Threat Status for Friday, June 13, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami was among those killed in the wave of airstrikes Israeli military forces unleashed overnight on Iranian nuclear sites and other targets.
… The attack, which Iran called a “declaration of war,” continued into the day Friday, with President Trump saying it would “only get worse” unless Tehran agrees immediately to end its nuclear program.
… Russian ground forces have launched a summertime offensive, pushing into an area of Eastern Ukraine they have not previously occupied.
… A Chinese fighter jet that launched June 7 from one of the two aircraft carriers Beijing has deployed in the Pacific flew dangerously close to a Japanese reconnaissance plane.
… U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee says Muslim countries should give up land to create a Palestinian state.
… The Trump administration’s order to withdraw nonessential personnel from the American embassy in Baghdad emboldens Iran, according to U.S. combat veteran and former intelligence official James Sisco from the risk advisory firm Enodo Global.
… And the U.S. Secret Service anticipates “hundreds of thousands” of parade spectators will line the National Mall Saturday for the Army’s 250th anniversary celebration.
Mr. Trump said Friday that the Israeli military campaign against Iran “will only get worse” and urged Tehran to immediately reach a nuclear deal with the U.S., while Iranian officials, who had already threatened strikes against American outposts in the Middle East, called Israel’s overnight attack a “declaration of war.”
Mr. Trump’s stark statement on social media came just hours after Israel launched a wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, the country’s ballistic missile program, high-level military officials and leading scientists involved with the Islamic Republic’s nuclear research. Iranian state television confirmed the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was killed in the strikes.
The attacks came after months of U.S. efforts to make a deal with Iran to dramatically limit its nuclear program and a day after the top U.N. nuclear watchdog formally chastised Tehran for evading inspections, a move that prompted vows by Iranian leaders to accelerate their uranium enrichment operations. While the Israeli assault has begun, Mr. Trump said Iran still has time to avert even more destruction and suggested diplomacy between his administration and Tehran is still viable.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, emboldened by the Trump administration’s embrace of a more muscular Turkey, is racing to capitalize on the opening by settling scores, making deals and putting his country center stage in the Middle East. Washington Times Special Correspondent Jacob Wirtschafter reports in a dispatch from Istanbul that the Turkish leader’s actions, including reopening ties with Damascus and raising interest rates, reflect a strategy to maximize his leverage during Mr. Trump’s four-year second term.
Analysts say that has created the most permissive international environment Mr. Erdogan has experienced in years, even with economic pressures at home. Under the Biden administration, Ankara was sidelined, F-35 fighter jet negotiations collapsed, U.S. relations with the anti-Turkey Kurdish militias deepened, and Mr. Erdogan’s mediation efforts were dismissed. Mr. Trump’s second term, however, has opened doors.
“Ankara sees this as a window of opportunity, not a permanent realignment,” says Omer Ozkizilcik, a researcher at the Atlantic Council.
Lt. Gen. Chris Mohan, the deputy commanding general and acting commander of U.S. Army Materiel Command, says in an exclusive interview on the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast that 3D printing and service-wide ingenuity are unlocking a new dynamic in which U.S. military personnel can build small tactical drones themselves on a fast timetable.
The 150,000-person command, made up mostly of civilians, is a crucial component of the American military’s ability to project power and the ability to build and repair drones with advanced technology in a military theater could be crucial in a theoretical conflict with China in the Pacific.
It’s at the cutting edge of an effort that will enable the military to build drone bodies, their flight components and microelectronics at sites both in the U.S. and potentially halfway around the world. “Very soon we will have the capability to manufacture the vast majority of the system in-house, with government-owned tech data, if you will,” Gen. Mohan said in the podcast interview.
The Pentagon has contingency plans for numerous situations in Greenland and Panama, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified to the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday. “Our job at the DOD is to have plans, and we have a lot of them,” he said when asked if the Pentagon was prepared for military action in the two locations, which are focal points of the Trump administration’s foreign policy.
The defense secretary clarified that the Pentagon is dedicated to countering Chinese influence in regions such as Panama and Greenland and would not rule out military action. His answers punctuated an already contentious hearing, with Democratic lawmakers accusing him of parroting rhetoric that will alienate U.S. allies.
Mr. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this year that China effectively controlled the Panama Canal. The administration’s focus on Greenland, meanwhile, is seen to stem from a desire to prevent the mineral-rich island — an autonomous territory of Denmark — from falling into China’s sphere of influence.
The terrorists who carried out recent domestic attacks made specific declarations to justify their evil, writes Jason Korman, who summarizes: “In Boulder, Colorado, Mohamed Sabry Soliman yelled, ‘Free Palestine,’ and told authorities he wanted to ‘kill all Zionist people.’ He wounded eight, including an 88-year-old Holocaust survivor. In Washington, Elias Rodriguez gunned down a young couple after an event at a Jewish museum and also declared, ‘Free Palestine.’ Cody Balmer, who firebombed Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s home on Passover, claimed he did so on behalf of Palestinians.
“Attacks like these are on the rise,” writes Mr. Korman, CEO of Gapingvoid Culture Design Group. “In every case, the deranged individuals make clear how warped their mindsets are. They celebrate murder based on an insidious ideology.
“Propagandists know how to use memetics,” he writes. “Through social media, they have been subjecting Americans, especially younger generations, to a daily onslaught of images and phrases directed at changing their minds. Iran, the chief sponsor of Islamist terrorism, is behind some of this. Qatar uses online tools and financial influence to spread pro-terrorist messages. TikTok may be the worst of all. It is for this reason, I believe, that Congress has been seeking to ban the platform.”
• June 26 — The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan, Stimson Center
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