Threat Status for Tuesday, April 15, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
A second U.S. carrier strike group is in Middle East waters, while more suspected American airstrikes hit Yemen’s Houthi rebels early Tuesday.
… The show of force comes as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will continue this weekend in Italy, though President Trump suggests that Iran is moving too slowly.
… The White House says that China is blocking, or at least delaying, the export of vital rare earth minerals used in military equipment, cars and electronics.
… Mr. Trump again pledged to show “flexibility” with his tariffs policy amid the unfolding U.S.-China trade war.
… Vice President J.D. Vance told the European news outlet UnHerd that “it’s not good for Europe to be the permanent security vassal of the United States.”
… Israeli forces said they discovered a weapons cache hidden inside a school in the southern Gaza Strip.
… A top Shin Bet official was arrested Tuesday as part of Israel’s probe into a major classified information leak.
… Moscow is defending its Palm Sunday missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy.
… And the Honoring Our Heroes banquet in Washington on Monday night, organized by the South Korean government, paid tribute to U.S. veterans of the Korean War.
Questions over the eventual fate of deported Maryland man Kilmar Abrego Garcia are still swirling after Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said Monday that he would not send him back to the U.S. Mr. Bukele, who met with Mr. Trump at the White House, said his government now has jurisdiction over Mr. Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran.
The comments from the Salvadoran president introduce more uncertainty into an already complex legal and political situation. A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to return Mr. Abrego Garcia. But if he is under the jurisdiction of a foreign government and not the U.S., it’s not clear what power the judge has to enforce the order.
Mr. Abrego Garcia, an illegal immigrant to the U.S., was deported to El Salvador on March 15. Since then, he has been held at the Terrorism Confinement Center there. He was part of three planeloads of migrants that the U.S. sent out that day. Some of them, the U.S. said, were Salvadoran citizens and members of MS-13, a vicious gang based in El Salvador. The country said it wanted the gang members back for intelligence purposes.
The administration has admitted the deportation was a “mistake.” And Sen. Chris Van Hollen, Maryland Democrat, says he’ll travel to El Salvador to check on Mr. Abrego Garcia.
There could be a major unintended consequence to the Trump administration’s downsizing of the federal government: China is trying to recruit some former U.S. officials as spies.
National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has an inside look at this troubling story, which centers on a public warning from the National Counterintelligence and Security Center about Beijing’s intentions.
“Foreign intelligence entities, particularly those in China, are targeting current and former U.S. government employees for recruitment by posing as consulting firms, corporate headhunters, think tanks and other entities on social and professional networking sites,” the NCSC said in its guidance, which was echoed by the FBI in a post on X.
China could be targeting former employees at the CIA, U.S. Agency for International Development, Defense Department or other arms of the federal government. Military personnel are also a clear target.
The case of Navy Chief Petty Officer Thomas Zhao was mentioned in the counterintelligence report as an example. He was sentenced to prison in January 2024 for providing sensitive U.S. military information to a Chinese intelligence officer in exchange for more than $14,000 in cash. He was recruited through a social media chat group on stock trading.
It certainly sounds like a highly ambitious undertaking: A comprehensive space-based missile shield that can protect the U.S. from intercontinental ballistic missile and hypersonic weapon attacks.
But the “Golden Dome” — a top national security priority of the Trump administration — is not only feasible, but can be built and deployed right now. That’s the argument from Tory Bruno, CEO of United Launch Alliance, who explains in a new piece for The Washington Times exactly what a 21st-century American missile shield should look like.
“Israel’s Iron Dome system is quite good, but the United States has one big challenge: geography,” he writes. “Israel is only 85 miles wide versus America’s 2,600 miles. Don’t worry. It turns out that we already have the most capable missile defense technology in the world. We just need more of them … plus one extra for the dreaded hypersonic.”
“The United States requires a three-layered defense: an ICBM killer that takes a first shot and efficiently covers the entire country, a sea-based system off our coasts, and a regional defender providing an underlay for population centers,” Mr. Bruno writes, adding that the first elements of the Golden Dome could be deployed “tomorrow” if Congress chooses to act.
There are new details about exactly how two Chinese soldiers ended up fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces. One of those soldiers, Wang Guangjun, 34, said at a press conference in Kyiv on Monday that during the COVID-19 pandemic, he was unemployed and desperate for work. And during that time, he was inspired by Russian propaganda videos on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, also owned by ByteDance.
“Because in China, the status and social identity of a Chinese soldier is very high, especially in the hearts of the public. So in China, every male has this dream of success,” Mr. Wang said. “When you are in China and have no chance of being a soldier, and you see this kind of opportunity, you feel a stirring of the heart. And I came from that kind of motivation.”
The two men said they feel they were misled by Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, has dismissed revelations that have emerged in the wake of the capture of the two men as “political manipulation and hype.”
One of the biggest unanswered questions swirling around U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is whether the Trump administration will seek the full, permanent end of Tehran’s plutonium production and uranium enrichment, or accept something short of that. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff offered some clues Monday night.
He told Fox News that Iran does not need to enrich uranium past 3.67%, if indeed the country’s nuclear program is only meant for peaceful purposes, as it claims.
“In some circumstances, they’re at 60%, in other circumstances 20%. That cannot be,” Mr. Witkoff said. “You do not need to run — as they claim — a civil nuclear program where you’re enriching past 3.67%.”
The U.S. approach, he added, will focus heavily on “verification” of Iran’s uranium enrichment levels, and weaponization. In other words, the U.S., presumably in coordination with international watchdogs, will want thorough and routine inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities.
Mr. Trump criticized Iran on Monday for “tapping us along” on negotiations. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seemingly endorsed the negotiations but said his country remains pessimistic about the U.S.
Moving forward, it’s still not clear whether the U.S. will push Iran to end its support for terrorist groups across the Middle East, or whether it will try to break Tehran’s deepening ties with Russia, China and North Korea. But Mr. Witkoff’s comments offer some clarity as to what the administration hopes to achieve heading into another round of talks this weekend in Italy.
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