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Threat Status for Friday, March 28, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Iran says it’s ready for indirect nuclear talks in response to President Trump’s letter, but warns that the use of American military force if talks collapse would have dire consequences for the U.S. and its allies.

… Sources tell Threat Status the prospect of talks could be derailed or accelerated by already increasing clashes U.S. and Israeli forces are engaged in with Iran-backed proxies. Israeli forces attacked the Lebanese capital of Beirut Friday for the first time since November.

… Russian President Vladimir Putin says Mr. Trump’s push to control Greenland is rooted in history, but also vows to uphold Moscow’s own interests in the Arctic.

…Defense Secretary Hegseth visited Guam, calling U.S. troops there the “tip of the spear” for power projection in Asia.

… British officials want to transform the U.K.’s defense industry by increasing military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by April 2027 and reaching 3% in the next Parliament.

… The superintendent of West Point says he’s found two violations of Mr. Trump’s ban on “woke” classes in the academy’s curriculum.

… And video showing the arrest of a Turkish graduate student by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Massachusetts who has supported anti-Israel causes has gone viral.

Podcast: Inside the Chinese military's dangerous 'false optimism'

Then-incoming U.S. Army Pacific commander, Gen. Robert Brown, left, receives the command flag from Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Daniel Allyn during a change of command ceremony at Fort Shafter, Hawaii, Wednesday, May 4, 2016. (AP Photo/Audrey McAvoy) ** FILE **

China’s rapid military buildup in recent years has given the communist country deep confidence in the capabilities of its own armed forces, according to the former commander of U.S. Army Pacific, who tells Threat Status in an exclusive interview that a sense of “false optimism” could cause Beijing to make a major gamble militarily — with increasingly diminished fear of America’s response — that could spark a global war.

“They’re very aggressive. I’ve worked many years, over 30 years, with China and I’ve seen that they used to fear us and respect us. In my opinion, they don’t fear us anymore,” retired Army Gen. Robert Brooks Brown, now the president of the Association of the United States Army told the Threat Status weekly podcast during AUSA’s Global Force Symposium & Exposition in Alabama.

His comments came as the defense secretary visited the Pacific this week. Mr. Hegseth warned that island states near Guam are seeing growing encroachment from China and that the U.S. is standing with allied states to defend against China’s ambitions.

Advanced tech transforming how Army builds and fixes weapons of war

U.S. troopers alight from a US Army CH-47 carrying American and Philippine troops as it lands at the Philippines' northernmost town of Itbayat, Batanes province during a joint military exercise on Monday, May 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila) **FILE**

U.S. Army leaders say rapid technological advances are poised to eliminate some of the massive logistical hurdles confronting a U.S. military operating thousands of miles from American shores.

Consider this scenario in a theoretical future U.S. clash with China in the Pacific: A critical component of an Army High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, breaks or malfunctions in the middle of the conflict. Under current realities, the system could be offline for days or longer as replacement parts are shipped in, potentially from all the way back in the continental U.S.

Military officials attending AUSA in Huntsville, Alabama, this week say an alternative future is on the near horizon — one in which a combination of drones, 3D printing and even virtual reality headsets help get the HIMARS back into the fight quickly. Lt. Gen. Chris Mohan, deputy commanding general and acting commander of U.S. Army Materiel Command, told an audience at AUSA that “we’re much closer to this future state than we’ve ever been.”

North Korea’s Kim supervises AI-enabled drone strike tests

In this photo provided Thursday, March 27, 2025, by the North Korean government, its leader Kim Jong-un, center left in a black jacket, stands by what appeared to be a large reconnaissance drone at an undisclosed location in North Korea, earlier this week. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

North Korean state media photos this week showed Kim Jong-un aboard an apparent Airborne Early Warning and Control System aircraft, believed to be the first AEW&CS plane deployed by the secretive state. Pyongyang’s Korea Central News Agency also said Mr. Kim later oversaw tests of AI-enabled suicide attack drones.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports from Seoul that the AEW&CS plane looks to have Russian fingerprints. A specialist media site, The War Zone, said after an examination of the photos of Mr. Kim’s new plane, that it appeared to be based on a Russian Il-76 “Candid” cargo aircraft and shared some features with Russia’s A-50 “Mainstay” AEW&C model.

Mr. Kim ordered a massive upgrade to his military in both firepower and technology terms at a party congress in 2021. His troops have recently gained cutting-edge first-hand experience in millennial warfare, allying with Russian troops to battle Ukrainian forces in Kursk. U.S. intelligence sources tell Threat Status Mr. Kim is likely receiving Russian military technology in exchange.

Opinion: Congress must curb defense contractors’ ties to China

Defense contractors' ties to China illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Congress needs to “impose more rules on government leaders and contractors — like Elon Musk, the indispensable leader of the Department of Government Efficiency and space and national security contractor for the federal government — to better protect the U.S. from China,” according to retired U.S. Air Force Col. Robert L. Maness.

“I’m a fan of Mr. Musk,” Mr. Maness writes. “However, concerns about Musk’s ties to China — however unintentional their potential effects on the U.S. may be — are not just partisan noise; they are authentic, bipartisan, and rooted in national security risks.”

He adds that “the solution is not to sideline Mr. Musk or similar companies and businesses that face the same concerns. It is to implement policies that ensure his business dealings do not conflict with U.S. national security interests. Congress must establish clear safeguards that protect both Elon Musk and the homeland from the CCP’s far-reaching influence.”

Opinion: Trump confronts China’s mineral extortion

Trump and China's mineral supply domination illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Mineral demand is “exploding, driven by the rapid uptake of highly mineral-intensive, advanced technologies — from lithium-ion batteries to semiconductors at the heart of the AI revolution — making this alarming situation all but untenable, writes Rich Nolan, who cites recent government analysis showing the U.S. is import-reliant on 40 of 50 critical minerals, with China as the leading producer of 30. 

Mr. Trump has signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to “jumpstart domestic production of the minerals we so desperately need,” writes Mr. Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association. “The order will expand and prioritize mineral development on the nation’s vast public lands, address crippling permitting challenges and provide a variety of much-needed financial support to level the playing field for domestic mining and processing projects that have struggled against overseas anti-competitive practices.”

“Defanging Chinese mineral extortion and rebuilding American mineral security will require the kind of focus and long-term commitment that is troublingly elusive in Washington,” he writes. “This executive order finally confronts the challenge with the tools and urgency the crisis demands.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• March 28 — Accelerating National Security AI Adoption, NCF and NSA

• March 28 — Building a Sustainable and Successful Semiconductor Ecosystem Under the Trump Administration, Hudson Institute

• March 31 — Fully Exploiting Autonomous Military Systems, Hudson Institute

• April 3 — Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: What are They? How will They Work? The Brookings Institution

April 7 — Maximum Support: Operationalizing the Other Iran Policy, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

April 10-11 — Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats, Vanderbilt University

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