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Threat Status for Monday, April 14, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

President Trump says a tariff framework for computers, smartphones and semiconductors is coming “very soon,” a clear signal that the carveout on Chinese electronics won’t last long.

… But the president also said he’s committed to “a certain flexibility” as the U.S.-China trade war escalates and fears mount that electronics prices for consumers could skyrocket. 

… Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the tariffs on electronics will be specifically tailored “to make sure that those products get reshored.”  

… The historic antitrust trial of Meta begins today and could ultimately force the tech giant to break off Instagram and WhatsApp. 

… Cody Balmer, 38, of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, will face charges of attempted murder, terrorism, arson and assault after authorities accused him of an arson attack on Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence.

… Eight people were killed and more than a dozen wounded when a roadside bomb struck a passenger bus in northeastern Nigeria. 

… Another round of suspected U.S. airstrikes targeted Yemen’s Houthi rebels early Monday.

… Pop star Katy Perry, CBS host Gayle King and four other women blasted off Monday on an all-female space flight launched by Jeff Bezos’ company, Blue Origin. 

… The Trump administration isn’t backing down despite heavy pressure from judges to bring back deportee Kilmar Abrego Garcia from El Salvador. 

… And Israel and Hamas are reportedly weighing another truce proposal that would include the release of more Israeli hostages still held by the Palestinian terrorist group. 

U.S., Iran will return to the nuclear negotiating table next weekend

Omani security personnel watch a convoy believed to be carrying U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat, Oman, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

American and Iranian negotiators met in Oman over the weekend for the first round of talks aimed at striking a new deal to limit Tehran’s nuclear program. And the meeting seems to have been a success, if for no other reason than the two nations agreed to meet again next weekend. The second round of talks reportedly will take place in Rome.

In Oman, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the nuclear talks are a sign that Iran is “giving diplomacy a genuine chance.” The White House said that direct communication between the two sides “was a step forward in achieving a mutually beneficial outcome.”

There are a host of unanswered questions about exactly what kind of a deal the Trump administration will accept. Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. should trust the Iranian regime at all.

But it’s clear that the administration wants a deal to rein in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, as the only other alternative seems to be military strikes by either the U.S. or Israel to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. 

Analysts generally agree that right now, Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts are at a point where it could make enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon within days. The construction of a nuclear bomb itself would take significantly longer.

Time for Russia to 'put up or shut up' on Ukraine ceasefire?

The city center in the aftermath of the Russia's missile attack that killed at least 21 civilians in Sumy, Ukraine, Sunday, April 13, 2025. (AP Photo)

Russia’s Palm Sunday attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy, which killed more than 30 people, is fueling questions about whether Moscow is serious about pursuing a ceasefire deal to end its war in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the missile assault “horrifying” but said it’s a reminder why the administration is “putting so much time and effort into trying to end this war and achieve a just and durable peace.”

Could the president be losing patience with the Kremlin? He previously vented that he was angry at Russian President Vladimir Putin. Over the weekend, he said “there’s a point at which you have to either put up or shut up,” and it seems like that point may be coming soon. And remember that the White House is weighing a major, gloves-off economic punch against Russia’s oil exports. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that Mr. Trump should visit Ukraine and see firsthand the destruction caused by Mr. Putin’s invasion. 

Iwo Jima tribute stirs tensions in the Pacific

Behind imposing gates, amid cherry trees and traditional architecture in Japan, stands the Yasukuni Shrine, dating to 1869. No bodies lie here. Per Shinto beliefs, it enshrines the souls of some 2.46 million killed fighting for Japan. (Andrew Salmon/The Washington Times)

It’s been nearly 80 years since Japan surrendered and Allied forces took Berlin, ending World War II. But the ghosts of that conflict are still stirring tensions in the Pacific.

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon has a fascinating deep dive on the cultural and geopolitical implications still at play, eight decades after the war’s end. Case in point: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on his recent Pacific trip sparked a dispute with Beijing after his comments honoring American soldiers killed at Iwo Jima.

“The bravery of those who fought … American and Japanese alike, endures in history,” he said, adding that the United States and Japan share a “warrior ethos.”

Japan is a crucial American ally in the region. But Mr. Salmon reports that the praise of Japan, which many across the Indo-Pacific region feel has failed to acknowledge its responsibility for the horrors of World War II, sparked a bit of a backlash, especially in Beijing.  

“Washington is eager to portray Tokyo as a ‘front-line fortress’ against China,” read an article in the Chinese state-controlled media outlet Global Times. “Yet Japan has yet to fully confront or atone for its wartime crimes.”

Fentanyl traffickers made $1.4 billion last year

A display of fentanyl and meth that was seized by Customs and Border Protection officers at the Nogales Port of Entry, is shown during a media presentation in Nogales, Ariz. (Mamta Popat/Arizona Daily Star via AP, File)

How lucrative is the production and distribution of fentanyl? It generated about $1.4 billion last year alone, according to a new report from the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has all the details on the study, which highlights how most of that $1.4 billion was funneled through U.S. banks. It also sheds light on the countries responsible.

“Mexico and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the top two foreign countries identified in subject address fields of [Bank Secrecy Act] reports analyzed, play key roles in the production of fentanyl and subsequent money laundering activity,” the study reads in part.

The report identified the main cartels involved in the fentanyl trade as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion, both labeled as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S. The two cartels largely control the fentanyl supply chain in Mexico and use precursor chemicals and manufacturing equipment from China. The drug is produced in clandestine laboratories, the report said.

Opinion: The 'third option' to deal with Iran's nuclear program

Iran nuclear weapons illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Despite the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, it still may seem like the two most likely outcomes are a nuclear-armed Iran or direct military strikes by either the U.S. or Israel. But there’s another option, one that centers on the U.S. capitalizing on the pro-democracy movement bubbling beneath the surface across Iran.

That’s the argument made by Lisa Daftari, editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, who writes in a new piece for The Washington Times that the “third option” could help replace Iran’s theocratic regime, a regime that foments conflict across the Middle East and supports a network of terrorist groups.

“Beneath the surface of the regime’s authoritarian grip is a pulsating and exponentially growing heartbeat of defiance. Iranian activists risk everything for a chance at building a secular, democratic Iran,” she writes. “Their voices, now resounding louder than ever, fuel ongoing protests demanding basic individual freedoms and human rights. This defiance hasn’t weakened; it has only intensified.

“It’s time we answer their call and support the Iranian people, our most valuable ally in building a free, secular and thriving Iran,” she writes. “Neither bombs nor blind appeasement will bring lasting peace to the region, but empowering a nation’s people to decide their future just might. It’s time to choose the third option.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• April 14 — Tech Cold War: The Geopolitics of Technology, Stimson Center

• April 15 — Enhancing U.S.-ROK Space Cooperation, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• April 16 — Navigating the U.S.-PRC Tech Competition in the Global South, Atlantic Council 

• April 17 — Persistent Access, Persistent Threat: Ensuring Military Mobility Against Malicious Cyber Actors, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• April 22 — Ally to Adversary? The United States and Europe in Trump’s Second Term, Brookings Institution

• April 29 — The Stakes of Sino-American AI Competition, Center for a New American Security

• April 30 The Hill & Valley Forum

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.