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Threat Status for Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Iran has formally ended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, effectively blocking all foreign inspections of uranium enrichment sites.

… The move could be something of a calculated gamble by Tehran. Restoring IAEA access is theoretically a bargaining chip that Iran can use in negotiations with the U.S.

… President Trump said Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and urged Hamas to take the deal or “it will only get worse.” But the Palestinian terror group stopped short of accepting the proposal.

… Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said an illegal immigrant cannibal “started to eat himself” while being deported.

… The U.S. is halting some weapons shipments to Ukraine.

… Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country will implement temporary border controls with Germany and Lithuania. 

… The Trump administration launched a “critical minerals initiative” with its partners in the Quad: Australia, India and Japan. 

… And FBI officials suppressed intelligence pointing to Chinese interference in the 2020 presidential election, according to internal bureau documents. 

U.S. pauses some weapons shipments to Ukraine

A fire is seen after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday, June 23, 2025. (AP Photo)

The shift from the Trump administration seems to reflect growing concern inside the White House and Pentagon that America’s own stockpiles are getting too low. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the decision comes after a Defense Department “review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe.”

The U.S. has provided more than $66 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022. Those American arms have been crucial to Ukraine’s defense against the Russian army. And as recently as last week, Mr. Trump indicated that the U.S. could provide more Patriot missile defense batteries to the Ukrainian side.

But America’s military support for a host of allies around the world, such as Israel, and its own recent military actions against Iran seem to have changed the calculus and made decision-makers more cautious.

Fentanyl part of China's asymmetric warfare against U.S.

Jonathan Dumke, a senior forensic chemist with the Drug Enforcement Administration, holds vials of fentanyl pills at a DEA research laboratory on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, in Northern Virginia. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) ** FILE **

Beijing is pursuing a modern version of what the Chinese call “shashoujian,” or “assassin’s mace,” which is the technique of using weapons designed to enable a weaker military to defeat a stronger power — in this case, the U.S. military. And fentanyl-trafficking Mexican drug cartels are a key part of that strategy.

That’s the conclusion of a report from the CCP Biothreats Initiative, a think tank staffed by former military and civilian intelligence experts. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz dives into the eye-opening study, which concludes that leaders in Beijing realize their shortfalls in a direct military confrontation with the U.S. and instead plan to use “a range of asymmetric weapons and covert action programs.”

The study goes into great detail about how Chinese Communist Party-backed Mexican cartels are engaged in biochemical warfare against Western countries, including the U.S.

Thailand's democracy hangs in the balance

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra arrives at Government House for a cabinet meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Thailand’s high court is weighing allegations that embattled Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra endangered the country’s national security when she criticized a Royal Thai Army commander during a recent call. That call, with Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen, has sparked another round of political upheaval in Thailand.

Washington Times Foreign Correspondent Richard S. Ehrlich has a fresh dispatch from Bangkok and examines the turmoil swirling around Ms. Paetongtarn, 38, who is just the latest democratically elected leader to run afoul of the royalist military. The military has twice overthrown governments connected to Ms. Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a twice-elected former prime minister and political power broker. 

Opinion: Securing critical minerals no job for amateurs

America Mining Its Own Minerals Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times

It’s clear that access to critical minerals is crucial for American national security. But an equally important part of the equation is exactly who oversees the complex mining projects needed to extract them.

In a new op-ed for The Times, Marc LeVier, former president of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration, argues that the exploding interest in mining from both Silicon Valley tech titans and political insiders in Washington opens a host of potential problems. So-called experts and companies without the necessary expertise and qualifications, Mr. LeVier argues, seek to position themselves at the forefront of the industry.

“Writ large, they are all promising to save America with unachievable timelines and mineral production claims that aren’t economical,” he writes

The dynamic, Mr. LeVier says, now sees “the greatest collection of nonexperts setting strategies and seeking government grants and equity loans to develop mineral deposits that have little to no chance of success.”

Opinion: Don't believe that Iran will give up pursuit of nuclear weapons

Iran's government and Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

There’s nothing in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s 45-year history that suggests it’s willing to abandon support for terrorist groups. Nor should the U.S. expect it to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons, even in light of recent American airstrikes targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities.

Former U.S. intelligence official and Threat Status opinion contributor Joseph R. DeTrani makes that case in a new piece for The Times. He lays out why the U.S. must be wary of Iran’s intentions, even if it appears to be open to new diplomatic negotiations.

“We would be remiss to think the ayatollah has given up on the use of terrorism to intimidate and deal with those opposed to his leadership. We would also be remiss to believe that theocracy will cease pursuing a nuclear weapons capability,” he writes.

Threat Status Events Radar

• July 7 — The Power Behind Israel’s Economic Strength in War, The Heritage Foundation 

• July 11 — The Han Kuang Exercise and the Taiwanese Military’s Road to Readiness, Hudson Institute

• July 13-17 — GenAI Summit, GenAI Week

• July 15-18 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Institute

• July 16 — Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition, Center for a New American Security

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.