Threat Status for Monday, May 12, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
President Trump is headed to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and he is likely to focus heavily on pushing the long-elusive goal of diplomatic normalization with Israel.
… As the trip begins, Mr. Trump said he will accept a luxury jet from the royal family of Qatar to replace Air Force One, raising ethical concerns.
… The White House released more details Monday of the U.S.-China deal to pause tariffs and stave off a major trade war for at least 90 days.
… The delicate ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding.
… The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, also known as the PKK militant group, says it will disband and disarm as part of a new peace initiative with Turkey.
… South Korea’s conservative People Power Party has chosen a candidate who looks set to suffer a major defeat in June 3 elections.
… Members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence are privately weighing changes to the processes for information sharing between national security agencies and cyber firms.
… And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says a West Point professor who quit in protest over the Trump administration’s curriculum changes “will not be missed.”
Mr. Trump departs Washington on Monday for a high-stakes, three-nation tour through the Persian Gulf, starting in Saudi Arabia. With stops in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha, Mr. Trump is signaling a return to transactional diplomacy focused on arms deals, tech investments and countering China and Iran. The president also is expected to push for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The Abraham Accords, which many on Mr. Trump’s team consider to be the signature foreign policy achievement of his first term, marked a diplomatic breakthrough, but the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and ensuing war have complicated further regional realignment.
Saudi Arabia has rejected U.S.-backed proposals to relocate Palestinian civilians and continues to demand a sovereign Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital. A delegation led by White House envoy Steve Witkoff is working to secure a hostage deal in the Gaza Strip before Mr. Trump’s arrival.
A delicate truce struggled to hold Monday between India and Pakistan, with the threat of further clashes between the two nuclear-armed nations looming despite Mr. Trump’s declaration over the weekend of a “full and immediate ceasefire” after an exhaustive round of diplomatic mediation by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance.
India fired missiles at targets inside Pakistan last week, saying the strikes were retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed tourists last month in a portion of Kashmir controlled by India. New Delhi blamed Pakistan for the attack, which left 26 dead, while the Pakistani government denied involvement.
“After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE,” Mr. Trump wrote Saturday on social media. “Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
With a final federal court ruling on the Department of Government Efficiency’s closure of the U.S. Institute of Peace expected to come as early as Wednesday, fired USIP employees say the world and the U.S. will feel the institute’s absence if it is permanently closed.
Sasha Pippenger, who headed USIP’s peace processes team before being fired in March, told Threat Status’ Vaughn Cockayne that malicious state actors will have the upper hand in places such as Africa, South America and the Middle East. “One of the things you’ve seen in the last two decades is the fact that China and Russia have come to a lot of these countries with a value proposition that these countries find more attractive than the American foreign policy value proposition,” Ms. Pippenger said.
Scott Worden, who was the director of USIP’s Afghanistan and Central Asia program, added that the agency’s closure could be a gift to Beijing in the Middle East, where China has been heavily investing for years through its Belt and Road initiative.
China, Russia and North Korea are rapidly expanding their nuclear forces and increasing strategic collaboration, undermining the U.S. ability to deter a nuclear war, according to senior Pentagon officials, who say the challenge of maintaining deterrence is compounded by the reality that the U.S. strategic modernization program is behind schedule and over budget.
The officials testified last week to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces that the U.S. may need to expand its nuclear arsenal and forces to meet the new challenges. “China and Russia are modernizing and diversifying their nuclear forces at a breathtaking pace, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continues to demonstrate its ability to execute a strategic attack,” acting Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear Deterrence Brandi Vann told the subcommittee. “Additionally, our adversaries are increasing their level of coordination and cooperation, which also raises the possibility of simultaneous conflicts with multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.”
Iran also continues to build long-range missiles and expand its nuclear program, raising the prospect of a future nuclear-armed state with intercontinental ballistic missiles. Current U.S. nuclear forces — missiles, bombers and missile submarines — are being modernized as part of Mr. Trump’s proposed $1 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2026. Ms. Vann warned that the modernization may be insufficient for “the realities of the security environment we will face in the future.”
Mr. Trump is headed to the Middle East this week with a full plate and high expectations, writes Bilal Saab, who notes that the president “has already hinted of a ‘very, very big’ announcement before departing, calling it ‘one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject.’”
“I’m guessing it’s about the issue of Saudi-Israeli normalization. If it’s not, it should be,” writes Mr. Saab, senior managing director of TRENDS US and an adjunct professor with Georgetown University. “Mr. Trump wants to halt the fighting in the Gaza Strip, reach a hostage deal and, of course, sign major economic investment agreements with the wealthy Gulf Arab states.”
“He also wants to discuss the issue of Iran’s nuclear program with his Saudi, Emirati and Qatari hosts to assure them that any new nuclear deal won’t ignore their security interests like what happened in 2015 when President Obama concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which left Iran with the ability to build the bomb and sow chaos across the region through its militias,” writes Mr. Saab. “But make no mistake about it: Mr. Trump’s top priority in the region is to expand the Abraham Accords.”
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