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The Washington Times

Threat Status for Tuesday, June 17, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump is weighing whether to order a U.S. airstrike to aid Israel in destroying Iran’s vast underground nuclear facility at Fordo.

… Speculation about such a strike, as well as other possible U.S. involvement in the war, surged following Mr. Trump’s declaration Monday night that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

… Mr. Trump posted on social media early Tuesday that French President Emmanuel Macron was “wrong” to suggest the White House is pursuing an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

… Mr. Trump wrote that the reason he left the Group of Seven summit in Canada a day early had “nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!”

… Russia carried out a massive overnight missile and drone attack on Kyiv, hitting a large apartment building and killing at least 15 people.

… The Chinese Communist Party is making new moves to boost trade with African nations.

… San Francisco-based OpenAI has secured a $200 million Pentagon contract to provide the U.S. government with new artificial intelligence tools.

… And the Paris Air Show opened with flair on Monday, as well as a bit of drama between French and Israeli officials.

Will Trump order U.S. forces to bomb Iran's Fordo nuclear complex?

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Fordo enrichment facility in Iran on Jan. 24, 2025. (Maxar Technologies via AP) ** FILE **

The Israel-Iran missile and drone war churned violently into its fifth day Tuesday, and uncertainty swirled over whether or not Mr. Trump will order U.S. military forces to assist Israel in striking the most fortified center of Iran’s nuclear program — the mountain-encased enrichment facility at Fordo.

Israel has made the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program the central goal of the war and has already launched several missile strikes on other Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Isfahan. There is, however, skepticism that Israel has the ability to destroy Fordo without U.S. assistance, because it would likely require a “bunker buster” bomb to decimate the site, which features operations centers buried some 260 feet underground.

Only U.S. bombers are seen as capable of carrying such 30,000-pound precision-guided bombs. At the same time, any targeting of Fordo would be complicated because the facility sits beneath a mountain near the holy city of Qom and is protected by an extensive, Russian-built missile defense system.

Paris Air Show organizers block off Israeli booths

A black wall that blocks the Israeli pavilions has been erected at the Paris Air Show , Monday, June 16, 2025 in Le Bourget, north of Paris. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

The Paris Air Show taking place this week is widely considered the largest and oldest aerospace and defense industry market event in the world, and it opened with a standoff between French and Israeli officials on Monday.

A large black barrier surrounded Israeli defense industry booths at the show on Monday morning following an order from the French government. Israeli officials said Paris Air Show organizers had ordered Israeli defense companies to leave certain weapons systems out of the display.

Israeli defense officials implied France gave the order for commercial reasons, considering the two nations are competitors in the defense industry. The black barriers surrounded the booths of Israeli Aerospace Industries and Elbit Systems, so that only glimpses of equipment could be seen.

Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv intensifying

Residents react after a Russian missile hit a multi-storey apartment during Russia's combined missile and drone air attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, June 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

While global media attention focuses on the Israel-Iran war, Russian military forces have increased their missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, with an overnight blitz between Monday and Tuesday demolishing a nine-story apartment building in the Ukrainian capital and killing at least 15 people.

Ukrainian officials said more than 150 people were injured by the Russian assault, which featured over 440 drones and 32 missiles that sent explosions echoing across Kyiv for nearly nine hours. The attack signaled an intensified Russian focus on hitting the Ukrainian capital following the recent failure of two rounds of direct peace talks.

Russia launched a similar large-scale drone and missile attack on Kyiv during the first week of June. Some analysts say Moscow seeks to target Ukrainian citizens and destroy Kyiv as retaliation for the massive June 1 Ukrainian drone strike — dubbed “Operation Spiderweb” — that wreaked havoc on several military bases inside Russia.

Opinion: Israel was right to strike Iran, but Washington must now resist overreach

Iran's broken nuclear weapon program illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Israel’s “stunningly successful” strike against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs may be the best example yet of the “burden sharing” approach to foreign policy favored by Mr. Trump, according to Alexander B. Gray, who served in a top national security advisory role during the first Trump administration.

“A militarily and economically advanced regional power whose interests often align with the United States, Israel acted against an imminent Iranian nuclear threat with skill and apparently limited reliance on direct American support,” Mr. Gray writes.

“Washington would be wise,” he writes, “to pocket Israel’s win for the collective West, avoid America’s time-honored tradition of Middle Eastern overreach and redirect strategic bandwidth to the Indo-Pacific.”

Opinion: America must lead the race to seabed minerals

The United States of America mining seabed minerals illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Beneath our oceans lies a “wealth of untapped potential: minerals essential for national security, technology and energy independence,” writes Jorge Martinez, who asserts that “China knows this” and has responded by engaging in its own “relentless push to dominate critical mineral resources.”

“That’s why the U.S. must assert its leadership in seabed mining or acquiesce to China’s dangerous chokehold on global supply chains,” writes Mr. Martinez, director of special projects for the America First Policy Institute. “The stakes couldn’t be higher.”

“Roughly 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals are processed in China, giving the Chinese Communist Party enormous leverage over industries vital to America’s future, including semiconductors and defense systems,” he writes. “As demand skyrockets for data centers, advanced computing capabilities and the next generation of warfighting machinery, the CCP’s dominance over these minerals becomes an increasingly potent geopolitical weapon.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• June 17-22 — International Paris Air Show, Government of France

• June 17 — How Tariffs are Testing America’s Relationship with Southeast Asia, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• June 18 — The Diplomats’ Roundtable: Iran and Israel at War, Atlantic Council

• June 18 — The Future of U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• June 24 — The Need for Speed: Transforming Defense Procurement for a Dangerous World, Hudson Institute

• June 25 — The New IC, Intelligence and National Security Alliance

• June 26 — The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan, Stimson Center

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.