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Threat Status for Monday, August 25, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Sources tell Threat Status there is unease in some national security circles that President Trump’s reluctance to sanction Russian oil amounts to a missed opportunity to exert leverage at a critical moment in the push to end the Ukraine war.

… Vice President J.D. Vance says the prospect of new sanctions on Moscow remains on the table.

… South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces a daunting task in meeting Mr. Trump today to press for clarity on the administration’s North Korea policy and the future of the Seoul-Washington security alliance.

… North Korea test-fired two new air-defense missiles on Sunday, flexing its muscles in the face of annual South Korea-U.S. joint military drills that are underway.

… The Chinese Communist Party has reportedly mobilized social clubs in New York City to defeat American political candidates who challenge the regime in Beijing.

… Israeli defense companies are getting banned from one of the Netherlands’ most popular defense showcases in November.

… Mr. Trump says Intel, a massive but struggling chip manufacturer, has agreed to give the U.S. government a 10% equity stake in the company in return for the funding promised under President Biden.

… And questions are swirling over who else may have their security clearances revoked by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Will Trump increase sanctions on Russian oil?

An oil tanker is moored at the Sheskharis complex, part of Chernomortransneft JSC, a subsidiary of Transneft PJSC, in Novorossiysk, Russia, on Oct. 11, 2022. (AP Photo, File)

Sources tell Threat Status there is unease in some U.S. national security circles that Mr. Trump’s reluctance to increase sanctions on Russia amounts to a missed opportunity to exert leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin in the administration’s push for an end to the Ukraine war. Mr. Vance said over the weekend that the administration still “has a lot of cards left to play” and new sanctions on Russia’s lucrative oil industry still remain on the table.

Deep divisions over the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region are standing in the way of a peace deal. Russian officials said over the weekend that Ukraine has a right to exist, but only if it agrees to “let people go” from the Donbas region, which Russian forces have occupied since invading Ukraine.

Mr. Trump wrote in a letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — it was made public Sunday — that any end-of-war agreement must protect Ukraine’s “sovereignty.” European Union leaders, meanwhile, say the West would be walking into a trap if it supports ceding any Ukrainian land to Moscow. Finding a way to bridge those seemingly irreconcilable positions looks to be the only way Mr. Trump can achieve his goal of ending the war.

China expands focus on Tibet, Pakistan and India

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with representatives of military personnel stationed in Lhasa in western China's Tibet Autonomous Region on Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)

Beijing has deployed a high-visibility charm offensive across Tibet, India and Pakistan, highlighting the region’s importance while leveraging perceived American diplomatic missteps. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Tibet for two days this month, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi toured New Delhi and Islamabad.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon, offers a deep dive examining two core issues simmering in the background of the Chinese visits. One is an ongoing clash between Tibet’s Dalai Lama and Beijing over his succession. The clash is casting a harsh light on China’s assimilation of Tibet and related tensions. The other is the dire state of New Delhi-Washington ties, a situation that analysts say offered Beijing the opportunity to reset long-troubled Sino-Indian relations.

India has been angered by Washington’s mediation of the recent India-Pakistan conflict; by Mr. Trump’s welcome of a Pakistani military delegation to the White House; and by Mr. Trump’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods — the region’s highest rate. “Given the tensions between the U.S. and India, and unmet expectations in India, China may have smelled blood,” says Rob York, director of regional affairs at the Pacific Forum, a nonprofit foreign policy research institute.

Inside Iran's first major military exercises since end of June war

Missiles are carried on a truck as an Iranian army band leader conducts the music band during Army Day parade at a military base in northern Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, April 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

Iran has begun holding major military exercises for the first time since the end of the Islamic republic’s 12-day war with Israel. Iranian naval vessels successfully struck targets in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman with cruise missiles in drills last week.

The exercises, dubbed “Sustainable Power 1404,” included short-range Nasir missiles, medium-range Qader missiles and long-range Qadir missiles, according to state-affiliated media. The Nasir and Qadir missiles were fired from the IRIS Genaveh missile launching frigate and the IRIS Sabalan destroyer, while Qader missiles were fired from coastal platforms.

Iran’s navy saw little combat during the war with Israel in June and remains the most intact service in the Islamic republic’s military. Many of Iran’s top military leaders were killed during the war via precision missile strikes by Israeli forces. Iran’s missile defense capabilities were also severely weakened.

Opinion: U.S. pivot in Iraq offers lesson for Israel in Gaza

Palestine, Hamas and Israel illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “desperately needs a new and more comprehensive strategy,” writes Daniel N. Hoffman, who asserts that he and his senior national security officials “should start by reacquainting themselves with the lessons the U.S. learned from Iraq,” especially those pertaining to “the concept of counterinsurgency.”

“Israel should devise and implement its own robust counterinsurgency strategy that would seek to drive a wedge between Hamas terrorists and the civilian population,” writes Mr. Hoffman, a retired CIA clandestine services officer and opinion contributor to Threat Status.

“It should develop closer coordination with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, and outline a realistic plan that includes empowering reconcilable Palestinian leaders and factions for Gaza’s economic reconstruction and political future,” he writes. “Greater international support for Israel’s conduct of the war could translate into much-needed financial, military and diplomatic support.”

Opinion: With Russia, Trump takes a page from the Reagan playbook

President Ronald Reagan and the Cold War with Russia illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Mr. Trump took a “page out of the Reagan playbook by ordering strategic airstrikes to neutralize the nuclear threat in Iran without dragging us into a war or conflict,” writes Scott Walker, a former Wisconsin governor and columnist for The Washington Times, who adds that the president now appears “eager to end the war in Europe.”

“I was on CNN when word came out about the summit in Alaska. The chattering class said it was too quick and required much more planning by bureaucrats,” writes Mr. Walker. “These were the same types of elitists who mocked Reagan when he walked out on Gorbachev in Reykjavik, who denounced Reagan when he called the Soviet Union the Evil Empire, who ridiculed his call to ‘tear down this wall!’”

“But it worked,” Mr. Walker writes. “Despite the cries from the intelligentsia, peace through strength works. To his credit, Mr. Trump is trying to make it work again.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Aug. 26 — The Future of Naval Aviation: A Conversation with Vice Adm. Daniel L. Cheever and Lt. Gen. Bradford J. Gering, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Aug. 26 — Reexamining the U.S.-South Africa Relationship, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Aug. 27 — Advancing America’s Quantum Leadership with Next-Generation Sensors, Center for a New American Security

• Aug. 28 — AI Safety Governance in Southeast Asia, Brookings Institution

• Sept. 2 — Envisioning the Threat to Taiwan: A Cross-strait and Beyond Seminar, Atlantic Council

• Sept. 4 — The Digital Front Line: Building a Cyber-Resilient Taiwan, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.