It would’ve sounded like a far-fetched scenario even just a couple of years ago. But military insiders say it’s time to consider how political and military thinking will change when artificial intelligence is able to predict with near-certainty that a war is imminent.

Stu Bradin, the president and CEO of the Global SOF Foundation, explores that fascinating, complex topic on the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast. A retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel with his finger on the pulse of military technology, Mr. Bradin says we are entering a time when AI-powered simulations will force policymakers to approach tough life-and-death decisions much differently.

“What’s going to happen when AI is able to do predictive analysis with a 5% error rate, and they’re going to be able to tell you what’s about to happen?” Mr. Bradin says. “Does a politician act preemptively or do they wait? I think we’re going to struggle because our machines and our information systems are going to be so accurate in the future with predictive analysis that we’re going to have to make decisions preemptively. And culturally we’re not set up for that.”

Alexei Likhachev, director general of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corp., Rosatom, said his nation is facing colossal threats that necessitate the upgrade.

The context is important here: The comments come at a crucial moment on several fronts, including ongoing talks inside NATO about troop deployments to eastern Ukraine to enforce any Russia-Ukraine peace deal. 

But perhaps even more importantly, Mr. Likhachev’s remarks come as the Trump administration moves ahead with its Golden Dome missile shield, specifically designed to protect the homeland against missile attacks from adversaries such as China or Russia.

And we already know that China sees the Golden Dome as a threat and is trying to undermine it. It seems that Moscow may have a similar view.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has all the details on the highly anticipated test, scheduled for this fall, of the Air Force’s hypersonic attack cruise missile, or HACM. Threat Status has been closely tracking the Pentagon’s hypersonic research, development and testing. And the HACM is a key piece of what the Defense Department casts as a necessary capability to keep pace with China.

As Mr. Gertz reports, the Air Force spelled out in recent budget documents that “the speed and maneuverability of the missile are designed to overcome sophisticated enemy air and missile defenses, and it will be launched at standoff ranges from both penetrating and nonpenetrating bomber aircraft.”

The HACM will be launched from B-52 and the forthcoming B-21 bombers and will use scramjet technology for flying at multiple altitudes with a maneuvering flight pattern. It will also be fired from F-15 and F-18 jets. Funding for HACM is expected to increase to $802 million in 2026, a sharp increase from $354 million spent in 2025.

Even as Mr. Trump pushes hard for a ceasefire, Russia is ramping up its attacks on Ukraine. The latest strike on Thursday saw Russian forces fire 574 drones and 40 ballistic and cruise missiles overnight, according to Ukrainian military officials.

It’s worth noting the targets and the timing of these strikes. The assault reportedly targeted western regions of the country, where much of the military aid from the U.S. and other NATO nations is stored. Hitting aid stockpiles right now, as NATO deliberates whether to station a permanent peacekeeping force in Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire with Russia, could be the Kremlin’s way of sending a message.

It’s already highly lucrative: 7% yearly growth over the past two decades, with a projected value of $1 trillion by 2023. But America’s status as the leader of the rapidly growing global space economy isn’t guaranteed, especially as other global players such as China make their own plays for a greater share in the boom.

Retired Air Force Gen. Heather Pringle, now the CEO of Space Foundation, goes in-depth on the space economy in a new piece for The Washington Times. She argues that the space economy is now central to modern-day American life and that we’re in the midst of a crucial moment to ensure the U.S. maintains its leadership role.

“Although an American foothold remains, the rise of international players in space, such as China and Russia, will challenge the status quo. Moreover, rapid shifts from technology innovations such as artificial intelligence will further transform the global space economy to the point where it will be unrecognizable a decade from now,” she writes.

• Aug. 21 — Trump’s New Counterterrorism Strategy Landscape, The Heritage Foundation

• Aug. 26 — Reexamining the U.S.-South Africa Relationship, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Aug. 26 — The Future of Naval Aviation: A Conversation with Vice Adm. Daniel L. Cheever and Lt. Gen. Bradford J. Gering, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Aug. 27 —Advancing America’s Quantum Leadership with Next-Generation Sensors, Center for a New American Security

• Aug. 28 —AI Safety Governance in Southeast Asia, Brookings Institution 

• Sept. 4 — The Digital Front Line: Building a Cyber-Resilient Taiwan, Hudson Institute