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Threat Status for Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz and Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon look inside the collision between two Chinese military ships during a pincer harassment operation against a Philippine coast guard boat.

… President Trump remains optimistic, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of agreeing to a peace deal.

… Mr. Trump has extended a trade truce with China for another 90 days, as the administration refines its use of tariffs for leverage in great power geopolitics.

… The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council made a quiet visit Monday to Iraq, which is trying to remain neutral amid the ongoing Middle East conflicts.

… The State Department has designated the Pakistan-based Balochistan Liberation Army as a “foreign terrorist organization” — a move likely intended to appease India at a moment of tension with Washington punishing India for purchasing Russian oil.

… A U.S. defense industrial scale-up for next-generation missile defense is well underway. L3Harris Technologies’ General Manager for Proliferated Missile Defense Josh Lovejoy discusses it in an exclusive video interview with Threat Status.

… North Koreans tell the BBC they’re being sent to work like slaves in Russia.

… And the Sydney-based defense tech company DroneShield has launched SentryCiv, which the company calls a “solution designed specifically for critical infrastructure protection.”

Inside the Chinese ship collision during harassment operation

In this photo, taken from video and provided by the Philippine coast guard, a damaged Chinese coast guard ship, right, is seen beside a Chinese navy vessel, left, after they accidentally collided while chasing a Philippine fisheries boat near Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on Monday Aug. 11, 2025. (Philippine Coast Guard via AP)

Dramatic video of Monday’s incident near the disputed Scarborough Shoal posted on social media showed that a Chinese coast guard cutter sustained a crushed bow after ramming into a Chinese warship. The two Chinese vessels collided as their intended target, a Philippine coast guard vessel, sailed out of the way in what appeared to be a pincer harassment attack.

Philippine coast guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela called the Chinese collision “reckless.” The Philippine coast guard has consistently urged the Chinese government to respect a 1972 convention designed to prevent collisions at sea and to approach the situation with professionalism.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian made no mention of the collision in a statement on X about the Scarborough Shoal, which China calls Huangyan Dao and asserts as its territory. The shoal is a disputed atoll claimed by China, the Philippines and Taiwan and one of several Spratly islands where China and the Philippines have been locked in maritime confrontations.

Zelenskyy warns Russia not interested in peace

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers a speech at the Council of Europe after signing the legal instruments necessary to launch the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, in Strasbourg, eastern France, Wednesday, June 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien) ** FILE **

The Ukrainian president made the accusation Tuesday, warning that Moscow is now preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine all while Mr. Putin plays along with a planned summit with Mr. Trump in Alaska on Friday.

In an X post, Mr. Zelenskyy thanked Western leaders for their diplomatic efforts to end the war, as well as their support for Kyiv’s independence and territorial integrity. But he added that Russia is not currently interested in ending the war. His comments come as Western European leaders seek talks with Mr. Trump ahead of Friday’s summit in an effort to protect their security interests. 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has organized a series of meetings for Wednesday, inviting Mr. Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, Mr. Zelenskyy, NATO’s chief and several European leaders to attend. A primary question heading into Friday is whether Mr. Trump will tolerate Mr. Putin’s demand that Moscow be allowed to keep eastern Ukrainian territory seized by Russian forces during the war.

Illegal immigrant population down 1.6 million under Trump crackdown

A family from Colombia is detained and escorted to a bus by federal agents following an appearance at immigration court Monday, July 14, 2025, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Mr. Trump is booting out illegal immigrants faster than President Biden added them, according to the latest Census Bureau numbers, which show an unprecedented drop in the number of immigrants living in the United States.

The total number of foreign-born people dropped by 2.2 million from January to July, and most of that — 1.6 million — was among the illegal immigrant population, says Steven A. Camarota, the research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, who crunched the numbers.

It’s an almost unfathomable turnaround from the Biden years, when illegal immigrants surged into the U.S. at record rates, netting about 120,000 new people each month. Over the past six months, though, the illegal immigrant population has been dropping at nearly 270,000 a month, or more than twice the rate of increase under Mr. Biden.

Opinion: It's time to resume talks with North Korea

Denuclearization talks between North Korea and the United States of America, illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Joseph R. DeTrani writes that “during the past five years, when we didn’t talk to North Korea, the country built more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver these nuclear bombs as far as the United States.”

“North Korea’s pivot to Russia in 2024 was a smart tactical move,” writes Mr. DeTrani, a former high-level U.S. diplomat and intelligence official and Threat Status opinion contributor. “It put North Korea on center stage with the introduction of its troops and weaponry to aid Russia in its war with Ukraine,” he writes. “It also sent a message to the U.S. and China that North Korea is an independent actor, not solely dependent on China and not fixated on a normal relationship with the U.S.

“In the next few weeks,” Mr. DeTrani writes, “Mr. Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will have a summit. Trade issues will undoubtedly be discussed, but I think a fair amount of time will be spent on national security issues and developments with North Korea.”

Opinion: Tragic deaths of two girls still haunt South Korea and expose the dangers of right-left division

Deaths of two girls and South Korea politics illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The family of one of the two 15-year-old girls who were run over and killed by a U.S. armored vehicle in South Korea in June 2002 refused to show up for a recent memorial marking the 23rd anniversary of the tragedy, which endangered Korean-American relations, Donald Kirk writes.

Mr. Kirk, a former Far East correspondent for the Chicago Tribune and the old Washington Star, notes: “The father of the other girl, on hand for the ceremony, wept as he addressed the crowd of villagers and anti-American leftists from Seoul, 20 miles south. ‘The pain remains as if it happened yesterday,’ he said.

“The responses of both fathers and their families epitomize the right-left gap that divides Koreans as their newly elected left-leaning president, Lee Jae-myung, looks for ways to restore dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and improve relations with China,” Mr. Kirk writes.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Aug. 12-13 — Ai4 2025: Artificial Intelligence Industry Event, Ai4

• Aug. 12 — North Korean Foreign Policy in Focus: Emerging Scholar Perspectives, Stimson Center

• Aug. 13 — In-Person Two-Day NetBrain Power User Training, NetBrain Technologies 

• Aug. 15 — Deterrence Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific: An Australian Perspective with Christine Leah, National Institute for Deterrence Studies

• Aug. 20 — The Future of U.S.-Australia Critical Minerals Cooperation, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Aug. 26 — The Future of Naval Aviation: A Conversation with Vice Adm. Daniel L. Cheever and Lt. Gen. Bradford J. Gering, Center for Strategic & International Studies

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.