruption undermines procurement, particularly in the Rocket Force and the General Armament Department,” he writes. “Such systemic weaknesses call into question the reliability of the very weapons showcased on Sept. 3.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Sept. 16-17 — Defense Tech Valley International Investment Summit, Ukraine

• Sept. 17 — New Visions for Grand Strategy, Stimson Center

• Sept. 18 — Iran Since the 12-Day War, Middle East Institute

• Sept. 20-21 — AFA National Convention 2025, Air & Space Forces Association

• Sept. 22-23 — Cyber Defense Summit 25, Mandiant & Google Threat Intelligence

• Sept. 23-25 — National Cyber Summit

• Sept. 23-27 and Sept. 29 — U.N. General Assembly 2025: General Debate, United Nations

• Sept. 25 — Building the Space Force We Need, and the Intelligence to Support It, Intelligence Studies Project

• Sept. 25 — Counterforce in Contemporary U.S. Nuclear Strategy, Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.