The Trump administration appears to have staved off the prospect of a widening riff with one of America’s top military allies in the Indo-Pacific by reaching a trade deal with Japan under which Tokyo has agreed to invest some $550 billion in U.S. economic security sectors — from microchips to shipbuilding, critical minerals and artificial intelligence technology.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the approach helped his side secure a 15% tariff on goods its companies send to American markets, instead of the 25% levy that Mr. Trump had threatened. It remains to be seen how the Japanese public will respond to the deal, which follows a period of significant hand-wringing in Tokyo over the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance.

The alliance features some 54,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Japan and is seen as critical to Washington’s efforts to maintain security in a region where China, Russia and North Korea have tightening bonds and Beijing particularly has engaged in increased military muscle-flexing against U.S.-aligned democracies in recent years.

The security dynamics are complicated by trade, as China is Japan’s largest trading partner, although the U.S. represents the biggest export market for Japanese goods, most notably automobiles. Sources tell Threat Status the impetus behind Mr. Trump’s tariff threats stemmed from the president’s frustration that the U.S. had a nearly $70 billion trade deficit with Tokyo in 2024, meaning the Asian superpower sold a far higher dollar value in products to U.S. consumers versus what Japan bought from American producers.

Talisman Sabre was a relatively modest bilateral military exercise between the U.S. and Australia when it debuted in 2005 at the Shoalwater Bay Military Training Area in Queensland. It has since grown to 19 participating nations, with Thailand and Vietnam observing the maneuvers at this year’s drills, which took place in recent days.

Lt. Gen. Joel B. Vowell, deputy commander of U.S. Army Pacific, told the Defense Writers Group this week that the explosive growth of the biennial exercise is a clear signal that stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region are critical for democratic countries in the region. “That’s because of the hostile actions and behaviors, particularly the People’s Republic of China, but also the threats from Russia and North Korea and other issues that we deal with every day,” Gen. Vowell said Tuesday.

A Talisman Sabre highlight was a combined artillery fire mission by the U.S., Australia and Singapore using the truck-mounted High Mobility Rocket System, HIMARS. The U.S. sent dozens of HIMARS to Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. It is credited with helping Kyiv destroy hundreds of Russian high-value targets like command posts and arms depots.

A provision in the Senate’s fiscal 2026 defense authorization bill states that senators are concerned the Air Force is not ready to keep the U.S. arsenal of Minuteman III nuclear missiles active until the troubled Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program is deployed.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz reports the version of the legislation passed recently by the Senate Armed Services Committee requires the commander of the Global Strike Command to brief the committee no later than Dec. 31 on its plans for keeping Minuteman IIIs on duty until the new Sentinel is deployed.

The Senate version of the defense authorization bill has $4.6 billion for Sentinel, notably more than the $3 billion called for in a House version of the bill. The Senate bill contains a provision that calls for the Air Force to set a target date for the initial deployment of Sentinel and a prohibition on reducing the number of the new ICBMs below 400 missiles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “strategic objective, consistent with his infamous statement that the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the past century was the collapse of the Soviet Union, is to conquer Ukraine, install a pro-Kremlin puppet regime in Kyiv and expand Russia’s sphere of influence into Europe,” writes Daniel N. Hoffman.

“However, Mr. Putin also has the U.S. in his crosshairs,” writes Mr. Hoffman, a retired CIA clandestine services officer and opinion contributor to Threat Status. “By deliberately timing his most savage attacks on Ukrainian civilians after engaging in phone conversations with President Trump, Mr. Putin is seeking to demonstrate that the U.S. has no capacity to project power into the Kremlin’s self-designated sphere of influence.

“Mr. Putin wants the U.S. to appear weak on the world stage, without any of the vaunted soft power that over the years has cemented close relationships between the U.S. and its allies,” Mr. Hoffman writes. “From the days of Mr. Putin’s KGB, the Kremlin has always referred to the U.S. as Russia’s ‘main enemy’ because the U.S., in President Reagan’s eloquent words, has always been a ‘shining city on a hill.’”

Those who argue that “China is the priority threat to the exclusion of red flags in Europe and the Middle East are mistaken,” writes retired U.S. Army Col. L. Scott Lingamfelter. “Some policymakers suggest that, given limited U.S. military power, we should redirect our assets in Europe and the Middle East to China. They are overlooking the real problem.

“In the first two decades of this century, America’s military was focused on counterinsurgency warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks,” Mr. Lingamfelter writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times.

“These wars were poorly prosecuted and sapped the U.S. military of its readiness and structure to fight conflicts of greater scale, such as those required for conventional war,” he writes. “However, as the war in Ukraine and the conflict with Iran demonstrate, the American military must be able to engage the full spectrum of warfare, counterinsurgencies, regional conflicts and conventional wars.”

• July 24 — 11 Years On: The Yezidi Genocide and the Road to Recovery, Atlantic Council

• July 24 — Coffee Series: Maj. Gen. Mark Bennett, Director of the Army Budget Office, Association of the United States Army

• July 29 — Will the Iraq-Kuwait Dispute Undermine the Future of Gulf Integration? Chatham House

• July 29 — ICE Pact: The Icebreaker Collaboration Effort and Arctic Security Conversation, The Heritage Foundation

• July 30 — Malaysia, China and the Region in a Pivotal Year, Lowy Institute

• July 31 — Breaking Out of Quarantine: Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan, Center for Strategic & International Studies