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Threat Status for Friday, May 16, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Ukrainian and Russian officials sat down together in Istanbul, Turkey, on Friday for their first direct peace talks in three years.

… President Trump says no real progress will be made until he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

… A spokesman for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon has an initial framework for a Golden Dome missile defense shield.

… Videos of the entire “Golden Dome for America” event that Threat Status hosted this week in Pentagon City are here.

 … A new report by the Government Accountability Office says Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s nearly yearlong blockade of promotions for U.S. generals and admirals in 2023 didn’t impair military readiness, but it did cause problems for some military families.

… The European Union is investigating NATO’s procurement agency for alleged corruption linked to military contracts.

… Vietnam and Thailand have upgraded their relations to a “strategic partnership.”

… The Iran-backed Houthis are rebuilding after seven weeks of U.S. airstrikes, writes Foundation for Defense of Democracies analyst Bridget Toomey.

… The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to begin screening troops for gender dysphoria during routine checks of medical records.

… And the Senate Armed Services Committee’s top Democrat slammed the Trump administration’s plan to cut Pentagon personnel this week.

Trump pushing for summit with Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting on forthcoming Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Mr. Trump says no progress will be made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets with Mr. Putin, who failed to show up for a highly anticipated summit with Ukrainian officials in Turkey on Thursday.

“Look, nothing is gonna happen until Putin and I get together, OK?” Mr. Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in the United Arab Emirates. “And obviously he wasn’t going to go. … He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there.”

With that as a backdrop, Russian and Ukrainian officials held their first direct peace talks in three years Friday. The talks in Istanbul, Turkey, are expected to yield little immediate progress on stopping the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has agreed to an American plan for an initial 30-day halt to hostilities, but Russia has not signed on and has continued to strike at targets inside Ukraine.

NATO spending debate intensifies amid corruption allegations

Lithuanian Minister of National Defence Dovile Sakaliene presents the draft Law "On the Denunciation of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction" to the members of the Seimas in Vilnius, Lithuania, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said this week that a priority for next month’s NATO summit in The Hague should be for allies to exceed the 2% of GDP goal for military spending all the way to 5%.

Lithuania already spends 4% and plans to increase to at least 5% in 2026, Ms. Sakaliene said Wednesday in a discussion at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. She said that with the Trump administration’s intent to dial back America’s military presence in Europe, a 5% pledge from others needs to happen soon.

Her comments came a day before revelations Thursday that the European Union’s criminal justice agency, Eurojust, is involved in a cross-border investigation into alleged corruption by current and former employees of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). The probe stems from corruption and fraud allegations involving the purchase of military equipment.

Weekly podcast: Is the U.S. ready to build Golden Dome?

Trump’s "Golden Dome" to defend against aerial attacks illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Ben and Guy take listeners behind the scenes of the Threat Status “Golden Dome for America” conference held in Pentagon City this week. They also break down the latest on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. 

The weekly podcast episode, which dropped on Friday morning, features an exclusive interview with retired U.S. Army Special Operations Col. Robert Ryan, director of business development at the Oregon-based defense technology company Teledyne Flir.

Mr. Ryan, who spoke with Threat Status from SOF Week 2025 in Tampa, Florida, reflects on the impact being had by increasingly advanced technology on warfighting. “One thing I never possessed in my formation, all the way up to brigade, was the ability to kill a tank beyond line of sight,” he says. “Now we can have that in a squad. How does that change the maneuver? How does it change the tactics? That application starts to change how we look at war and how we maneuver. This may be a greater deterrent to war than we’ve ever seen.”

Opinion: U.S. needs a reset in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations

In this photo provided by Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade press service, servicemen prepare the drone "Kazhan" that delivers supply and carry heavy bombs, on the front line near Chasiv Yar town, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade via AP)

While the recently stalled peace process between Russia and Ukraine appears to be regaining its footing, with the first direct talks between the countries underway in Istanbul, Washington is in a “unique position to reset its approach, and hopefully, get things right this time,” writes former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Roman Popadiuk.

“The early experience should confirm for the administration that Russia has no interest in working with the United States and Ukraine along the lines the administration expected,” Mr. Popadiuk writes. “The Ukraine peace process should make clear that Russia’s interests do not coincide with those of the United States and the West.”

“Russia seeks total domination of Ukraine, sees the West as an adversary that needs to be replaced by a new order led by Russia and China and is looking to position itself as the dominant force in the European theater,” he writes. “Russian success in Ukraine will only lead to more significant problems for the United States and Europe in the future.”

Opinion: America’s China strategy needs urgent overhaul

China consuming the world illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Former CIA clandestine services officer and Threat Status contributor Daniel N. Hoffman homes in on Sen. Tom Cotton’s recently published book, “Seven Things You Can’t Say About China,” writing that the Arkansas Republican and Senate Select Committee on Intelligence chairman “removes the scales from the eyes of anyone who might question whether China is responsible for this century’s cold war.”

“Mr. Cotton, whom China sanctioned in 2020 after he exposed China’s blatant lies about the origin of the COVID-19 virus, rightly calls out China for being an ‘evil empire’ police state that exercises ruthless control over its citizens and boasts the world’s largest ground forces, navy, coast guard and maritime militia,” writes Mr. Hoffman. “Inducing pro-China self-censorship in Hollywood and professional sports, most notably the NBA, as well as conducting massive espionage and influence operations using social media such as TikTok, China has our military, politicians and private-sector business directly in its crosshairs.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• May 16 — Securing the Future of U.S. Quantum Leadership with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Center for Strategic and International Studies

May 20 — Saudi Arabia in 2025: Vision 2030 Progress Update and U.S.-Saudi Relations, Atlantic Council

• May 21 — AI and Intelligent Transformation of Organizations: An Insightful Conversation with Dr. Feiyu Xu, Stimson Center

• May 22 — U.S.-China Rivalry in the Middle East Conference, Hudson Institute

May 30-June 1 — IISS Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore), International Institute for Strategic Studies

June 3 — CNAS 2025 National Security Conference | America’s Edge: Forging the Future, Center for a New American Security 

June 25 — The New IC, Intelligence and National Security Alliance

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.