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The Washington Times

Threat Status for Monday, July 14, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

President Trump is expected to announce a new plan to supply Ukraine with weapons, including Patriot missile defense batteries and possibly offensive military equipment. Mr. Trump again vented his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin in what has been a notable shift in the U.S. leader’s attitude toward the war. 

… Sen. Lindsey Graham, a key Trump ally, framed Mr. Trump’s Monday announcement as a “turning point” and said he expects to see U.S. weapons flowing to Ukraine “at a record level.” Mr. Trump is meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Monday. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, is in Kyiv. 

… It’s also possible Mr. Trump could zero in on Russia’s lucrative oil industry with new economic sanctions or secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian fuel. Mr. Trump has indicated he backs legislation to do that.

… The BBC admits a recent documentary breached editorial guidelines by not disclosing that the father of the program’s 13-year-old narrator is a Hamas official.

… Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly was injured in a June 15 Israeli airstrike on Tehran.

… French President Emmanuel Macron said his country will significantly boost its defense spending.

… It appears likely that a meeting between Mr. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will happen this year. 

… Mr. Trump also is expected to make his second state visit to the U.K.

… At least four people have nominated Mr. Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. 

… And the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum has been ranked the most disappointing museum in the world.

Could North Korean troops cross into Ukraine?

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting in Wonsan, North Korea, on Saturday, July 12, 2025. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that Pyongyang is “ready to unconditionally support” Russia in its war in Ukraine. That’s fueling speculation that North Korea could send additional troops to fight alongside the Russians, perhaps this time taking part in operations on Ukrainian soil.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon tracked Mr. Lavrov’s weekend visit to North Korea, during which he thanked Mr. Kim for being the only foreign power to send troops to join in Russia’s invasion of its neighbor. Comments from both Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kim suggest the partnership could grow even deeper.

As many as 13,000 North Korean troops joined Russian units in a monthslong campaign to eject a Ukrainian incursion in Russia’s Kursk oblast. But so far, North Korean forces haven’t crossed the border and fought on Ukrainian soil.  

Navy's next-gen sub faces major delays, cost uncertainty

This photo provided by the U.S. Navy shows Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Missouri (SSN 780) as it departs Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Sept. 1, 2021. (Chief Mass Communication Specialist Amanda R. Gray/U.S. Navy via AP) **FILE**

The Navy’s next-generation nuclear-powered submarine, a key piece of America’s undersea dominance strategy in the coming decades, is facing significant delays that will keep it out of the water until at least 2040.

A recent report from the Congressional Research Service examined the issues swirling around the sub, known as the SSN(X), which had been expected to be in production by the middle of the next decade. The delays could present problems for the Navy but also for the submarine design industrial base, the report says.

There are also major discrepancies in projected procurement costs. The Navy says the price tag will be $7.1 billion, but a Congressional Budget Office estimate puts the cost at $8.7 billion. 

Pentagon pulls promotion for admiral whose carrier hosted drag shows

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks during a news conference at the Pentagon in Washington, Sunday, June 22, 2025, after the U.S. military struck three sites in Iran, directly joining Israel's effort to destroy the country's nuclear program. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) **FILE**

The Defense Department didn’t confirm the reasons why it was withdrawing the nomination of Rear Adm. Michael “Buzz” Donnelly to lead the Navy’s Japan-based 7th Fleet and scrapping his promotion to three-star vice admiral. But Adm. Donnelly was the commander of the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier from 2016 to 2018, when a sailor staged Navy-sanctioned drag queen performances aboard the warship under the drag name “Harpy Daniels.”

Military Correspondent Mike Glenn has more on this story, which seems to be another clear example of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth unwinding what critics say was a culture of wokeness that took hold inside the U.S. military. 

Military analysts say Adm. Donnelly was, from a purely professional standpoint, fully qualified for the job. There’s no other clear reason why he’s not getting the position, other than the drag shows aboard his vessel last decade.

Is the U.S.-South Korea alliance in danger?

A protester wearing mask of U.S. President Donald Trump, center, attends a news conference against Trump's tariffs policy and demand South Korean acting President Han Duck-soo and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok to resign, in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

It’s a high-stakes question, and one that could have serious ramifications for America’s broader strategy in the Pacific. Mr. Salmon has a deep dive into the dynamics in both nations: In Washington, the concerns that South Korea’s newly elected liberal president, Lee Jae-myung, could degrade the bilateral alliance.

And in Seoul, fears that Mr. Trump’s intermingling of commercial and strategic issues could hurt the relationship, specifically if he were to link his promised tariffs on South Korea with the U.S. military’s presence there.

Mr. Salmon reports from Seoul and takes readers inside the recent high-level meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his diplomatic counterparts from South Korea and Japan. Separately, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine met with his military counterparts from those two nations in Seoul on Friday.

Opinion: Damage assessment key for next U.S. steps on Iran

The United States of America's Iran strategy illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

The Trump administration’s next steps on Iran hinge on a full, accurate battle damage assessment that shows just how much damage was done by U.S. airstrikes to Iran’s nuclear program. Daniel N. Hoffman, a retired CIA officer and opinion contributor to Threat Status, explains in a new column that the assessment, or BDA, is a crucial piece of intelligence that should drive American policy toward Tehran.

“Iran, of course, will lie about and obfuscate its intentions to reconstitute its nuclear program,” Mr. Hoffman writes. “The BDA must clearly delineate what, if any, nuclear infrastructure might have survived the kinetic strikes, including centrifuges that might not have yet been installed and the disposition of Iran’s stockpile of roughly 900 pounds of enriched uranium.”

More than three weeks after the strikes, however, the Pentagon says it’s still waiting for a BDA from the U.S. intelligence community.

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 14-17 — GenAI Summit, GenAI Week

• July 15-18 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Institute

• July 15 — Drone Warfare and Securing America’s Military Against Emerging Threats with Sen. John Boozman, Hudson Institute

• July 15 — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen on U.S. Soft Power and Competition with China, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• July 15 — Rare Earth Mining and Conflict Economies in Northern Myanmar, Stimson Center

• July 15 — Countering Communist Cyborgs: China’s Dystopian AI Ambitions and the Robotics Race, Hudson Institute

• July 16 — Fortifying Deterrence through Logistics: A Conversation with Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Patrick Kelleher and Maj. Gen. David Sanford, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• July 16 — Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition, Center for a New American Security

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.