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NATSEC-TECH THURSDAY — April 24, 2025: Every Thursday’s edition of Threat Status highlights the intersection between national security and advanced technology, from AI to cyber threats and the battle for global data dominance.

Share the daily Threat Status newsletter and the weekly NatSec-Tech Wrap with friends who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor or lead Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace.

Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen say they have shot down three MQ-9 Predator drones within the past week.

… An overnight Russian military strike on Kyiv involving more than 250 drones and ballistic missiles was the biggest attack on the Ukrainian capital in nearly a year.

… Hours after the attack, President Trump issued a message on social media pleading with Russian President Vladimir Putin to “STOP!”

… Chinese military capabilities relating to coordinated drone swarms for both weapons strikes and intelligence gathering are advancing.

… America’s top artificial intelligence labs are “almost certainly” penetrated by Chinese spies, according to a groundbreaking investigation by Gladstone AI.

… A Stanford investigation says DeepSeek AI was built by homegrown Chinese talent.

…The Center for a New American Security wants the U.S. to get “more aggressive” in the competition with China over who will lead in the development of artificial intelligence capabilities.

…Cybercrime cost victims more than $16 billion last year — a 33% increase from 2023 — according to a new FBI estimate.

… And Iran’s military has “very likely endeavored to implement AI,” although its operational use is unproven, says a new report from Recorded Future. 

Chinese military advances drone swarm warfare

Members of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force march in formation during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)

The People’s Liberation Army is making progress on the use of coordinated drone swarms consisting of large numbers of small, unmanned aircraft in combat for both weapons strikes and intelligence gathering, according to a new report published by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a U.S. Air Force think tank.

The PLA also is building hybrid drone warfare capabilities, identified in the report as manned-unmanned teaming, or MUM-T, that combines the use of drones with ground-, air- and sea-based weapons systems. “Though neither is fully realized, the PLA’s operational thought surrounding [unmanned aerial vehicle] swarm tactics and applications is likely more mature and more likely to be deployed in a near-term conflict than MUM-T techniques,” the report said.

The assessment comes after the leader of the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Sam Paparo, said recently that his forces plan to use large numbers of low-cost drones against Chinese military forces during any future PLA invasion of Taiwan. Thousands of aerial and underwater drones would be used by American forces as an initial holding action until other warships and warplanes can be moved to the region.

Top American AI labs ‘almost certainly’ penetrated by Chinese spies

China using AI to create troll armies. A recent analysis by Taiwan AI Labs found the "involvement of 9,080 troll accounts" involved in debates on social media among U.S. lawmakers, technology experts and digital communities over the potential ban by the United States government of the China-based TikTok platform. File photo credit: Pixels Hunter via Shutterstock.

America’s top artificial intelligence labs are on the precipice of unlocking superintelligence that can surpass humans, but their work is being watched by Chinese spies, according to an investigation by Gladstone AI, a Virginia-based company that has aided the U.S. government in probing vulnerabilities at American AI labs.

Such frontier labs are “almost certainly” already penetrated by the Chinese Communist Party, according to the probe. “Right now, the greatest danger is not that the U.S. will fall behind China in the race to superintelligence. Until we’ve secured the labs, there is no lead for us to lose,” Gladstone AI’s Jeremie Harris and Edouard Harris wrote in a report released this week. 

“Just the opposite: as we’ve seen, U.S. national security agencies don’t constitutionally spy on American companies or access their technology illicitly, but the CCP has no such scruples. Under the status quo, therefore, advances at private U.S. labs may lead to advances in CCP capabilities before they lead to advances in U.S. national security capabilities.” 

The labs know the situation is dire, too. One lab’s researcher told Gladstone AI that a running joke inside their team is that they are “the leading Chinese AI lab because probably all of our [stuff] is being spied on.”

Stanford looks inside DeepSeek’s AI breakthroughs

The Icons for the smartphone apps DeepSeek and ChatGPT are seen on a smartphone screen in Beijing, Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

The sudden success of the China-based firm DeepSeek AI in creating a powerful model that compares favorably to Western AI models relied mainly on Chinese talent, according to a new report by Amy Zegart and Emerson Johnston with the Technology Policy Accelerator at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, which describes the situation as an “early-warning indicator” for America.

“More than half of [DeepSeek researchers] never left China for schooling or work, demonstrating the country’s growing capacity to develop world-class AI talent through an entirely domestic pipeline,” the duo wrote. “And while nearly a quarter of DeepSeek researchers gained some experience at U.S. institutions during their careers, most returned to China, creating a one-way knowledge transfer that benefits China’s AI ecosystem.”

Skepticism about DeepSeek’s rapid rise has swirled since it unveiled a powerful model earlier this year. Western AI experts have viewed with suspicion the Chinese firm’s statements of being low cost. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is among those who have accused DeepSeek of stealing American intellectual property.

China’s advances in the talent needed for AI research have not gone unnoticed by the national security community. The Center for a New American Security published a paper this week arguing that the U.S. must get “more aggressive” in pursuing a lead over China in AI via the metrics of compute capacity, data, institutions and talent.

National security questions swirl as Musk prepares to step back from DOGE

Elon Musk flashes his T-shirt that reads "DOGE" to the media as he walks on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on March 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana) **FILE**

Elon Musk says he will step away from the Department of Government Efficiency next month, putting distance between himself and the Trump administration as Tesla’s profits dip. Mr. Musk told investors on a Tesla call this week that his “time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly,” although he will continue to dedicate one to two days a week “for as long as the president would like.”

He acknowledged during the call that Tesla has received “some blowback” since his affiliation began with the Trump administration.

Whether the development will impact the pursuit by other Musk-related tech endeavors — most notably SpaceX — of major national security government contracts is unclear. Reuters reported last week that SpaceX is a front-runner in the competition for contracts to build a “Golden Dome” missile defense shield called for by Mr. Trump.

House intel leader favors greater Havana syndrome probe

Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Ark., speaks during a hearing on Capitol Hill, May 17, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

The chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence says he supports a new intelligence community investigation into brain injuries suffered by diplomatic and intelligence personnel — injuries blamed on what has come to be known as the Havana syndrome.

“The Biden administration’s [intelligence community] was wrong in its previous intelligence assessment, and we are working to set the record straight,” Rep. Rick Crawford said in a statement this week. The Arkansas Republican has previously said there is “reliable evidence to suggest” Havana syndrome is the result of some type of foreign attack.

Earlier this month, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard set up a new panel called the Director’s Initiatives Group to examine issues related to intelligence agencies, including the handling of anomalous health incidents. U.S. intelligence agencies have come under fire from victims of the incidents after analysts concluded the cause was very likely not the result of attacks by hostile nations.

Threat Status Events Radar

• April 25 — A Discussion on Global Counterspace Trends, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• April 28-May 1 — RSAC 2025, RSA Conference

• April 29 — The Stakes of Sino-American AI Competition, Center for a New American Security

• April 29-May 1 — Modern Day Marine Convention

• April 30 — Rebuilding America’s Maritime Industrial Base with Sens. Mark Kelly and Todd Young, Hudson Institute

• April 30 The Hill & Valley Forum

• April 30 — Robins Air Force Base Tech Expo, NCSI

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ryan Lovelace are here to answer them.