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Threat Status for Friday, August 22, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

The European Union’s top diplomat warned against walking into the “trap” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has set by allowing Moscow to keep Ukrainian territory, a move that would undoubtedly strengthen the Russian military.

… The comments from the EU’s Kaja Kallas suggest that some powerful stakeholders in Europe won’t endorse a land-for-peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, even if it’s backed by the Trump administration. 

… Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says there is no meeting planned between Mr. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

… The FBI searched the home of former National Security Adviser John R. Bolton as part of a classified documents investigation. 

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized arms for National Guard troops stationed in D.C.

… A key global authority on food crises says the Gaza Strip is in the midst of a famine

… Israeli defense companies will be banned from a major defense expo in the Netherlands.

… U.S. Central Command says American forces killed a senior Islamic State member and key financier who planned attacks in Syria and Iraq. 

… The Trump administration revoked the security clearances of former White House National Security Council intelligence chief Maher Bitar. 

… And former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif writes that any U.S.-Iran diplomatic deal may need to include a “non-aggression pact” between the two nations. 

Russia, China collaborating on Taiwan attack plan

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin observe a parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's World War II defeat, from Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, on Sept. 3, 2015. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz breaks down this deeply troubling revelation: China is working with Moscow to develop an automated command-and-control system for landing operations, such as a future invasion of Taiwan.

The news comes from documents obtained by the European hacker group BlackMoon and is related to a joint Russian-Chinese project known as “Sword 208.” The documents reveal work on the automated communications system for controlling airborne units for China’s People’s Liberation Army. And the main goal of the project is to prepare PLA paratroopers for an attack on Taiwan.

Threat Status is always looking for real, tangible examples of diplomatic, intelligence, military and economic cooperation between members of the “Axis of Authoritarians”: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. This development would seem to be one of the clearest examples yet of direct cooperation between the Russian and Chinese militaries for a kinetic military operation.

Podcast exclusive: Pentagon too reliant on internet, networks, satellites?

U.S. military take part in a joint drill with Panamanian troops at the Panama Canal during the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Port of Rodman in West Panama, Tuesday, April 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

There’s a growing movement inside the defense industry to build self-contained, compartmentalized systems that can function without being connected to outside networks and even without internet access at all. It’s important, experts say, because the American military’s reliance on the internet creates new targets — such as satellites in orbit — for adversaries to hit.

On the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast, Tyler Saltsman, the founder and CEO of the company EdgeRunner AI, explores the issue in an in-depth conversation. He explains how his company’s product, an AI assistant for U.S. troops that lives entirely on a phone or laptop and can fully function with no internet access, is an example of the kind of capability the Pentagon should pursue.

India may be tilting toward China

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, shakes hand with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, left, in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, Aug.19, 2025. (Indian Prime Minister's Office via AP)

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon poses this high-stakes question in his latest piece from the region: Is the world’s most powerful democracy about to lose the world’s most populous democracy?

The answer is that it could be. Mr. Salmon walks through how, over the span of just the past few days, India has reset deeply its troubled relationship with China even as its relations with the United States are fraying.

The reason for those fraying U.S.-India ties, at least according to some Indian media, is President Trump. India objected to the visit of the Pakistani army chief of staff to the White House after an aerial border conflict in May between the two nations. And India has fumed about U.S. tariffs and Mr. Trump’s threat of sanctions on Indian purchases of Russian oil.

Those tensions seem to have opened the door for a new dawn of India-China relations at a crucial geopolitical moment. 

Land for peace means a stronger Russian military

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a working meeting to discuss the results of the Russia-US summit in Alaska at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

It’s the harsh reality of any peace deal that cedes all or part of Ukraine’s Donbas region to Russia: The Russian military would come out stronger and more capable of future strikes on Ukraine or other eastern European nations.

Military insiders and former Pentagon officials say that’s why the Ukrainian military is privately urging Mr. Zelenskyy to oppose any such deal. They understand that Russian control over the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, which make up the Donbas, would lead to permanent Russian military bases in the region, greater Russian naval control over the Black Sea, and the permanent loss of Ukraine’s most heavily fortified defensive positions. 

And the Russians aren’t even waiting for a peace deal. There were new signs this week that Russian forces are already turning Donetsk’s airport into a military hub and converting abandoned Azov Sea resorts into military barracks. 

Threat Status correspondent Guillaume Ptak also has a fresh dispatch from Kyiv about how the Trump administration’s peace push is playing inside Ukraine.

Opinion: Don't force Ukraine to swallow a poison pill

Amerca's deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The prospect of Ukraine giving up a significant chunk of its land to end the current conflict might provide a political win for the Trump administration. But it would be a historic blunder that would open the door to more Russian aggression in the future.

Carl O. Schuster, a retired Navy captain, makes that case in a new op-ed for The Washington Times and argues that a land-for-peace deal will all but guarantee that the conflict will reignite.

“Unlike America’s professional political and media elites, Mr. Zelenskyy sees history as more than the events that have transpired since the last American election or press conference. He knows that Mr. Putin has the same view of history,” Mr. Schuster writes. “Mr. Zelenskyy has a nation to protect and preserve, not just during his time in office but also far beyond. He knows that Mr. Putin wants to gain Ukraine’s last line of defensible terrain in hopes of conquering his country once Western attention has shifted elsewhere.”

Threat Status Events Radar

Aug. 26 — Reexamining the U.S.-South Africa Relationship, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Aug. 26 — The Future of Naval Aviation: A Conversation with Vice Adm. Daniel L. Cheever and Lt. Gen. Bradford J. Gering, Center for Strategic & International Studies

Aug. 27 — Advancing America’s Quantum Leadership with Next-Generation Sensors, Center for a New American Security

Aug. 28 — AI Safety Governance in Southeast Asia, Brookings Institution

Sept. 4 — The Digital Front Line: Building a Cyber-Resilient Taiwan, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.