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Threat Status for Wednesday, April 23, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

The U.S.-led effort to end the Russia-Ukraine war could be falling apart. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled his trip to London to meet with European officials about a ceasefire plan. Vice President J.D. Vance indicated that Washington is ready to “walk away” if Russia and Ukraine don’t accept a proposal to “freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today.”

… Those developments came just hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will never accept a deal that recognizes Russian control over Crimea, as proposed by the U.S. With both sides digging in, it’s not clear how the U.S. and Ukraine can bridge that massive divide.

… After the death of Pope Francis, China signaled that it wants to improve relations with the Vatican.

… President Trump is expected to speak with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the terror attack in Kashmir that left at least 26 people dead.

… India is hunting for the perpetrators of that assault, with tens of thousands of police and soldiers fanning out across the region.

… A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to revive Voice of America, Radio Free Asia and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks.

… The Army, in partnership with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, opened a new facility to bolster production of high-explosive 155 mm artillery projectiles.

… And the European Union levied huge fines on Apple and Meta as they step up enforcement of digital competition rules. 

Major State Department shake-up

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives a joint press conference with Suriname's President Chan Santokhi in Paramaribo, Suriname, Thursday, March 27, 2025. (Nathan Howard/Pool photo via AP) ** FILE **

Mr. Rubio rolled out a long-awaited reorganization Tuesday to build what he called an America-first State Department. A chart posted on the State Department’s website offers a detailed look at the new structure. And on social media posts, Mr. Rubio said 132 offices would be closed worldwide and that undersecretaries are to cut personnel by 15%.

It’s worth noting that the Bureau of African Affairs is expected to continue operations under the reorganization. Some news reports, citing a leaked memo of an executive order to overhaul the department, said the bureau would be slashed entirely. There are other key distinctions between the actual moves made Tuesday and the reports of the past several days, which Mr. Rubio called “fake news.”

But there are still significant changes. The reorganization chart eliminates the Office of Global Change, which is responsible for implementing and managing U.S. international policy on climate change, as well as the Office of Global Women’s Issues. Democracy, human rights and religious freedom are to be consolidated into one bureau.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce did not answer whether the State Department will continue to operate programs to counter extremism, promote human rights and prevent war crimes, which do not appear on the new organizational chart. 

'Alarm bells' over Trump's Iran deal?

This combination image of pictures shows President Donald Trump, left, addressing a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025, and a handout of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attending a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis - Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File)

The U.S. and Iran will begin “expert-level” nuclear talks this weekend. And some analysts believe that’s a bad sign.

“I think alarm bells should be going off,” Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells Threat Status.

The latest round of negotiations, set to take place in Oman, will include technical teams from both countries. That suggests that Washington and Tehran will be hashing out specific terms of a deal, perhaps including the level to which Iran would be allowed to continue enriching uranium. In other words: Iran’s nuclear program could continue. The U.S. wouldn’t insist that Iran “eliminate” its nuclear enrichment entirely, as Middle East envoy and lead American negotiator Steve Witkoff recently said explicitly in a social media post.

It’s still early, of course. This is only the third time that delegations from Tehran and the Trump administration have met. And Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff have taken a hard line publicly on the kind of agreement they’re looking for.

But there’s a growing sense in national security circles that Iran believes it will be allowed to maintain its nuclear program in some form, or else it wouldn’t be sending an expert-level technical team to the negotiating table. Remember, Iran has publicly said its nuclear enrichment is nonnegotiable

Golden Dome needs 'intergenerational' support

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system is displayed during a Made in America showcase on the South Lawn of the White House, July 15, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Mr. Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield is a goal that probably won’t be fully realized by the time he leaves office. But national security insiders say it’s an investment in American national security for the long term.

Researchers at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies praised the idea behind the Golden Dome project at a launch event panel for the think tank’s Air and Missile Defense Program. But to be successful, it’s a concept that will need broad, intergenerational support from the defense industry, elected officials and the public for decades to come.

Mr. Trump signed an executive order this year laying out the Golden Dome’s objectives. The next-generation missile shield, which will rely heavily on space-based interceptors, will be designed to protect against ballistic hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles and other next-generation aerial attacks from adversaries, including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Lee Jae-myung front-runner in South Korean election

South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, center, and his party members shout slogans during a rally calling for impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's dismissal at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, March 19, 2025. The letters read "Dismiss Yoon Suk Yeol." (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon has a new report from Seoul, where Lee Jae-myung, former head of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, appears to be on a glide path toward the presidency.

This presidential contest, of course, came much earlier than expected. The election wasn’t scheduled until 2027 but was fast-tracked after former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s removal from office on April 3 following his ill-fated martial law declaration.

Recent polling shows Mr. Lee has an approval rating of 50.2%, well ahead of the candidate in second place, Kim Moon-soo of the ruling conservative People Power Party, at 12.2%, Mr. Salmon reports. Barring a major shift, Mr. Lee appears set to capture the presidency on June 3. 

Opinion: Fresh foreign policy ideas needed

Trump's foreign policy illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

The Trump administration is producing real results on a number of fronts. But on some key foreign policy issues, there’s a great deal of uncertainty.

Jed Babbin, national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times, makes the case in his latest piece. From mixed messages on the U.S. goal in Iran nuclear talks to the long-past Feb. 15 deadline for Hamas to release all of its remaining hostages, Mr. Babbin argues that Mr. Trump needs fresh ideas for how to deal with those two thorny issues — not to mention the Russia-Ukraine war.

“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine need to quickly develop new options on Ukraine, Iran and Hamas,” he writes

Threat Status Events Radar

• April 28-May 1 — RSAC 2025, RSA Conference 

• April 29 — The Stakes of Sino-American AI Competition, Center for a New American Security

• April 29-May 1Modern Day Marine Convention

• April 30 The Hill & Valley Forum

• April 30 — Robins Air Force Base Tech Expo, NCSI

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