Threat Status for Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
… President Trump broke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday by acknowledging that there is “real starvation” occurring in Gaza.
… Americans’ approval for Israel’s war in Gaza is at an all-time low, with just 32% supporting the effort, according to new polling from Gallup.
… The State Department, meanwhile, has slammed the United Nations for holding a two-state solution conference, calling it a “publicity stunt that comes in the middle of delicate diplomatic efforts to end” the Israel-Hamas war.
… Taiwan’s president has postponed a planned trip to Latin America that would have included stops in the U.S. after Mr. Trump reportedly opposed the U.S. visit out of concern it could disrupt trade talks with China.
… In the latest episode of the Threat Status Influencers Series, China expert Miles Yu explains how there are only two real superpowers left in the world.
… And South Korea’s former defense attache to the U.S., retired Army Maj. Gen. Shin Kyoung Soo, says the Seoul-Washington alliance is being tested by North Korea, China and Russia but “holds great potential for renewed cooperation.”
Mr. Trump’s frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin was on display Monday, as the White House suddenly shifted its ultimatum for Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, saying Mr. Putin now must do so within 10 to 12 days or face massive “secondary tariffs” that would target Russia’s major trading partners.
The development comes two weeks after Mr. Trump gave Mr. Putin a 50-day deadline, set to expire in early September, to strike a peace deal with Ukraine. Speaking alongside U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer during a meeting in Scotland on Monday, Mr. Trump said the new deadline is necessary because the U.S. does not see “any progress being made.”
Russia fired a barrage of drones and missiles at Ukraine on Sunday night, according to officials in Kyiv. Mr. Putin continues to bomb Ukrainian cities despite calls for Mr. Trump to reach a deal. The president’s shift on Monday drew praise from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Too many innocent lives are at stake for President Trump to let Putin continue playing him for time,” she said. “This shorter deadline is a positive step, but long overdue.”
The emergence this year of DeepSeek — seen as a cost-effective artificial intelligence breakthrough from China — was a wake-up call for U.S. industry technologists, but many appear to have since hit the snooze button. San Francisco-based OpenAI, which is working to foster closer ties with U.S. military and intelligence officials, recently delayed its own launch of a much-anticipated new AI model, citing the need to “run additional safety tests and review high-risk areas.”
Some observers say another Chinese attempt to steal OpenAI’s thunder helped prompt the delay. Just before the OpenAI delay, the Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled its open-weight model, Kimi K2, which attracted major interest from AI developers and enthusiasts online. Open-weight large-language models are designed to give people greater access to the models’ parameters to build custom solutions.
In the interim, the Trump administration and some private researchers have been making changes to better position the U.S. to win the global AI race. The administration announced an AI Action Plan last week aimed at ensuring American dominance in the sector. National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace offers a deeper dive examining the situation.
U.S.-armed Thailand and Chinese-aided Cambodia, both under tariff pressure from Washington, agreed to an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” Monday after aerial bombardments and cross-border artillery killed at least 36 people in five days of the bloodiest fighting in a decade along their disputed border in the heart of Southeast Asia.
The development staves off what had appeared in recent weeks to be the outbreak of a war with great power implications, given the U.S. and Chinese involvement. Washington Times Special Correspondent Richard Ehrlich reports in a dispatch from Bangkok that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats may have influenced Thai and Cambodian officials to move quickly to end the hostilities.
Mr. Trump claimed credit on social media Monday, saying the two sides had “reached a CEASEFIRE and PEACE… I am proud to be the President of PEACE!” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posted news of the ceasefire on X and wrote: “President Trump made this happen. Give him the Nobel Peace Prize!”
Mr. Trump threatened to bomb Iran again if it restarts uranium enrichment in remarks to reporters at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland on Monday, saying recent belligerent statements from Iranian officials had worried him. “We wiped out their nuclear possibilities,” the president said. “They can start again. If they do, we’ll wipe it out faster than you can wave your finger at it.”
The comments came days after U.S. diplomats were left on the sidelines as Iranian officials engaged in multinational nuclear talks with European officials in Turkey. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that if the U.S. carried out new attacks on Iranian targets, Tehran would respond in kind. “If aggression is repeated, we will not hesitate to react in a more decisive manner and in a way that will be IMPOSSIBLE to cover up,” Mr. Araghchi posted on X.
The U.S. in June carried out strikes on three Iranian enrichment facilities. Reports indicate that U.S.-led strikes severely damaged three of Iran’s largest uranium enrichment centers, but several analyses have concluded that Iran would be able to restart enrichment in the near future.
Retired South Korean Army Maj. Gen. Shin Kyoung Soo writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times that the Korean Peninsula “continues to be one of the most volatile parts of the world.” He emphasizes: “North Korea is accelerating the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic systems, while deepening its military ties with Russia. Recent reports indicate that North Korean troops and weapons have been sent to support the war in Ukraine. Pyongyang’s continued missile launches and drone incursions near the Demilitarized Zone raise the risk of miscalculation and unintended conflict.
“At the same time, China’s military buildup and increasingly assertive diplomacy are reshaping the regional security landscape,” writes Mr. Shin, a former South Korean defense attache to the U.S. who is secretary-general of the Korea-U.S. Alliance Foundation. “A recent example is the construction of a ‘fishing facility’ in the West Sea, which many view as an effort to assert territorial control, echoing Beijing’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea. This is a clear challenge to the rules-based international order.”
Mr. Shin, who recently offered remarks at the Gold Institute for International Strategy’s Security & Diplomacy Conference in Washington, says that “as we look toward the future of the Korean Peninsula and the broader Indo-Pacific, the Korea-U.S. alliance remains central to our security, stability and prosperity. …This alliance is being tested by growing threats but holds great potential for renewed cooperation.”
• Aug. 5 — Misinformation: What Is It and What Should We Do About It? Cato Institute
• Aug. 5-7 — 2025 Space & Missile Defense Symposium, SMD Symposium
• Aug. 13 — The U.S. Space Force’s Jonathan Farrow on the U.S. Space Warfighting Framework, Atlantic Council
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