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Threat Status for Friday, May 2, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

The postponement of a high-stakes round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks comes as President Trump seeks to ramp up pressure on Tehran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring the Iranians must end all uranium enrichment.

… The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) “Iran Tanker Tracking” project shows Chinese purchases of Iranian oil continued to surge throughout April.

… National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s reported fall from grace turned into a higher-profile job Thursday when Mr. Trump announced he was nominating him as ambassador to the United Nations.

… Authorities in Lebanon warn Hamas will face the “harshest measures” if it carries out any attacks from Lebanon.

… South Korea’s acting president resigned Thursday amid speculation he may launch a last-minute candidacy ahead of early June elections.

… Artificial intelligence company Anthropic wants the U.S. to impose stronger export controls on advanced semiconductors to counter China.

… And Mr. Trump signed an executive order demanding an end to taxpayer funding for National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service.

Rubio: Iran must abandon uranium enrichment

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio talks to the reporters at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Friday, April 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)

Mr. Rubio says Iran must “walk away” from all nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs, taking a public hard line as negotiations between Washington and Tehran hit a roadblock this week. The secretary’s remarks Thursday came amid news that a delicate fourth round of direct U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which had been slated to be held this weekend, were postponed

The fate of the talks hangs in the balance as the Trump administration attempts to ramp up economic and military pressure on Iran and the proxy militias it supports around the Middle East. Ahead of the announcement that this weekend’s talks had been postponed, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Tehran will “pay the consequence” for supporting Houthi militants in Yemen. 

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, suggested he is moving toward a maximum economic pressure posture toward Iran, asserting that any nation or individual who buys Iranian oil will be barred from doing business with the United States. Sources tell Threat Status the president’s comments would be hard to back up, given that China remains a top buyer of Iranian crude.

Hegseth-directed reorganization to eliminate excess generals

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrives before President Donald Trump speaks to members of the Michigan National Guard at Selfridge Air National Guard Base, Tuesday, April 29, 2025, in Harrison Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The Army could eliminate as many as 40 headquarters-level slots for generals and push scores of desk-bound officers and sergeants back to field units as part of a wide-ranging reorganization effort that Mr. Hegseth has ordered for the nation’s largest military service.

Mr. Hegseth this week ordered the Army to streamline its force structure and transform “at an accelerated pace” by divesting itself of outdated and inefficient programs. On Thursday, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said his team will “ruthlessly prioritize” the needs of fighting forces contributing to the service’s lethality.

“The headquarters units across the entire Pentagon – but the Army, too – have grown way too large and they’ve grown way too bloated,” Mr. Driscoll told reporters. “The American soldier joins the Army to put on a helmet, get in their formations, and fight. We have stripped them of that and put them in a headquarters doing useless bureaucratic paperwork.”

Navy secretary tours South Korean, Japanese shipyards

In this photo provided by the South Korea Defense Ministry, South Korean Navy's destroyer Yulgok Yi I, front row right, U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, center, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Umigiri, front row left, sail in formation during a joint naval exercise in international waters off South Korea's southern island of Jeju on April 4, 2023. (South Korea Defense Ministry via AP, File)

U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan met with then-acting South Korean President Han Duck-soo this week to discuss shipbuilding cooperation and visited two major shipyards on the second leg of his Asia trip.

Mr. Trump has made clear his determination to rebuild American shipbuilding capacity and has noted that it may need to be done with allies. South Korea and Japan are the world’s second and third largest shipbuilders by volume, respectively, after China.

During the visit, Mr. Phalen visited HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the country’s largest shipbuilder, and Hanwha Ocean Co., part of the Hanwha Group of companies that includes Korea’s major arms exporter. Hanwha last year acquired Philly Shipyard in Pennsylvania. The Navy secretary visited Hyundai Heavy’s headquarters and a shipyard where Aegis destroyers are being built.

State Dept. disputes China's reef takeover claim

In this photo provided by the National Task Force West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS), a Chinese Coast Guard ship patrols the area as Philippine inter-agency members visit Sandy Cay 2 at the South China Sea on Sunday April 27, 2025. (National Task Force West Philippine Sea via AP) **FILE **

China has not taken over a disputed islet near a key Philippine island despite a provocative Chinese coast guard operation last month to plant a flag on the reef, according to a State Department official who spoke exclusively with Threat Status.

“China’s provocative flag unfurling is detrimental to preserving peace and stability in the region and is the latest example of its repeated escalatory and irresponsible actions in the South China Sea,” the official told National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz. “Contrary to media reports, China has not ‘seized’ Sandy Cay and the feature remains unoccupied.”

State media in Beijing recently said Chinese coast guard vessels carried out a “maritime control” activity in mid-April over what Beijing calls Tiexian Reef and the Philippines calls Sandy Cay.

Opinion: CIA must gauge how Chinese military might use lessons it is learning from Ukraine war

China's military learning from Russia’s Ukraine war illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Collecting information on China’s plans and intentions toward Taiwan is a “high-priority requirement for the U.S. intelligence community,” writes Daniel N. Hoffman, a retired CIA clandestine service officer and Threat Status contributor.

“China’s tactical interest in Ukraine offers an advantageous window to gauge the lessons Beijing is learning and, for the CIA in particular, based on reports from human sources, how the Chinese military might translate those lessons into practice,” writes Mr. Hoffman.

“For the Trump administration,” he writes, “the presence of Chinese and North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian soldiers with Iranian drones in the air striking Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets, there is an auspicious opportunity to drive a wedge between Russia and its axis of dictatorship allies by ensuring Mr. Putin gains no lasting military or economic advantage from his barbaric war on Ukraine.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• May 7 — EmTech AI, MIT Technology Review

• May 5-8 — SOF Week 2025: The Asymmetric Strategic Option for a Volatile World, U.S. Special Operations Command & Global SOF Foundation

May 7 — Revitalizing the Defense Industrial Base for the 21st Century, The Heritage Foundation

• May 13 — Golden Dome for America: From Inception to Implementation, Threat Status

• May 14 — The Spy and the State with Jeffrey Rogg, International Spy Museum

• June 2-4 — AI+ Expo, Special Competitive Studies Project

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.