The administration attempted over the weekend to use the U.S.-Iran confrontation — and specifically the possibility that Iran could retaliate economically by shutting down the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway — as a way to divide Tehran from some of its global partners, particularly China.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly urged China to use its influence to pressure Iran to keep open the passage, arguing that a blockade by Tehran would harm all global commerce, including that of China. At least 20% of all the world’s oil consumption passes through the strait daily.

China and Iran, along with Russia, North Korea and occasionally Venezuela, are typically grouped in what many analysts call the “Axis of Authoritarians,” but there’s some degree of uncertainty about China’s true positions and whether it privately may have been at least tacitly supportive of the idea of taking Tehran’s nuclear ambitions off the table.

The White House gave no indications that either China or Russia, another key Iranian ally, provided Iran with advance notice about the U.S. strikes. The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan and called them a violation of international law.

Israeli airstrikes pounded several Iranian government targets in Tehran Monday in a fresh retaliatory assault following the salvo of missiles and drones that Iran fired at Israel after the U.S. strikes on Saturday. Israeli officials said they also struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility in the wake of the American strikes.

The renewed assault comes as more than 40,000 American military personnel across the Middle East remain on heightened alert over the prospect that Iran will come through on its threat to target U.S. outposts in the region as retaliation for the U.S. involvement in Israel’s campaign. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that any retaliation by Iran or its proxies would be “an incredibly poor choice.” 

Gen. Caine stressed on Sunday that American forces, from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in the region, to smaller outposts in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere, were operating under elevated force protection measures. Mr. Trump indicated in the hours after the U.S. strikes that there were “many targets left” in Iran “if peace does not come quickly.” The prospect of a dangerous escalation now looms because Iranian retaliation would likely trigger a more robust second wave from U.S. forces.

Mr. Trump is expected to arrive in the Netherlands Tuesday for a major summit of NATO leaders that will be dominated by talk of potential Iranian retaliation, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and division among some in the alliance over the U.S. demand that members begin spending at least 5% of their gross domestic product on defense.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed optimism last week that European members and Canada would commit to investing at least as much of their economic growth on defense as the United States does for the first time. But Spain has rejected the target, calling it “unreasonable.” The division will be on display at this week’s summit, as the alliance operates on a consensus that requires the backing of all 32 members.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend the summit’s opening dinner on Tuesday. Side conversations are likely to focus on the possibility of a third round of direct Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, as well as how NATO nations are poised to collaborate in anticipation of possible Iranian cyberattacks tagging Europe and the United States.

Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resisted demands over the weekend that she resign, shrugging off warnings of a possible military coup after she criticized a Royal Thai Army commander during a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen.

The current crisis stems from a border feud between Thailand’s U.S.-trained military and Cambodia’s Chinese-assisted troops, which escalated on May 28, when Thai troops shot dead a Cambodian soldier in the disputed Emerald Triangle where eastern Thailand, northern Cambodia and southern Laos meet. The subsequent release of a taped conciliatory phone call between Ms. Shinawatra and Mr. Hun Sen energized the prime minister’s critics, including the nation’s powerful military.

The Cambodian leader weighed in on the situation Friday, warning in Khmer language online of “a dangerous game that could lead to self-destruction!” He was responding to Thais who suggested Bangkok cut off oil exports to Cambodia as a negotiating pressure tactic to solve the border dispute. “If you want that,” he wrote, “go ahead with your plan.”

Washington Times columnist Rowan Scarborough goes inside the rift between Mr. Trump’s MAGA base and conservative hawks over the president’s decision to bomb Iran, with a particular focus on last week’s “testy debate” between Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Republican, and Tucker Carlson. 

“Part of the U.S. justification for helping Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear bomb infrastructure, perhaps spurring an uprising against the mullahs’ harsh dictatorship, is that Iran conspires to kill Americans,” writes Mr. Scarborough, who notes that Mr. Trump has ignored Mr. Carlson’s urging to refrain from aiding Israel’s campaign against Iran. 

“Mr. Cruz advocates for regime change on the grounds that Iranians deserve better than fanatical Islamic leaders who hang gays and beat up noncompliant women,” Mr. Scarborough writes. “Mr. Carlson has experienced an Iran conversion. At one time, he advocated for Iran’s destruction to save the world from the ‘Death to America’ Islamic cult.”

• June 24 — The Need for Speed: Transforming Defense Procurement for a Dangerous World, Hudson Institute

• June 25 — The New IC, Intelligence and National Security Alliance

• June 25 — Algorithms and Authoritarians Hearing, House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party 

• June 26 — How AI is Uncovering and Rebuilding the Architecture of the Mind, OpenAI

• June 26 — The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan, Stimson Center

• July 13-17 — GenAI Summit, GenAI Week

• July 15-18 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Institute