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Threat Status for Friday, June 20, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Iran’s foreign minister said hours before an anticipated meeting with European officials Friday that Tehran will not continue nuclear talks with the U.S. while under attack by Israel. 

… He acknowledged that President Trump’s team has “repeatedly sent messages calling seriously for negotiations.”  

… Mr. Trump has given Iran two more weeks to negotiate before deciding whether the U.S. will intervene in the Middle East conflict.

… Russia carried out an overnight drone barrage on Kharkiv and Odesa, even as the Kremlin signaled its hope for renewed peace talks with Ukraine.

… Tensions are escalating between Thailand’s U.S.-trained military and Cambodia’s Chinese-assisted troops.

… The latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast features an eye-opening discussion on Chinese authoritarianism with Ed Wong from The New York Times.

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went into more detail than usual this week in describing the Pentagon’s scramble to acquire new drone technologies.

… Senate Republicans are starkly divided on how Mr. Trump should proceed on Iran.

… And Turkey is ramping up its deterrence capabilities amid fears of spillover from the Israel-Iran war.

Podcast: Why the U.S. should bomb Iran (and why it shouldn't)

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Piranshahr facility in Iran after being hit by Israeli airstrikes, on Saturday, June 14, 2025. (Maxar Technologies via AP)

Ben and Guy break down Mr. Trump’s looming decision on whether to order U.S. military strikes on Iran in the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast. They examine how Israel’s advanced Iron Dome air defense shield is performing in the face of hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israeli cities and towns over the past week.

Ed Wong of The New York Times joins the episode for an exclusive interview about his book, “At the Edge of Empire — a family’s reckoning with China,” and a discussion on Chinese Communist Party authoritarianism and policies.

The CCP has “looked at the U.S. model of dominance around the world” and “wants to project power in the same way that the U.S. does, says Mr. Wong. “It looks around at the way the U.S. set up its empire after World War II through things like the U.N. or the World Bank and other multilateral institutions. It looks at the way that the U.S. set up its military bases around the world and projects power via those bases … and essentially wants to do the same thing.”

Inside the Pentagon's race to expand use of small offensive drones

A Russian drone attacks a building during Russia's massive missile and drone air attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, June 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

The U.S. military is investing heavily in military drones, based on the battlefield successes of using attack drones in remote strikes in Ukraine and Israel. Mr. Hegseth testified to Congress this week that the $961.6 billion Pentagon budget request includes a focus on applying advanced technology and innovation to rapidly expand the use of small, unmanned aircraft, both offensive and defensive.

“Incidents in the homeland and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remind us of how this technology has changed modern warfare,” said Mr. Hegseth, who added that supply chain issues pose a significant challenge for developing military drones. He emphasized that China is producing more than 100 commercial drones for every one made by the United States.

The Pentagon’s Replicator program has fielded thousands of unmanned systems in both air and sea and thousands more are planned to bolster deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific, the defense secretary said.

Are China and the U.S. lurking behind the Thailand-Cambodia clash?

Thai policemen hold shields as anti-government protesters gather in front of Government house demanding Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resign in Bangkok, Thailand, Thursday, June 19, 2025, (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

A long-simmering border feud between Thailand’s U.S.-trained military and Cambodia’s Chinese-assisted troops has escalated in recent days into economic boycotts, border closures, disputed claims over Hindu temples and a leaked high-level phone call that has some Thais calling for their prime minister’s resignation.

Washington Times Special Correspondent Richard Ehrlich reports in a dispatch from Bangkok that Thailand’s political stability and the survival of a fragile, rival-packed coalition government that is sensitive to accusations of being soft on neighboring rival Cambodia are at stake as tensions soar on the border and Washington and Beijing jockey for influence behind the scenes.

The trouble began last month when Thai armed forces shot dead one Cambodian soldier in the jungle and scrubland known as the Emerald Triangle, where eastern Thailand, northern Cambodia and southern Laos meet. 

Opinion: An opening for Trump’s big, beautiful Iran deal

President Donald Trump talks with reporters as he meets with members of the Juventus soccer club in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Israel’s strikes have “not just degraded Iran’s capabilities but also have shattered the regime’s illusion of invincibility,” writes James R. Sisco, CEO of risk advisory firm Enodo Global, who argues that “this tactical success creates a rare diplomatic window that aligns with American interests, regional aspirations and public sentiment within Iran.”

“The big, beautiful Iran deal is not a theoretical ideal; it is a practical, enforceable framework with regional buy-in, strategic depth and a vision for long-term peace,” writes Mr. Sisco. “Iraq provides the venue, the U.S. provides the leverage, and the Iranian people provide the will. If embraced, this deal can end the current conflict and reshape the future of the Middle East.”

Opinion: Dictators, beware Israel’s resolve

Israel attacking Iran illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Retired U.S. Army Col. L. Scott Lingamfelter writes that “we are at a point where the most effective response is to make clear to Iran and the world that until the Iranian people, not the U.S. or others, replace their government with one willing to live at peace in its neighborhood, their lot in life will not improve.”

“The U.S. should declare its support for Iran’s resistance movement and actively seek international advocacy for it,” writes Mr. Lingamfelter. “Indeed, Israel’s decisive action has set the conditions for the eventual overthrow of Iran’s repressive regime. It’s time to advance that outcome.

“That may be exactly what the plump Hermit Kingdom’s Kim Jong-un needs to contemplate. … Strikes like those rendered by Israel could result in nights that are sleepless in Pyongyang.”

Threat Status Events Radar

 June 20-22 — International Paris Air Show, Government of France

June 24 — The Need for Speed: Transforming Defense Procurement for a Dangerous World, Hudson Institute

June 25 — The New IC, Intelligence and National Security Alliance

• June 25 — Algorithms and Authoritarians: Why U.S. AI Must Lead hearing, House Select Committee on the CCP

• June 26 — How AI is Uncovering and Rebuilding the Architecture of the Mind, OpenAI

• June 26 — The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan, Stimson Center

• July 13-17 — GenAI Summit, GenAI Week

• July 15-18 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.